Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 60.85%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 20.38% and a draw had a probability of 18.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.33%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (5.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.