The power of demography
Demography tells the story of our lives. It is about how old we are likely to become, how many children we can expect to have, and where and how we are likely to spend our lives. Demographic change has a powerful impact on our economies, on our welfare and health systems as well as on housing and infrastructure needs in Europe's regions. This in turn has implications for government budgets and policies. The EU integrates demographic concerns into the development of relevant EU policies and we have taken a number of specific initiatives at EU level which support Member States in dealing with demographic change.
Read the report: The impact of demographic change in a changing environment
Highlights
23 April 2024 - Commission issues recommendations to better protect children from violence
The Commission has today adopted the Recommendation on developing and strengthening integrated child protection systems in the best interests of the child, as a commitment in the EU Strategy on the Rights of the Child. The EU still faces significant challenges in protecting children from violence, including bullying and childhood sexual violence. The Recommendation will support Member States in strengthening their child protection systems.
Demographic trends
Understanding the causes and effects of demographic transitions allows us to better manage their consequences and make use of their opportunities, ultimately helping us build a prosperous EU for future generations.
- More working from home
The share of employed people working from home in the EU jumped from 1 in 7 people in 2019 to 1 in 5 in 2020. In 2021, almost every fourth person was working from home.
- Lower birth rate
In 2020, the average number of childbirths per woman was 1.5, which is well below the value of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population.
- Growing senior population
By 2050 the share of people over 65 will be around 30%, compared to around 20% today.
- Smaller households
The number of households has continued to grow, while the average household size has continued to fall. Households composed by a single person have grown the fastest, to over 70 million in 2021.
- Living longer
Following a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gradual increase in life expectancy has resumed. In 2021, the life expectancy in the EU was estimated at 82.8 years for women and 77.2 years for men.
- Less Europeans in the world
The share of Europe’s population in the world is shrinking and it will account for around 4% of the world’s population in 2070 compared to 6% today.
The impact of demographic change
Demographic change in the EU has an impact on
- the labour market - as Europe’s working-age population is shrinking sustaining economic growth requires us to bring more people into the labour market and/or to increase productivity through technological advances and skills development
- employment - as people live longer and healthier lives, many citizens want to work longer, although not necessarily in the same kind of jobs.
- care services - the growing share of older people in the EU brings an increased need for care services and challenges the long-term financial sustainability of our welfare states
- demographic balance - demographic trends do not affect every country and every region in the same way. Whereas a number of EU Member States are projected to experience a decline in their population already in the next years, others are projected to see population growth over the same period
- rural areas - generally speaking, rural regions are more affected by population decline due to natural changes and outmigration than predominantly urban ones
- Europe’s position in the world - as the EU’s share of the global population is projected to continue falling in the coming decades, the need for close cooperation at all levels to ensure the competitiveness of our Single Market becomes ever more pressing
Europe's ageing population
Europeans are living longer and healthier lives than ever before. In the coming decades, the share and number of older people in the EU will increase. This trend has a significant impact on people’s everyday lives and on our societies, which brings with it both opportunities and challenges.
- Shrinking youth population
The share of people in the 15-29-year-old age range decreased from 18.1% in 2011, to 16.3% in 2021. This trend is expected to continue and become even more pronounced in rural regions.
- Growing senior population
By 2050, the share of people over 65 will be around 30%, compared to around 20% today. An older population poses challenges for things like pension systems and the healthcare sector.
Given the scale, speed and impact this trend will have across society, it is important to consider new approaches and ensure that policies are fit for purpose in an era of major change – from the green and digital transitions to new forms of work and addressing the key health challenges, including pandemics.
Competences for dealing with the effects of ageing are largely in the hands of Member States and the EU is well placed to identify key issues and trends and support action on ageing at national, regional, and local level. It can help Member States and regions develop their own, tailor-made policy responses to ageing.
Green paper on ageing
The European Commission published the green paper on ageing in January 2021 launching a broad policy debate on ageing to discuss options on how to anticipate and respond to the challenges and opportunities that ageing brings as well as how to help keep a good life quality of the ageing population as long as possible. Contributions to the public consultation on the green paper helped identify the measures needed to support to promote economic and social resilience in an ageing Europe.
Demography Toolbox
Europe is undergoing a major demographic transformation. Demographic change has a profound impact on everyday life and requires holistic and integrated solutions.
Since our citizens are living longer and healthier lives, all our policies need to be forward-looking and support the shift from an ageing to a longevity society.
The June 2023 European Council conclusions called on the Commission to put forward a toolbox to support Member States in addressing demographic challenges and their impact on Europe’s competitive edge.
The demography toolbox, prepared in response by the Commission, draws on experiences from across the EU and sets out a comprehensive approach to demographic change structured around four pillars:
- support parents by better reconciling family aspirations and paid work, notably by ensuring access to quality childcare and good work-life balance;
- supporting and empowering younger generations to thrive, develop their skills, facilitate their access to the labour market and to affordable housing;
- empowering older generations and sustaining their welfare, through reforms combined with appropriate labour market and workplace policies;
- where necessary, addressing labour shortages through managed legal migration, in full complementarity to harnessing talents from within the EU.
The toolbox recognises the need to take on board the territorial dimension of demographic shifts, specifically in regions that experience the phenomenon of population decline and a significant outward mobility of young workers (‘brain drain’).
Tool to visualise, monitor and anticipate demographic change.
Ensuring care services that put people first, from childhood to old age.
Connecting rural areas to make them stronger, resilient and more prosperous.
Empowering children as agents of change today and on their way to becoming tomorrow’s leaders.
Supporting children in need by improving access to basics like education and housing.
Preventing and combatting child sexual abuse, online and offline.
EU strategy to protect and empower children in the online world.
Addressing a critical public health issue with effective intervention strategies.
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Understanding the links between population dynamics and the causes and consequences of climate change will help design future-looking policies for a greener planet.
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