2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas

Last updated

2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2014  →
All 4 Arkansas seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority partyThird party
 
Party Republican Democratic Green
Last election310
Seats won400
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1Steady2.svg
Popular vote637,591304,77057,706
Percentage61.42%29.36%5.56%
SwingIncrease2.svg 5.17%Decrease2.svg 11.72%New
Arkansas Congressional Election Results 2012.svg

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas occurred on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election.

Contents

As the result of redistricting following the 2010 United States census, the boundaries of the state's congressional districts were redrawn by the then Democratic legislature. Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, who signed the new map into law in April 2011, described it as the "status quo" [1] and not partisan. [2] In the new map, five counties are split between districts, the first time in Arkansas history that counties have not been kept intact in congressional districts. [1]

Overview

Statewide

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arkansas.

United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012 [3]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Republican 637,59161.4%4+1
Democratic 304,77029.4%0-1
Green 57,7065.6%0-
Libertarian 37,9873.7%0-
Totals1,038,054100%4—
Popular vote
Republican
 
61.42%
Democratic
 
29.36%
Green
 
5.56%
Libertarian
 
3.66%
House seats
Republican
 
100.0%
Democratic
 
0%
Green
 
0%
Libertarian
 
0%

By district

Results of the 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:

District Republican Democratic Green Libertarian TotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 138,80056.23%96,60139.13%6,4272.60%5,0152.03%246,843100.0%Republican Hold
District 2 158,17555.19%113,15639.48%8,5662.99%6,7012.34%286,598100.0%Republican Hold
District 3 186,46775.90%00.00%39,31816.01%19,8758.09%245,660100.0%Republican Hold
District 4 154,14959.53%95,01336.69%4,8071.86%4,9841.93%258,953100.0%Republican Gain
Total637,59161.42%304,77029.36%57,7065.56%37,9873.66%1,038,054100.0%

District 1

2012 Arkansas's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010
2014  →
  Rick Crawford, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Rick Crawford Scott Ellington
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote138,80096,601
Percentage56.2%39.2%
2012 AR-1 Election Results.svg
Results by county
Crawford:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Ellington:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Rick Crawford
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Rick Crawford
Republican

The 1st district had lost population, [4] and so was drawn in the new map to incorporate counties in southeastern Arkansas which were previously a part of the 4th district. [1] Republican incumbent Rick Crawford was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Clark Hall

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Ellington		Clark
Hall		Gary
Latanich		Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College [12] April 24–25, 2012497± 4.4%15%10%4%71%

Primary results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Scott Ellington 27,936 49.5
Democratic Clark M. Hall21,86138.8
Democratic Gary Latanich6,60511.7
Total votes56,402 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Crawford (R)		Scott
Ellington (D)		Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D) [20] July 16–18, 2012401±4.9%47%45%8%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Safe RNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg [22] Safe RNovember 2, 2012
Roll Call [23] Safe RNovember 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24] Safe RNovember 5, 2012
NY Times [25] Safe RNovember 4, 2012
RCP [26] Safe RNovember 4, 2012
The Hill [27] Likely RNovember 4, 2012

Results

Arkansas' 1st congressional district, 2012 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Crawford (incumbent) 138,800 56.2
Democratic Scott Ellington96,60139.2
Libertarian Jessica Paxton6,4272.6
Green Jacob Holloway5,0152.0
Total votes246,843 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2012 Arkansas's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010
2014  →
  Tim Griffin, official portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Tim Griffin Herb Rule
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote158,175113,156
Percentage55.2%39.5%
U.S. Representative before election

Tim Griffin
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tim Griffin
Republican

Population growth in Arkansas's central counties meant that the 2nd district had to shrink in the new map. [4] Under the new map, the 2nd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans. [1]

Republican incumbent Timothy Griffin was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Herb Rule, attorney and former state representative

Declined

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Chris Hayes

General election

Endorsements

Results

Arkansas' 2nd congressional district, 2012 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tim Griffin (incumbent) 158,175 55.2
Democratic Herb Rule 113,15639.5
Green Barbara Ward8,5663.0
Libertarian Chris Hayes6,7012.3
Total votes286,598 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2012 Arkansas's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010
2014  →
  Steve Womack, Official Portrait, 112th Congress - Hi Res (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg 3x4.svg
Nominee Steve Womack Rebekah Kennedy David Pangrac
Party Republican Green Libertarian
Popular vote186,46739,31819,875
Percentage75.9%16.0%8.1%
U.S. Representative before election

Steve Womack
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve Womack
Republican

Population growth in Arkansas's northwestern counties meant that the 3rd district had to shrink in the new map. [4] Under the new map, the 3rd district is likely to continue to favor Republicans. [4]

Republican incumbent Steve Womack was first elected in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Ken Aden, former director for West Memphis-based nonprofit Residents 4 Arkansas [34]

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Aden would withdraw from the race after admitting to exaggerating his military record. Under Arkansas law, the Democratic Party was unable to field a replacement candidate for Aden and no Democrat appeared on the general election ballot. [36] On August 14, 2012, Kennedy received the endorsement of the Arkansas state AFL-CIO labor union. [17]

Endorsements

Ken Aden (D)

Labor unions

Rebekah Kennedy (G)

Labor unions

Results

Arkansas' 3rd congressional district, 2012 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Womack (incumbent) 186,467 75.9
Green Rebekah Kennedy 39,31816.0
Libertarian David Pangrac19,8758.1
Total votes245,660 100.0
Republican hold

District 4

2012 Arkansas's 4th congressional district election
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2010
2014  →
  Tom Cotton, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).png Gene Jeffress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tom Cotton Gene Jeffress
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote154,14995,013
Percentage59.5%36.7%
AR-4 2012 Election Results by County.svg
Results by county
Cotton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Jeffress:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Mike Ross
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Tom Cotton
Republican

Under the new map, the 4th district loses some territory in the east of the state to the 1st district and gains some Republican-leaning northwestern Arkansas counties from the 3rd district. [1] [9] The district also gains Yell County from the 2nd district, which is expected to make the 4th district more favorable to Democrats. [9]

Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, who was first elected in 2000, chose not to seek re-election. [37]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Q. Byrum
Hurst		Gene
Jeffress		D.C.
Morrison		Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College [44] May 10, 2012418± 4.8%23%22%11%44%

Primary results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gene Jeffress 23,848 43.0
Democratic Q. Byrum Hurst 19,812 35.7
Democratic DC Morrison11,77121.2
Total votes55,431 100.0

Primary runoff results

Democratic primary runoff results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gene Jeffress 15,266 60.7
Democratic Q. Byrum Hurst9,89539.3
Total votes25,161 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Cotton		John
Cowart		Beth Anne
Rankin		Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College [46] May 10, 2012437± 4.7%51%6%33%10%
Talk Business/Hendrix College [47] April 17, 2012542± 4.2%38.5%4%38.5%19%

Primary results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Cotton 20,899 57.6
Republican Beth Anne Rankin13,46037.1
Republican John Cowart1,9535.4
Total votes36,312 100.0

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • J. Joshua Drake

Libertarian primary

Bobby Tullis had considered seeking Libertarian nomination for the seat; [48] however in December 2011 Tullis gave his support to Republican candidate Beth Anne Rankin; [43] nevertheless, he was subsequently nominated as the Libertarian candidate.

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Endorsements

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [51] Likely R (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg [22] Safe R (flip)November 2, 2012
Roll Call [23] Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24] Safe R (flip)November 5, 2012
NY Times [25] Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
RCP [26] Safe R (flip)November 4, 2012
The Hill [27] Likely R (flip)November 4, 2012

Results

Arkansas' 4th congressional district, 2012 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Cotton 154,149 59.5
Democratic Gene Jeffress 95,01336.7
Libertarian Bobby Tullis 4,9841.9
Green J. Joshua Drake4,8071.9
Total votes258,953 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 DeMillo, Andrew (April 14, 2011). "Beebe signs Ark. redistricting plan into law". San Antonio Express-News . Archived from the original on April 27, 2011. Retrieved April 23, 2011.
  2. ↑ MacNeil, Kelly (April 14, 2011). "Beebe Says Redistricting Map Isn't Partisan". KUAR. Archived from the original on September 28, 2011. Retrieved April 23, 2011.
  3. ↑ "New York Times Election Results 2012". The New York Times.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Barnes, Steve (April 15, 2011). "Steve Barnes: Congressional redistricting brings state something new". The Baxter Bulletin . Retrieved April 23, 2011.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. 1 2 "Possible 1st District candidates". Arkansas Times . July 6, 2011. Archived from the original on July 12, 2011. Retrieved July 6, 2011.
  6. ↑ "Rep. Clark Hall to enter first district congressional race". Talk Business & Politics. October 17, 2011. Archived from the original on October 19, 2011. Retrieved October 18, 2011.
  7. ↑ Cook, Michael (November 2, 2011). "First District Democrats Have Contested Primary". Talk Business & Politics. Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  8. 1 2 Merchant, Nomaan (September 7, 2011). "3 Democrats not running in Arkansas' 1st District". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette . Retrieved September 8, 2011.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Brock, Roby (April 22, 2011). "Arkansas Election Line: New Congressional options". The City Wire. Archived from the original on April 26, 2011. Retrieved April 23, 2011.
  10. ↑ Brantley, Max (September 7, 2011). "Chad Causey won't run again in 2012". Arkansas Times . Retrieved September 7, 2011.
  11. 1 2 3 Miller, Joshua (June 2, 2011). "Race Ratings: Can Democrats Reclaim Arkansas Territory?". Roll Call . Retrieved June 3, 2011.
  12. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  13. ↑ "Candidates". electgoppatriots.org/. NRCC. Archived from the original on October 16, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  14. 1 2 3 "Upcoming Election - Arkansas". Archived from the original on October 9, 2012. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 4 "Arkansas Endorsements" (PDF). National Right to Life. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 23, 2013. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 4 "Help With Voting". Archived from the original on October 10, 2012. Retrieved February 18, 2023.
  17. 1 2 3 4 "Arkansas AFL-CIO endorses Democrats, Green Party candidate in House races, but not Herb Rule". The Republic (Columbus). Associated Press. August 14, 2012. Archived from the original on August 19, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  18. 1 2 "NALC-ENDORSED CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES" (PDF). NALC. pp. 3–4. Retrieved February 12, 2023.
  19. ↑ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  20. ↑ Anzalone Liszt Research Ellington (D)
  21. ↑ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
  22. 1 2 "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  23. 1 2 , as of November 4,2012[update]
  24. 1 2 Crystal Ball, as of November 5,2012
  25. 1 2 House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4,2012
  26. 1 2 , as of November 4,2012[update]
  27. 1 2 "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
  28. 1 2 3 4 AR – Election Results
  29. 1 2 "Chris Thomason, David Boling Not Seeking U.S. House Seats". Arkansas Business . July 27, 2011. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  30. ↑ "Edwards is staying in the state house - will not run for Congress". Tolbert Report. October 16, 2011. Retrieved October 18, 2011.
  31. ↑ Clark, Lauren (November 1, 2011). "Drew Pritt drops out of Arkansas Congressional Race". Today's THV . Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  32. ↑ "Pat Hays political future a source of speculation". Talk Business & Politics. August 23, 2011. Retrieved August 23, 2011.
  33. ↑ Brantley, Max (January 17, 2012). "Jay Martin confirms interest in 2nd District Congress". Arkansas Times . Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  34. ↑ Demillo, Andrew (August 30, 2011). "Democrat announces for NW Arkansas congressional seat". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette . Retrieved August 30, 2011.
  35. ↑ "Rebekah Kennedy". Arkansas Secretary of State. May 15, 2012. Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  36. ↑ Brantley, Max (July 9, 2012). "Ken Aden dropping out of 3rd District congressional race". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette . Retrieved August 15, 2012.
  37. 1 2 3 4 5 "In Ross's wake". Arkansas Times. July 27, 2011. Retrieved July 27, 2011.
  38. 1 2 3 Demillo, Andrew (August 29, 2011). "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 30, 2011.
  39. 1 2 Brock, Roby (January 18, 2012). "Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2012.
  40. ↑ Brock, Roby (February 27, 2012). "Democrat Q. Byrum Hurst Enters Fourth District Congressional Race". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  41. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Ross will not seek re-election in 2012 (updated)". Talk Business & Politics. July 25, 2011. Archived from the original on August 30, 2011. Retrieved July 31, 2011.
  42. 1 2 3 Catanese, David (July 25, 2011). "Can Dems hold the Ross seat?". Politico . Retrieved July 27, 2011.
  43. 1 2 Brock, Roby (December 12, 2011). "Ross District Director Rules Out Fourth District Run". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2012.
  44. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  45. ↑ Brantley, Max (December 12, 2011). "Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress". Arkansas Times . Retrieved January 24, 2012.
  46. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  47. ↑ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  48. ↑ Tolbert, Jason (November 1, 2011). "Fourth District Gains More Candidates - Cowart and Tullis". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  49. ↑ "2012 Candidates Endorsed By Eagle Forum PAC". eagleforum.org/. February 12, 2013. Archived from the original on October 13, 2014. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  50. ↑ "2012 ENDORSEMENTS". teapartyexpress.org. January 27, 2012. Archived from the original on December 7, 2012. Retrieved February 11, 2023.
  51. ↑ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
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