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Financial betting refers to the wagering on the price development of a financial instrument at some later date relative to the current price or level of the instrument, against odds offered by a bookmaker. Maximum potential pay-off of the wager is known when the bet is taken and as a corollary risk is known beforehand by being limited to the initial stake.
Financial betting instruments are a type of digital option. The outcome of the wager at settlement is binary, that is, either a win or a loss. Settlement is executed in cash and there is no delivery of the underlying asset. At any point in time prior to the settlement date bets can often be sold, allowing for possibilities to bet on the accuracy of a market move within the fixed limits of zero win (loss of the stake) and maximum potential win. A fee might sometimes be charged for this service.
The main difference between financial betting and speculation on financial markets using products such as financial spread betting is that the bet must result in a simple binary win or loss based on an event on the underlying financial instruments. This triggers a fixed payout for a win, while with spread betting the payout or loss varies with the price level of the underlying instrument.
Odds have to be consistent with the real-time pricing of the underlying financial instruments listed on foreign exchange markets or securities exchanges in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities (although this might not be possible because of limitations on shorting, i.e. laying bets). Calculation of the odds therefore draws on the Black–Scholes formula for pricing options. Using some variation of the model to solve for volatility, from observed market prices of traded options, gives implied volatility. Implied volatility is forward looking, that is, it can be used to estimate the odds for future price movements using mathematical algorithms.
There are three main variations of financial betting. These vary mainly in the way odds are displayed.
Within financial floating odds the odds change for a given strike price as the price of the underlying changes. The floating odds company calculates odds for different strikes and how much can be won upon settlement depends on how much is bet at those odds.
Within financial fixed odds betting the odds are fixed, while the strike price where a win is achieved relative the current level changes. The fixed odds company will calculate how much has to be bet to win a certain amount upon settlement if the conditions of the prediction become true.
Binary betting displays odds as an index from 0 to 100 where the bet settles at 100 if the event happens and 0 if it does not. An amount is wagered per point on the index. The event can be bought or sold, making it possible to profit both from the event occurring or not occurring.
A central feature of financial betting is the fixed risk nature which allows market participants to limit the risk to a known amount. When one opens a bet (long or short) they know beforehand what risk they are taking. What is important here is that you can exit your bet at any time before settlement thus you have an option of minimizing the risk even further. The same can be applied to the winning bets (you can collect the win before the settlement time).
Liquidity is always provided and is achieved by the bookmaker acting as a market maker, always being willing to sell bets to a buyer, and in the case it is permitted, to buy bets back from a participant wanting to sell the bet before it expires.
A central feature of financial betting is leverage. The benefit of leverage to the participant is that it allows a greater percentage change in capital than if it were invested directly in the underlying asset. This makes financial betting less capital intensive than trading directly on securities exchanges.
In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets – striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price.
In finance, a derivative is a contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often simply called the underlying. Derivatives can be used for a number of purposes, including insuring against price movements (hedging), increasing exposure to price movements for speculation, or getting access to otherwise hard-to-trade assets or markets.
Gambling is the wagering of something of value on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration, risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season.
Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds betting or parimutuel betting.
Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction is correct, they receive a payout based on the fixed odds. This means that the potential winnings are known at the time of placing the bet, regardless of any changes in the odds leading up to the event.
In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the likelihood of a particular outcome. When specific events are equally likely, odds are calculated as the ratio of the number of events that produce that outcome to the number that do not. Odds are commonly used in gambling and statistics.
In finance, a futures contract is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other. The asset transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price of the contract is known as the forward price or delivery price. The specified time in the future when delivery and payment occur is known as the delivery date. Because it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative.
A hedge is an investment position intended to offset potential losses or gains that may be incurred by a companion investment. A hedge can be constructed from many types of financial instruments, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, insurance, forward contracts, swaps, options, gambles, many types of over-the-counter and derivative products, and futures contracts.
In finance, an exotic option is an option which has features making it more complex than commonly traded vanilla options. Like the more general exotic derivatives they may have several triggers relating to determination of payoff. An exotic option may also include a non-standard underlying instrument, developed for a particular client or for a particular market. Exotic options are more complex than options that trade on an exchange, and are generally traded over the counter.
In finance, a swap is an agreement between two counterparties to exchange financial instruments, cashflows, or payments for a certain time. The instruments can be almost anything but most swaps involve cash based on a notional principal amount.
A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all. The two main types of binary options are the cash-or-nothing binary option and the asset-or-nothing binary option. The former pays some fixed amount of cash if the option expires in-the-money while the latter pays the value of the underlying security. They are also called all-or-nothing options, digital options, and fixed return options (FROs).
Rational pricing is the assumption in financial economics that asset prices – and hence asset pricing models – will reflect the arbitrage-free price of the asset as any deviation from this price will be "arbitraged away". This assumption is useful in pricing fixed income securities, particularly bonds, and is fundamental to the pricing of derivative instruments.
Vigorish is the fee charged by a bookmaker for accepting a gambler's wager. In American English, it can also refer to the interest owed a loanshark in consideration for credit. The term came to English usage via Yiddish slang which was itself a loanword from Russian.
A betting strategy is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. Betting systems are often predicated on statistical analysis.
In finance, a contract for difference (CFD) is a legally binding agreement that creates, defines, and governs mutual rights and obligations between two parties, typically described as "buyer" and "seller", stipulating that the buyer will pay to the seller the difference between the current value of an asset and its value at contract time. If the closing trade price is higher than the opening price, then the seller will pay the buyer the difference, and that will be the buyer's profit. The opposite is also true. That is, if the current asset price is lower at the exit price than the value at the contract's opening, then the seller, rather than the buyer, will benefit from the difference.
Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome.
Fixed-income arbitrage is a group of market-neutral-investment strategies that are designed to take advantage of differences in interest rates between varying fixed-income securities or contracts. Arbitrage in terms of investment strategy, involves buying securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy.
Asian handicap betting is a form of betting on football in which teams are handicapped according to their form so that a stronger team must win by more goals for a bet on them to win. The system originated in Indonesia and gained popularity in the early 21st century. It is a form of spread betting. Handicaps typically range from one-quarter goal to several goals, in increments of half- or even quarter-goals.
In finance, an option is a contract which conveys to its owner, the holder, the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific quantity of an underlying asset or instrument at a specified strike price on or before a specified date, depending on the style of the option. Options are typically acquired by purchase, as a form of compensation, or as part of a complex financial transaction. Thus, they are also a form of asset and have a valuation that may depend on a complex relationship between underlying asset price, time until expiration, market volatility, the risk-free rate of interest, and the strike price of the option. Options may be traded between private parties in over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, or they may be exchange-traded in live, public markets in the form of standardized contracts.
A foreign exchange derivative is a financial derivative whose payoff depends on the foreign exchange rates of two currencies. These instruments are commonly used for currency speculation and arbitrage or for hedging foreign exchange risk.