2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi
Bicentennial Banner of Mississippi.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout60.4% Increase2.svg
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote60
Popular vote756,764539,398
Percentage57.60%41.06%

Mississippi Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
MS 2020 Pres.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. [2]

Contents

Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate.

As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippi voters supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippi voters supported Biden. [3] 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the white Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate. [4] Biden flipped Warren County, with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. [5]

2020 Mississippi Republican primary [6]
CandidateVotes %Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)240,12598.6%40
Bill Weld 2,2920.9%0
Rocky De La Fuente 1,0780.4%0
Total243,495100%40

Democratic primary

Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race. [7]

2020 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary [8]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [9]
Joe Biden 222,16080.9634
Bernie Sanders 40,65714.822
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)6,9332.53
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)1,5500.56
Tulsi Gabbard 1,0030.37
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)5620.20
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)4500.16
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)4400.16
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)3780.14
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)2580.09
Total274,391100%36

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [10] Safe RSeptember 10, 2020
Inside Elections [11] Safe RSeptember 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] Safe RJuly 14, 2020
Politico [13] Safe RSeptember 8, 2020
RCP [14] Likely RAugust 3, 2020
Niskanen [15] Safe RJuly 26, 2020
CNN [16] Safe RAugust 3, 2020
The Economist [17] Likely RSeptember 2, 2020
CBS News [18] Likely RAugust 16, 2020
270towin [19] Safe RAugust 2, 2020
ABC News [20] Safe RJuly 31, 2020
NPR [21] Likely RAugust 3, 2020
NBC News [22] Safe RAugust 6, 2020
538 [23] Likely RNovember 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win [24] October 17–27, 2020November 3, 202040.0%57.0%3.0%
FiveThirtyEight [25] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202039.6%55.5%4.9%
Average39.8%56.3%3.9%Trump +16.5

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20201,461 (LV)± 4%61% [c] 37%--
Data For Progress [27] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020562 (LV)± 4.1%55%41%2%1%1% [d]
Civiqs/Daily Kos [28] Oct 23–26, 2020507 (LV)± 5.3%55%41%--3% [e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Oct 1–28, 20202,116 (LV)62%37%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Sep 1–30, 2020782 (LV)55%44%--1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Aug 1–31, 2020607 (LV)61%36%--3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance [29] [A] Aug 28–30, 2020600 (LV)± 4%50%40%No voters-No voters [f] 6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy [30] [B] Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020600 (LV)± 4.1%53% [g] 43%--
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Jul 1–31, 2020733 (LV)59%39%--2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26] Jun 8–30, 2020425 (LV)63%35%--2%
Chism Strategies (D) [31] Jun 2–4, 2020568 (LV)± 4.1%50%41%--6% [h] 3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College [32] Apr 8–9, 2020508 (RV)± 4.4%49%38%--7%7%
Mason-Dixon [33] Feb 26–28, 2020625 (RV)± 4.0%56%41%--3%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon [33] Feb 26–28, 2020625 (RV)± 4.0%59%36%5%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi [34]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
756,764 57.60% −0.26%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
539,39841.06%+1.00%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
8,0260.61%−0.58%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
3,6570.28%N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
1,4980.11%−0.20%
Prohibition Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker
1,3170.10%+0.04%
American Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
1,2790.10%−0.23%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll
Amar Patel
1,1610.09%N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
6590.05%N/A
Total votes1,313,759 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 5,69641.40%7,91757.54%1461.06%-2,221-16.14%13,759
Alcorn 12,81881.16%2,78217.62%1931.22%10,03663.54%15,793
Amite 4,50362.58%2,62036.41%731.01%1,86326.17%7,196
Attala 5,17858.69%3,54240.15%1031.16%1,63618.54%8,823
Benton 2,57059.92%1,67939.15%400.93%89120.77%4,289
Bolivar 4,67133.99%8,90464.78%1691.23%-4,233-30.79%13,744
Calhoun 4,62570.18%1,90228.86%630.96%2,72341.32%6,590
Carroll 3,92468.83%1,72930.33%480.84%2,19538.50%5,701
Chickasaw 4,17551.28%3,81046.80%1561.92%3654.48%8,141
Choctaw 3,00171.06%1,18528.06%370.88%1,81643.00%4,223
Claiborne 60313.55%3,77284.78%741.67%-3,169-71.23%4,449
Clarke 5,41764.97%2,83834.04%830.99%2,57930.93%8,338
Clay 4,18141.03%5,84457.36%1641.61%-1,663-16.33%10,189
Coahoma 2,37527.94%6,02070.82%1061.24%-3,645-42.88%8,501
Copiah 6,25048.51%6,47050.22%1631.27%-220-1.71%12,883
Covington 5,85462.54%3,41636.50%900.96%2,43826.04%9,360
DeSoto 46,46261.03%28,26537.13%1,3971.84%18,19723.90%76,124
Forrest 17,29054.62%13,75543.45%6091.93%3,53511.17%31,654
Franklin 2,92365.52%1,48033.18%581.30%1,44332.34%4,461
George 9,71387.91%1,21811.02%1181.07%8,49576.89%11,049
Greene 4,79482.48%96616.62%520.90%3,82865.86%5,812
Grenada 6,08155.73%4,73443.39%960.88%1,34712.34%10,911
Hancock 16,13276.98%4,50421.49%3211.53%11,62855.49%20,957
Harrison 46,82261.70%27,72836.54%1,3351.76%19,09425.16%75,885
Hinds 25,14125.09%73,55073.40%1,5171.51%-48,409-48.31%100,208
Holmes 1,36916.87%6,58881.18%1581.95%-5,219-64.31%8,115
Humphreys 1,11826.69%3,01672.00%551.31%-1,898-45.31%4,189
Issaquena 30845.56%35552.51%131.93%-47-6.95%676
Itawamba 9,43887.24%1,24911.54%1321.22%8,18975.70%10,819
Jackson 36,29566.54%17,37531.86%8731.60%18,92034.68%54,543
Jasper 4,30249.24%4,34149.69%931.07%-39-0.45%8,736
Jefferson 53113.59%3,32785.13%501.28%-2,796-71.54%3,908
Jefferson Davis 2,53440.79%3,59957.93%801.28%-1,065-17.14%6,213
Jones 21,22670.54%8,51728.30%3481.16%12,70942.24%30,091
Kemper 1,78737.77%2,88761.02%571.21%-1,100-23.25%4,731
Lafayette 12,94955.28%10,07042.99%4041.73%2,87912.29%23,423
Lamar 20,70472.57%7,34025.73%4861.70%13,36446.84%28,530
Lauderdale 17,96757.50%12,96041.48%3201.02%5,00716.02%31,247
Lawrence 4,28564.80%2,26034.18%681.02%2,02530.62%6,613
Leake 5,22856.83%3,89742.36%750.81%1,33114.47%9,200
Lee 24,20765.51%12,18932.98%5581.51%12,01832.53%36,954
Leflore 3,12928.72%7,64870.21%1161.07%-4,519-41.49%10,893
Lincoln 11,59669.02%5,04030.00%1650.98%6,55639.02%16,801
Lowndes 13,80050.66%13,08748.04%3541.30%7132.62%27,241
Madison 31,09155.16%24,44043.36%8301.48%6,65111.80%56,361
Marion 8,27367.94%3,78731.10%1170.96%4,48636.84%12,177
Marshall 7,56647.83%8,05750.94%1941.23%-491-3.11%15,817
Monroe 11,17764.76%5,87434.03%2081.21%5,30330.73%17,259
Montgomery 2,91757.48%2,12141.79%370.73%79615.69%5,075
Neshoba 8,32071.09%3,26027.86%1231.05%5,06043.23%11,703
Newton 6,99768.71%3,07530.20%1111.09%3,92238.51%10,183
Noxubee 1,24023.23%4,04075.67%591.10%-2,800-52.44%5,339
Oktibbeha 9,00445.57%10,29952.13%4542.30%-1,295-6.56%19,757
Panola 8,06051.58%7,40347.37%1641.05%6574.21%15,627
Pearl River 19,59581.53%4,14817.26%2901.21%15,44764.27%24,033
Perry 4,50076.06%1,36223.02%540.92%3,13853.04%5,916
Pike 8,47948.84%8,64649.80%2361.36%-167-0.96%17,361
Pontotoc 11,55080.43%2,61418.20%1971.37%8,93662.23%14,361
Prentiss 8,37078.64%2,15320.23%1211.13%6,21758.41%10,644
Quitman 1,02631.80%2,15066.65%501.55%-1,124-34.85%3,226
Rankin 50,89571.89%18,84726.62%1,0571.49%32,04845.27%70,799
Scott 6,28558.56%4,33040.34%1181.10%1,95518.22%10,733
Sharkey 68831.52%1,46567.11%301.37%-777-35.59%2,183
Simpson 7,63564.62%4,03734.17%1431.21%3,59830.45%11,815
Smith 6,45877.55%1,79121.51%780.94%4,66756.04%8,327
Stone 5,96475.70%1,80222.87%1121.43%4,16252.83%7,878
Sunflower 2,79928.91%6,78170.04%1011.05%-3,982-41.13%9,681
Tallahatchie 2,48843.76%3,10554.62%921.62%-617-10.86%5,685
Tate 8,70766.50%4,18331.95%2031.55%4,52434.55%13,093
Tippah 8,05479.73%1,93719.17%1111.10%6,11760.56%10,102
Tishomingo 7,93386.81%1,05911.59%1461.60%6,87475.22%9,138
Tunica 92625.97%2,58072.37%591.66%-1,654-46.40%3,565
Union 10,37381.79%2,16017.03%1501.18%8,21364.76%12,683
Walthall 4,22059.28%2,83539.82%640.90%1,38519.46%7,119
Warren 10,36549.23%10,44249.60%2461.17%-77-0.37%21,053
Washington 5,30029.39%12,50369.33%2311.28%-7,203-39.94%18,034
Wayne 6,30762.72%3,62436.04%1251.24%2,68326.68%10,056
Webster 4,29179.54%1,04319.33%611.13%3,24860.21%5,395
Wilkinson 1,32432.08%2,74966.61%561.31%-1,425-34.53%4,127
Winston 5,11255.35%4,04043.74%840.91%1,07211.61%9,236
Yalobusha 3,67156.17%2,78542.62%791.21%88613.55%6,535
Yazoo 4,83246.30%5,49652.66%1081.04%-664-6.36%10,436
Totals756,76457.57%539,39841.04%18,3131.39%217,36616.53%1,314,475
Mississippi County Swing 2020.svg
Mississippi County Trend 2020.svg
Mississippi County Flips 2020.svg

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 64.8%33.8% Trent Kelly
2nd 35.2%63.7% Bennie Thompson
3rd 60.1%38.6% Michael Guest
4th 68.3%30.3% Steven Palazzo

Analysis

Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump comfortably carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.

Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.

In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was rejected. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to get rid of the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.

This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states, due to African Americans comprising 37.94% of its population. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden. [3]

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  5. "Someone else" with 3%
  6. "Refused" with no voters
  7. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  8. "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina</span>

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island</span>

The 2020 United States presidential election in Rhode Island was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Rhode Island voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Rhode Island has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota</span>

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Mississippi voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.

References

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Further reading