Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

The last time the Fed cut the Fed funds rate, the Fed easing monetary policy started with Janet Yellen in Q4 ’16 and ended with Jay Powell in late 2018. The TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...

The 10-year notes, or "ZN's" are nearing some key resistance. The 50dma and 200dma (orange/red) moving averages have been intertwined for most of 2024 as price action has consolidated in this tight...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...

Here we go again. After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data fueled the incentive for the bond market to reassess the view that the Federal Reserve will...

After a huge down move that began in December 2021, the long bonds or TLT have had a few shallow short-covering rallies, but not much more than that. The “higher-for-longer” for interest rates...

A ‘fair-value’ estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield was steady in April while the market level for the benchmark rate continued to rise well above the theoretical level. But trading...

The stock market keeps on pushing higher despite. Against this backdrop, investors should exercise caution due to high valuations and market cyclicality. Bonds offer attractive returns and can reduce...

The below is Briefing.com’s weekly economic data table. April ’24 PPI and April ’24 CPI are due out Tuesday, May 14th, and Wednesday, May 15th, respectively.Shelter or OER (owners...

Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately – with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets. Year to date, this slice...

Government bond yields and interest rates have been rising all around the world. And investors aren’t quite sure what to make of it.Perhaps there is some complacency that has set in after years...

Bonds are continuing to rally into a fantastic bull trap. Here is the /ZB: The easier-to-trade instrument TLT is obviously sporting the same pattern. We’re just about to close that gap, which...