Fixed income analysis

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Fixed income analysis is the process of determining the value of a debt security based on an assessment of its risk profile, which can include interest rate risk, risk of the issuer failing to repay the debt, market supply and demand for the security, call provisions and macroeconomic considerations affecting its value in the future. Based on such an analysis, a fixed income analyst tries to reach a conclusion as to whether to buy, sell, hold, hedge or avoid the particular security.

Contents

Fixed income products are generally bonds: debt instruments requiring the issuer (i.e. the debtor or borrower) to repay the lender the amount borrowed (principal) plus interest over a specified period of time (coupon payments) until maturity. [1] They are issued by government treasuries, government agencies, companies or international organizations.

Calculating Value

To determine the value of a fixed income security, the analyst must estimate the expected cash flows from the investment and the appropriate required yield. The cash flows consist of:

The required yield is determined by investigating the yield offered on securities of comparable risk in the market. The required yield is applied to the expected cash flows to estimate their present value, which equals the security's value. [3]

Analysis

Key factors considered in fixed income analysis include the following:

  1. the type of issuer,
  2. the issuer's perceived creditworthiness,
  3. the potential impact of any embedded options, such as a call feature, which permit either the bondholder or the issuer to alter the cash flows, [6]
  4. the relationship between the market yield on bonds of the same credit quality but different maturities (known as the term structure of interest rates, or yield curve) [7]
  5. the taxability of the interest received by investors, and
  6. the expected liquidity of the security. Demand comes from banks, insurance companies, pension funds, mutual funds, endowment organisations, external government treasuries, and individual investors such as retirees who need predictable cash flows from their investments.

The approaches for analysing fixed income products include the fundamental approach, the technical approach, and the relative value approach.

Further reading

See also

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References

  1. Fabozzi, Frank J. (1996). Bond Markets, Analysis and Strategies (Third ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. p. 1. ISBN   0133391515.
  2. Fabozzi op cit. p. 18.
  3. Fabozzi op cit. pp. 18–19.
  4. Fabozzi, op cit. p. 323.
  5. Fabozzi, Frank J. (1997). Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fifth ed.). New York: McGraw Hill. p. 107. ISBN   0-7863-1095-2.
  6. Fabozzi Bond Markets op cit. p. 322.
  7. Fabozzi Bond Markets op cit. pp. 85–87.