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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 44.06%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Swansea City |
44.06% ( 0.7) | 24.69% ( 0.04) | 31.24% ( -0.74) |
Both teams to score 57.36% ( -0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.46% ( -0.49) | 45.54% ( 0.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.13% ( -0.47) | 67.87% ( 0.47) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.25% ( 0.11) | 20.75% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.62% ( 0.17) | 53.38% ( -0.17) |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.38% ( -0.71) | 27.62% ( 0.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.84% ( -0.93) | 63.16% ( 0.93) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Swansea City |
2-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 44.06% | 1-1 @ 11.59% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.69% | 1-2 @ 7.46% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.89% Total : 31.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 63 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Burnley | 30 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 58 |
4 | Sunderland | 30 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 45 | 26 | 19 | 58 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 45 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 44 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 44 |
8 | Norwich CityNorwich | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 42 |
9 | Bristol City | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 42 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 42 |
11 | Coventry CityCoventry | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 41 |
12 | Watford | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 41 |
13 | Millwall | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 40 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 38 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 37 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 37 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 34 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
19 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 31 |
20 | Portsmouth | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Hull City | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 27 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 25 |
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