Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...

Here’s the issue with all of the social media and the volumes of research on the bond markets: it’s not just whether interest rates (yields) are rising or falling, the shape of the...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?"So far, following the FOMC decision, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report...

The 10-year Treasury yield respected the 5% level – this is not a big surprise. However, to join the cheers that the only way for the yield is down, I need to see a confirmation below 4.35%...

United States 10-Year yields are closing in on 5%. What's the Big Deal? What does it mean for stocks and gold?

Treasury yield levels are overwhelmingly a function of inflation. However, in the short run, a plethora of influences can explain deviations between yields and inflation. These factors, which we call...

While the US 10-year yield is looking at the recent resistance before the 5% level, we cannot talk about a “flight to safe” Treasuries.Original Post

Two weeks ago I pointed out one of the effects of higher interest rates is that leveraged return strategies get swiftly worse as rates rise. Today, I want to talk about another result of higher...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, pushing ever higher above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. The trend...

Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions is a favorite technician, and his work is read regularly for good reason. The above chart from Kimble Charting Solutions highlights what could be a potential...

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing...