2024 United States presidential election in Maine

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2024 United States presidential election in Maine
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←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Reporting
0%
as of 8:04 PM EST
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Popular vote550555
Percentage45.8%46.2%
Maine Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
Maine Presidential Results 2024 by Municipality.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

TBD

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is currently taking place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]

Contents

Maine is a sparsely populated rural state in Northern New England. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately red district, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.

Maine at-large could be a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020 Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. Most polls and analysts expect Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at-large in the November 2024 general election.

This election will coincide with five referendum questions, including a referendum on the state flag as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, and various other state, county and local elections.

General election

Predictions

SourceRanking (1st)Ranking (2nd)Ranking (statewide)As of
The Economist [2] Safe DLikely RLikely DSeptember 5, 2024
Cook Political Report [3] Safe DLikely RLikely DAugust 27, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [4] Safe DLikely RSafe DNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [5] Safe DVery Likely RSolid DNovember 4, 2024
538 [6] Safe DLikely RLikely DJuly 15, 2024
CNN [7] Safe DLean RSafe DJanuary 14, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] Safe DLikely RLikely DJune 29, 2023
Inside Elections [9] Safe DLean RLikely DApril 26, 2023
NBC News [10] Safe DLikely RLikely DOctober 6, 2024
YouGov [11] Safe DTossupSafe DNovember 1, 2024
Split Ticket [12] Safe DLikely RLikely DNovember 1, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024951 (LV)± 3.2%58%41%1%
University of New Hampshire [14] July 23–25, 20241,445 (LV)± 2.6%54%45%1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [15] October 29 – November 2, 20241,485 (LV)± 2.4%52%41%1%1%1%4% [lower-alpha 2]
SurveyUSA [16] [upper-alpha 1] October 24–29, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.6%51%43%1%1%1%3%
Pan Atlantic Research [17] September 5–15, 2024812 (LV)± 3.5%50%41%1%1%1%6%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024951 (LV)± 3.2%55%38%2%0%1%1%3%
University of New Hampshire [14] July 23–25, 20241,445 (LV)± 2.6%48%40%4%1%1%1%5% [lower-alpha 2]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [18] [upper-alpha 2] April 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–45%46%9%
Pan Atlantic Research [19] February 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%32%38%30% [lower-alpha 3]
Digital Research [20] October 3 – November 2, 2023614 (RV)± 3.9%36%35%29% [lower-alpha 4]
Emerson College [21] September 19–20, 20221,164 (LV)± 2.8%51%40%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		RCV
count		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Digital Research [22] April 8–30, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%140%41%10%1%6%2%
241%41%11%1%6%Elim
341%42%11%Elim6%Elim
442%43%15%ElimElimElim
551%49%ElimElimElimElim
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [18] [upper-alpha 2] April 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–35%53%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [18] [upper-alpha 2] April 13–21, 2024350 (LV)–43%37%20%

Maine's 1st congressional district

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research [17] September 5–15, 2024414 (LV)–58%32%10%
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024476 (LV)–64%36%–

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [15] October 29 – November 2, 2024801 (LV)± 3.5%60%36%0%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 2]
SurveyUSA [16] [upper-alpha 1] October 24–29, 2024482 (LV)–58%37%1%1%0%3%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024476 (LV)–62%33%2%0%0%1%2% [lower-alpha 2]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research [19] February 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%39%31%31% [lower-alpha 5]
Digital Research [20] October 3 – November 2, 2023307 (RV)–43%27%30%

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Axis Research [23] [upper-alpha 3] October 17–20, 2024411 (LV)± 4.8%50%41%8% [lower-alpha 6]
Pan Atlantic Research [17] September 5–15, 2024398 (LV)–49%42%9%
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024432 (LV)–47%52%1%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [15] October 29 – November 2, 2024683 (LV)± 3.7%48%44%1%1%1%5% [lower-alpha 2]
SurveyUSA [16] [upper-alpha 1] October 24–29, 2024484 (LV)–49%44%1%1%1%4%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire [13] August 15–19, 2024432 (LV)–44%49%2%0%1%1%3%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research [19] February 6–14, 2024791 (LV)± 3.5%45%25%30% [lower-alpha 7]
Digital Research [20] October 3 – November 2, 2023307 (RV)–42%28%30%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Maine [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
Republican
Libertarian
Green
Justice For All
Write-in
Total votes

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 [25]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)60,01882.8%24
Dean Phillips 4,6236.4%
Other candidates4800.7%
Blank ballots7,35910.2%
Total:72,480100%24832

Republican primary

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Republican primary, March 5, 2024 [26]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 79,03471.92%20020
Nikki Haley 27,91225.40%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)1,1911.08%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)4400.40%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)2990.27%000
Blank ballots1,0220.93%000
Total:109,898100.00%20020

Attempted disqualification of Trump

On December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Donald Trump from the ballot in a similar decision to Anderson v. Griswold in Colorado. [27] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". [28] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court. [29] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Donald Trump is allowed to remain on the Maine ballot. [30]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 "Another Candidate" with 1%
  3. ↑ "Another Candidate" with 21%
  4. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 10%
  5. ↑ "Another Candidate" with 23%
  6. ↑ "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  7. ↑ "Another Candidate" with 19%
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Bangor Daily News & FairVote
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by the NRCC

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist .
  3. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report.
  4. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill .
  5. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis.
  6. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight.
  7. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
  8. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  11. ↑ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  12. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (August 21, 2024). "Harris Ahead in Maine, CD2 Too-Close-to-Call". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  14. 1 2 McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (July 25, 2024). "Harris Holds Small Lead Over Trump in Maine After Biden Withdraws From Race". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  15. 1 2 3 McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Leads Statewide in Maine but Trump Has Small Lead in CD2". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  16. 1 2 3 Kobin, Billy (November 1, 2024). "New poll finds Jared Golden and Donald Trump leading Maine's 2nd District". Bangor Daily News .
  17. 1 2 3 Cover, Susan (September 18, 2024). "New Maine polls shows Harris leading Trump in race for president". Spectrum News .
  18. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  19. 1 2 3 "The 63rd Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll - February 2024" (PDF). Pan Atlantic Research. February 26, 2024.
  20. 1 2 3 Burnett, Traverse (January 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Fall 2023" (PDF).
  21. ↑ Mumford, Camille (September 23, 2022). "Maine Poll: Mills Leads LePage by 12; Majority of Voters Concerned Over Lobsters on Unsustainable Seafood "Red List"". Emerson Polling.
  22. ↑ Fay, Kevin (June 12, 2024). "Critical Insights on Maine Tracking Survey - Spring 2024" (PDF).
  23. ↑ "State Of The Race Maine CD-2". Axis Research. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  24. ↑ "2024 General Candidate List". Maine.gov. September 4, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  27. ↑ Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  28. ↑ Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times . Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  29. ↑ "Maine secretary of state appeals superior court ruling in Trump ballot case". newscentermaine.com. January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  30. ↑ "Supreme Court rules states can't kick Trump off the ballot". NBC News. March 4, 2024. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
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