2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Flag of New Hampshire.svg
←  2010 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2014  →
  Maggie Hassan (NH) (cropped).png Ovide Lamontagne (cropped).jpg
Nominee Maggie Hassan Ovide Lamontagne
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote378,934294,024
Percentage54.61%42.53%
2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Hassan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Lamontagne:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, U.S. House elections, and various state and local elections.

Contents

Four-term incumbent governor John Lynch was eligible to seek a fifth term. In the fall of 2011, Lynch announced that he would retire rather than run for re-election. [1] On September 11, 2012, Democrat Maggie Hassan and Republican Ovide Lamontagne defeated primary opponents to win their parties' nominations. [2] [3] Hassan won the election while carrying every county in the state and began the two-year term on January 3, 2013. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jackie
Cilley		Maggie
Hassan		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [14] August 9–12, 2012400± 4.9%24%30%—46%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012477± 4.5%20%23%—57%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Hassan--60-70% Hassan--50-60% Hassan--40-50% Cilley--50-60% Cilley--40-50% 2012 NH GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Hassan—60–70%
  Hassan—50–60%
  Hassan—40–50%
  Cilley—50–60%
  Cilley—40–50%
Democratic primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 45,120 53.1
Democratic Jackie Cilley33,06638.9
Democratic Bill Kennedy5,9367.0
Democratic Other8501.0
Total votes84,972 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ovide
Lamontagne		Kevin
Smith		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [14] August 9–12, 2012662± 3.8%49%21%—30%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 2012555± 4.2%53%13%—34%
Public Policy Polling [27] January 7–8, 20121,771± 2.3%40%12%—48%

Results

Results by county: Lamontagne--80-90% Lamontagne--60-70% 2012 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Lamontagne—80–90%
  Lamontagne—60–70%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 73,437 67.7
Republican Kevin Smith32,39629.8
Republican Robert Tarr1,7251.6
Republican Other9880.9
Total votes108,546 100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [32] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [33] Lean DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [34] November 4, 2012750± 4%50%45%1%4%
New England College [35] November 3–4, 2012666± 4.1%47%45%1%7%
Public Policy Polling [36] November 3–4, 20121,550± 2.5%51%47%—2%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [37] November 1–4, 2012789± 3.5%54%43%3%—
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [38] October 31–November 2, 2012502± 4.4%47%42%3%8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [39] October 28–29, 20121013± 3.1%49%44%1%6%
Public Policy Polling [40] October 26–28, 2012874± 3.3%48%44%—8%
New England College [41] October 23–25, 2012571± 4.1%45%45%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports [42] October 23, 2012500± 4.5%46%48%1%5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [43] October 17–21, 2012773± 3.5%43%35%3%18%
Public Policy Polling [44] October 17–19, 20121,036± 3.0%45%43%—12%
Rasmussen Reports [45] October 15, 2012500± 4.5%46%48%—5%
Suffolk University/7NEWS [46] October 12–14, 2012500± 4.4%41%38%4%16%
American Research Group [47] October 9–11, 2012600± 4%40%46%3%11%
Rasmussen Reports [48] October 9, 2012500± 4.5%48%46%—5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [49] October 1–6, 2012419± 4.8%35%39%3%23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [50] September 27–30, 2012600± 4.0%38%36%2%25%
Public Policy Polling [51] September 24–25, 2012862± 3.3%51%44%—5%
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College [52] September 23–25, 20121012± 3.1%47%45%1%7%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner [53] September 15–19, 2012600± 4.9%48%46%—6%
Rasmussen Reports [54] September 18, 2012500± 4.5%44%48%2%7%
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%45%43%—12%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%33%1%35%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012500± 4.5%36%42%—22%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%39%40%—21%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%34%29%1%36%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [58] January 25–February 2, 2012495± 4.4%26%32%1%41%
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30–July 5, 2011662± 3.8%35%41%—24%
Hypothetical polling

With Cilley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jackie
Cilley (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%42%42%—16%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%35%1%33%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012500± 4.5%39%41%—20%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%38%38%—24%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%31%30%1%38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jackie
Cilley (D)		Kevin
Smith (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%39%38%—23%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%28%1%39%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012500± 4.5%39%37%—24%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%37%32%—31%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%30%23%1%47%

With Smith

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		Kevin
Smith (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [15] August 9–12, 20121,055± 3.0%42%39%—20%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%31%29%1%39%
Rasmussen Reports [56] June 20, 2012500± 4.5%36%39%—25%
Public Policy Polling [15] May 10–13, 20121,163± 2.9%37%31%—32%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [57] April 9–20, 2012486± 4.4%29%24%1%46%

With Kennedy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Kennedy (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%29%35%1%36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Kennedy (D)		Kevin
Smith (R)		OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [55] August 1–12, 2012555± 4.2%27%29%1%44%

With Bradley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Connolly (D)		Jeb
Bradley (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%30%38%—31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		Jeb
Bradley (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%33%39%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Marchand (D)		Jeb
Bradley (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%32%38%—31%

With Connolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Connolly (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%34%40%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Connolly (D)		John
Stephen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%36%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Connolly (D)		John E.
Sununu (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%44%—20%

With Gatsas

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		Ted
Gatsas (R)		OtherUndecided
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [58] January 25-February 2, 2012495± 4.4%27%29%1%43%

With Lynch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Lynch (D)		Jeb
Bradley (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%54%35%—11%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%33%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Lynch (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%54%36%—10%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%33%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Lynch (D)		John
Stephen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%55%34%—11%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%57%29%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Lynch (D)		John E.
Sununu (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%51%40%—8%
Public Policy Polling [60] March 31-April 3, 2011769± 3.5%54%36%—11%

With Marchand

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Marchand (D)		Ovide
Lamontagne (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%33%40%—27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Marchand (D)		John
Stephen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%34%36%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Marchand (D)		John E.
Sununu (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%35%44%—21%

With Stephen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		John
Stephen (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%37%—27%

With Sununu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maggie
Hassan (D)		John E.
Sununu (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [59] June 30-July 5, 2011662± 3.8%36%45%—19%

Results

2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Maggie Hassan 378,934 54.61% +1.98%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 295,02642.52%−2.51%
Libertarian John J. Babiarz19,2512.77%+0.56%
Write-in 6660.10%-0.02%
Total votes693,877 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Hassan won both congressional districts. [62]

DistrictHassanLamontagneRepresentative
1st 52.98%44.43% Carol Shea-Porter
2nd 56.38%40.66% Annie Kuster

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Langley, Karen (September 16, 2011). "Lynch will not seek a fifth term". Concord Monitor . Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  2. ↑ "2012 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  3. ↑ "Lamontagne, Hassan will face off in governor's race". Archived from the original on November 29, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2012.
  4. ↑ New Hampshire
  5. ↑ Hall, Beth LaMontagne (February 7, 2012). "Former state Sen. Cilley enters race for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on December 14, 2014. Retrieved February 9, 2012.
  6. ↑ Marchocki, Kathryn (October 25, 2011). "Former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan makes gubernatorial bid official". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  7. ↑ Claffey, Jason (April 4, 2012). "Democratic Field for Governor to Expand". Exeter, NH Patch . Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  8. ↑ Timmins, Annmarie (April 5, 2012). "Political newcomer to run for governor". Concord Monitor . Retrieved April 28, 2012.
  9. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (February 11, 2012). "Mark Connolly, financial whistle-blower, won't run for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  10. ↑ Ireland, Doug (January 13, 2012). "Stonyfield CEO steps down". The Eagle-Tribune . Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  11. ↑ Cresta, Joey (December 21, 2011). "Ex-Mayor accepts UNH job, ending political rumblings". The Portsmouth Herald . Archived from the original on March 7, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  12. ↑ "McLaughlin won't run for governor". The Laconia Daily Sun . January 26, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  13. ↑ Pindell, James (February 7, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: Shumaker Will Not Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on February 8, 2012. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  14. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Public Policy Polling
  16. ↑ "2012 Governor - Democratic Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Archived from the original on October 3, 2012. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  17. ↑ Houghton, Kimberly (September 19, 2011). "Ovide Lamontagne makes candidacy for governor official". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on April 5, 2012. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  18. ↑ DiStaso, John (November 16, 2011). "Conservative Kevin Smith says 'I'm in' for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on January 28, 2012. Retrieved November 16, 2011.
  19. ↑ "In NH, a big election year by the numbers, too". Nashua Telegraph . June 20, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  20. ↑ Curtis, Danielle (May 17, 2012). "Binnie won't enter governor race". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved May 17, 2012.
  21. ↑ Pindell, James (January 26, 2012). "Bradley Won't Run For Governor". WMUR-TV Political Scoop. Archived from the original on March 29, 2012. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  22. ↑ Cleveland, Kathy (September 22, 2011). "Sen. Peter Bragdon rules out run for governor in 2012". Milford Cabinet . Archived from the original on March 5, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2012.
  23. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (March 8, 2012). "Manchester mayor Gatsas bows out of race for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved March 12, 2012.
  24. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (March 31, 2012). "Kenda rules out run for governor". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  25. ↑ Pindell, James (February 13, 2012). "EXCLUSIVE: NH Education Board Chair Not Running For Governor". Political Scoop. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved February 14, 2012.
  26. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (February 13, 2012). "Stephen, 2010 GOP governor nominee, will not run again". Nashua Telegraph . Retrieved February 13, 2012.
  27. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  28. ↑ "2012 Governor - Republican Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State . Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  29. ↑ Schinella, Tony (June 12, 2012). "VIDEO: Babiarz Running for Governor". Amherst, NH Patch . Archived from the original on June 22, 2012. Retrieved August 10, 2012.
  30. ↑ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  31. ↑ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  32. ↑ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  33. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  34. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ↑ New England College
  36. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  37. ↑ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  38. ↑ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  39. ↑ NBC/WSJ/Marist
  40. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  41. ↑ New England College
  42. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ↑ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  44. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  45. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  46. ↑ Suffolk University/7NEWS Archived 2012-10-17 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ↑ American Research Group
  48. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  49. ↑ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  50. ↑ WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  51. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  52. ↑ NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist College
  53. ↑ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Archived 2012-09-27 at the Wayback Machine
  54. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  55. 1 2 3 4 5 6 WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  56. 1 2 3 4 Rasmussen Reports
  57. 1 2 3 4 WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  58. 1 2 WMUR/University of New Hampshire
  59. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Public Policy Polling
  60. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  61. ↑ "Governor - 2012 General Election - NHSOS". Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  62. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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