We said: Alanyaspor 2-1 Istanbul Basaksehir
Alanyaspor's strong home form gives them the edge, but with Piatek returning to the XI, Basksehir should post more threat in attack, which is why we are predicting a win for the hosts, but expecting it to be a closely fought encounter.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alanyaspor win with a probability of 52.45%. A win for Istanbul Basaksehir had a probability of 23.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alanyaspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Istanbul Basaksehir win was 0-1 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Alanyaspor would win this match.