2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

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2024 United States presidential election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Contents

The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Formerly a Republican stronghold and a Southern state mostly in the Bible Belt, Democratic strength in the state has greatly increased over the last two decades and it is now considered a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal level. That is primarily due to the rapid growth and diversification of the Northern Virginia region, which includes some of the Washington metropolitan area's largest suburbs. The downstate metro areas of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond are also major voting blocs for Democrats in Virginia. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.

Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested. [1] [2] Nonetheless, most analysts consider Democrats the favorites to hold the Old Dominion. [3] Some polls have labelled Virginia as a tossup state in the election cycle, with closer margins than in 2020.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state and all 11 of its congressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. Activist Marianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second best performance on Super Tuesday after Oklahoma.

Popular vote share by county and independent city .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Biden 70-80% 80-90% >90% Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2024.svg
Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Biden
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Virginia Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 [4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)317,32988.51%9999
Marianne Williamson ⁦28,5997.98%00
Dean Phillips ⁦12,5863.51%00
Total:358,514100.00%9919118

Republican primary

The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump defeated former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention in July. Trump performed best in southwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay in Charlottesville, Albemarle County, the urban areas of Richmond and the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C.

Popular vote share by county and independent city Trump 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Haley 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 2024 Virginia Republican Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Virginia Republican primary, March 5, 2024 [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 440,41662.99%39342
Nikki Haley 244,58634.98%66
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,4941.07%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)3,3840.48%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)2,5030.36%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)8530.12%
Total:699,236100.00%45348

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [6] Likely DJune 12, 2024
Inside Elections [7] Likely DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] Likely DAugust 27, 2024
The Economist [9] Likely DSeptember 10, 2024
CNalysis [10] Very Likely DAugust 18, 2024
CNN [11] Lean DAugust 18, 2024
RCP [12] Lean DSeptember 12, 2024
538 [13] Likely DAugust 23, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Washington Post/Schar School [14] September 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%51%43%6% [lower-alpha 2]
1,005 (LV)51%43%6% [lower-alpha 2]
Morning Consult [15] August 30 – September 8, 2024873 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%6%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Quantus Polls and News (R) [16] August 20–22, 2024629 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%9%
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
Roanoke College [17] August 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%47%44%10% [lower-alpha 3]
August 6, 2024Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
Emerson College [18] July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [19] July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–43%44%13% [lower-alpha 4]
265 (LV)43%47%10% [lower-alpha 5]
July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [20] July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%
544 (LV)46%42%12%
New York Times/Siena College [21] July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%48%44%8%
661 (LV)± 4.4%49%44%7%
SoCal Strategies (R) [22] [upper-alpha 1] July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%47%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Washington Post/Schar School [14] September 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%49%42%0%1%1%7% [lower-alpha 6]
1,005 (LV)50%42%0%1%1%6% [lower-alpha 6]
Virginia Commonwealth University [23] August 26 – September 6, 2024809 (A)± 5.0%46%36%2%1%–15% [lower-alpha 7]
749 (RV)49%36%1%1%–13% [lower-alpha 8]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Roanoke College [24] August 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%45%42%6%2%0%2%3% [lower-alpha 9]
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
New York Times/Siena College [21] July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%41%38%9%0%1%0%11%
661 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%0%1%0%10%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [19] July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–40%41%7%12% [lower-alpha 5]
265 (LV)41%45%5%9% [lower-alpha 10]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [20] July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%37%10%12%
544 (LV)± 3.9%43%38%10%9%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [18] July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%45%12%
50% [lower-alpha 11] 50%–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [19] July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–41%44%15% [lower-alpha 4]
265 (LV)44%44%12% [lower-alpha 10]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [20] July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%
544 (LV)± 3.9%47%42%11%
New York Times/Siena College [21] July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%46%44%10%
661 (LV)± 4.4%48%45%7%
SoCal Strategies (R) [22] [upper-alpha 1] July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%44%9%
Fox News [25] June 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
Roanoke College [26] May 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%42%42%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [27] [upper-alpha 2] April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%48%44%8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [28] [upper-alpha 3] April 26–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%43%42%16%
Virginia Commonwealth University [29] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%
Mason-Dixon [30] December 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Roanoke College [31] November 12–20, 2023686 (A)± 4.3%48%44%8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) [32] September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)–47%42%11%
Research America Inc. [33] [upper-alpha 4] September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%37%37%26%
Roanoke College [34] August 6–15, 2023702 (A)± 4.2%51%42%17%
Virginia Commonwealth University [35] July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%
Roanoke College [36] May 14–23, 2023678 (A)± 4.4%54%38%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [37] May 7–9, 2023500 (LV)–48%41%11%
Roanoke College [38] February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%47%46%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [18] July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%38%43%8%2%2%7%
New York Times/Siena College [21] July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%38%36%9%0%2%15%
661 (LV)± 4.4%40%38%7%0%2%13%
Virginia Commonwealth University [39] June 24 – July 3, 2024809 (A)± 4.8%36%39%9%1%2%13% [lower-alpha 12]
Fox News [25] June 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%42%41%9%2%2%4%
Roanoke College [26] May 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%40%38%8%1%3%10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [27] [upper-alpha 2] April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%40%37%8%1%2%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [19] July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)–40%40%5%15% [lower-alpha 13]
265 (LV)43%42%4%11% [lower-alpha 14]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [20] July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%38%11%10%
544 (LV)± 3.9%42%39%10%9%
co/efficient (R) [40] June 11–12, 2024851 (LV)± 3.4%41%41%7%11%
Mason-Dixon [30] December 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%42%36%14%8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) [32] September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)–40%39%7%14%
37%37%5%21% [lower-alpha 15]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University [29] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%38%43%19%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University [29] December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%42%39%19%
Research America Inc. [33] [upper-alpha 4] September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%39%30%31%
Virginia Commonwealth University [35] July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%41%41%18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [37] May 7–9, 2023500 (LV)–44%44%12%
Roanoke College [38] February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%43%48%8%

Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Glenn
Youngkin
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Research America Inc. [33] [upper-alpha 4] September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%37%34%29%
Virginia Commonwealth University [35] July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%37%44%19%
Roanoke College [38] February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%39%55%6%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Virginia [41] [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kamala D. Harris
Tim Walz
Republican Donald J. Trump
JD Vance
Green Jill E. Stein
Rudolph T. Ware III
Libertarian Chase R. Oliver
Mike ter Maat
Independent Claudia De la Cruz
Karina Garcia
Independent Cornel R. West
Melina Abdullah
Write-in
Turnout
Total votes

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 "Would not vote" with 1%
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
  4. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 5%
  5. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. 1 2 De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 3%
  11. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  12. ↑ "Undecided" with 6%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Refused" with 2%
  13. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  14. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%
  15. ↑ Joe Manchin with 7%
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington

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References

  1. ↑ https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
  2. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Virginia Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Virginia Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections.
  8. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  10. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved August 6, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. August 18, 2024. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  13. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  14. 1 2 Schneider, Gregory; Vozzella, Laura; Clement, Scott; Guskin, Emily (September 10, 2024). "Harris leads among Virginia voters, Post-Schar School poll finds". The Washington Post.
  15. ↑ Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
  16. ↑ "Analysis of the 2024 General Election Survey in Virginia". Quantus Polls and News. August 23, 2024.
  17. ↑ "Roanoke College Poll: Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia". Roanoke College. August 20, 2024.
  18. 1 2 3 Mumford, Camille (July 18, 2024). "Virginia 2024 Poll: Trump 45%, Biden 43%". Emerson Polling.
  19. 1 2 3 4 "Small Trump Bump Post-Assassination Attempt, New Poll Shows". FAU Polling. July 17, 2024.
  20. 1 2 3 4 "Small Trump Bump Post-Assassination Attempt, New Poll Shows". FAU Polling. July 17, 2024.
  21. 1 2 3 4 Nagourney, Adam; Igielnik, Ruth (July 15, 2024). "Biden Facing Challenges in Two Must-Win States, Times/Siena Polls Find". The New York Times– via NYTimes.com.
  22. 1 2 "On Point Politics/SoCal Research Old Dominion State Survey". Google Docs . July 11, 2024.
  23. ↑ "September 2024 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll". Google Drive . September 11, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Roanoke College Poll: Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia". Roanoke College. August 20, 2024.
  25. 1 2 Balara, Victoria (June 6, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Biden, Trump in a dead heat in Virginia". Fox News.
  26. 1 2 "Roanoke College Poll: Biden and Trump tied in Virginia". Roanoke College. May 29, 2024.
  27. 1 2 McLaughlin, John (May 6, 2024). "Minnesota & Virginia Are Clearly In Play & Prime Opportunities to Flip for Donald Trump". X .
  28. ↑ "New Poll Shows Strong Opposition to Legalizing Skill Games". Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines. May 11, 2024.
  29. 1 2 3 "92% of those familiar with VCU Health development deal want answers from the VCU Health System board" (PDF). FiveThirtyEight . January 22, 2024.
  30. 1 2 Cain, Andrew (January 5, 2024). "Biden leads Trump in Virginia in potential rematch, poll says". Richmond Times-Dispatch .
  31. ↑ "Roanoke College Poll: Virginians have mixed opinions on direction of Virginia and the nation". Roanoke College. November 30, 2023.
  32. 1 2 "Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs" (PDF). Future Majority. October 11, 2023.
  33. 1 2 3 Marvashti, Lisa Chinn (September 29, 2023). "Statewide Survey Considers 2024 Biden, Trump Presidential Rematch". University of Mary Washington.
  34. ↑ "Latest Roanoke College Poll looks at opinions of Virginians on political issues". Roanoke College. August 29, 2023.
  35. 1 2 3 "August 2023 Commonwealth Poll Press Release". Google Docs . August 3, 2023.
  36. ↑ "Roanoke College Poll: Political anxiety is up among Virginians". Roanoke College. June 6, 2023.
  37. 1 2 "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X . May 12, 2023.
  38. 1 2 3 "Roanoke College Poll looks at top issues in Virginia". Roanoke College. March 2, 2023.
  39. ↑ Schneider, Gregory (July 15, 2024). "VCU poll shows Trump ahead in Virginia as support for Biden wanes". The Washington Post .
  40. ↑ Plummer, Kate (June 14, 2024). "Joe Biden Suffers Shock Poll in State Democrats Have Not Lost in 20 years". Newsweek .
  41. ↑ Department of Election, Virginia. "November 5, 2024 General Election Presidential". elections.virignia.gov. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  42. ↑ Department of Election, Virginia. "State Board of Elections Final Meeting Minutes; Tuesday, July 2, 2024" (PDF). townhall.virginia.gov. pp. 7–8. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
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