Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.94%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 11.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.95%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.16%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
11.69% ( -0.13) | 19.37% ( -0.02) | 68.94% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 44.22% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.24% ( -0.23) | 47.76% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.05% ( -0.22) | 69.95% ( 0.21) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.68% ( -0.37) | 49.31% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.82% ( -0.26) | 84.18% ( 0.26) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.24% ( -0.03) | 12.76% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.97% ( -0.06) | 39.02% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 4.45% ( -0) 2-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 11.69% | 1-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.59% Total : 19.37% | 0-2 @ 13.33% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 12.95% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 9.43% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 9.15% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 6.47% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 4.71% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.78% Total : 68.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 15 | 41 | 50 |
2 | Benfica | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 16 | 30 | 44 |
3 | Porto | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 17 | 27 | 42 |
4 | Braga | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 40 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 35 |
6 | Casa Pia | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 29 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 27 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 24 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 24 |
11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 22 |
14 | Nacional | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 12 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |