Kevin Costner's Colossal 'Horizon' Gamble

Following his departure from the hit series Yellowstone, Kevin Costner took a potentially huge financial risk with his new project—and it could impact his reputation, according to experts who spoke with Newsweek.

The Hollywood actor is on the promotion trail for his new movie, Horizon: An American Saga, which he plans to release in four parts. Chapter 1 is set to hit theaters on June 28, while Chapter 2 will follow on August 16. Horizon is the first project Costner has directed since Open Range in 2003, which was also a Western.

The project is a big financial risk for Costner who, according to The Hollywood Reporter, invested $38 million of his own money in the project that he also directed, cowrote and naturally produced. Set during the settlement of America's Western frontier, the films span a 15-year period that covers before and after the Civil War, with each movie aiming to be a separate story with links to the others.

While Horizon has managed to nab an impressive ensemble cast that includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Tatanka Means and Thomas Haden Church, its box office projections are decreasing as the release date gets closer.

According to Screen Rant, the film is on course for a $12 million opening weekend, after previously being expected to gross $17 million just weeks earlier. The first two chapters of the upcoming project estimated to cost a combined total of $100 million—still according to Screen Rant.

Newsweek emailed a spokesperson for Costner for comment Thursday.

Risky Business

Donia Youssef, the director of Monster World Studios LTD, a film and animation company
based in London, told Newsweek that while Horizon is a movie that's got everyone talking, Costner is "taking a bold financial gamble."

"Not only is he starring in it, but he's also directing and producing, which means he's putting a lot of his own money and reputation on the line. In today's unpredictable film industry, this is a high-stakes bet," she explained.

"If Horizon hits it big, it could solidify Costner's status as a Hollywood heavyweight and a daring filmmaker. But if it doesn't do well at the box office, it could have serious financial consequences and impact his future projects. It's a risky move, but Costner's always been one to take chances, and this one could really pay off—or not. It's definitely a situation to watch closely."

Newsweek spoke to Alex De Castro, a former studio executive who has spent years greenlighting films from a financial perspective and analyzing box office projections. With 20 years of experience, he has held executive positions at The Walt Disney Company, Sony Pictures Entertainment and Village Roadshow/Warner Bros. Studios in the areas of finance, strategic planning, marketing, distribution and film acquisitions.

"I don't know too much about the [cost] structure but I can tell that if Kevin Costner had to put his own money in, that means that the studio was probably not willing to take the risk—and for many reasons," he told Newsweek.

One such reason is the fact that it's a Western, which De Castro said tends to only work domestically, meaning studios and producers are giving up the international market. The former studio executive said statistically speaking, the film will also mainly cater to an older demographic.

"Once you add in the cost and so forth, of course, people are going to look at it and say it's going to be a disaster financially," De Castro continued.

"How much of a disaster depends on a lot of things. It depends on the revenue cost structure of the actual film and Mr. Costner's deal. For example, he may not be in the same situation as other investors in this film because he is the talent and he may have negotiated a deal where, you know, in the best-case scenario he gets first dollar. It's probably not possible but he could have some sort of very sweet deal in the waterfall which we are not privy to, which could make his investment less risky than other investments."

First-dollar gross is when someone involved in a film receives a share of its gross box-office earnings beginning on the first day of the movie's release.

De Castro added that in terms of the total investment, Costner might not be putting forward any of the marketing and distribution costs of a film. Since we don't know the ins and outs of Costner's deal, it is difficult to determine how financially risky the film is for the actor compared to the average investor—but there is certainly risk involved.

Potential Success

There is also a chance that Horizon will be a success. De Castro referred to Titanic to drive home this point, explaining how the 1997 James Cameron film was considered one of the riskiest in Hollywood. This was due to its—at the time—relatively unknown cast, the fact that it was "extremely expensive" and had a sad ending. Despite these concerns, it has gone down as one of the biggest box office successes in history.

"My point is, you never know, you never know. There is always a chance that [Horizon] may be a beautiful film that gathers more and more attention. Titanic didn't have a huge opening but it had legs, it was just a great film...and got Academy Awards, kept on playing and recouped its money," he explained.

"So, is this film going to recoup its money in the first weekend? No, but it really depends on how it performs in the long run and whether it's a success, but the odds are against it. I recognize that and I think a lot of people recognize that but it's not to say that it doesn't have the potential to be a fabulous award-winning film and eventually break even."

De Castro highlighted the fact that Costner has been down this road once before with his film Waterworld, which the former studio executive said was considered the "biggest disaster of all time."

Released in 1995, it was the most expensive movie ever made with an estimated final cost of $175 million, according to Screen Rant, and it received mixed reviews from critics. The film failed to recoup its budget at the box office, despite being the ninth highest-grossing movie that year. However, the film eventually became profitable due to video and other post-cinema sales, per Variety.

De Castro said that even though there is a strong chance Horizon won't be an instant success, it could eventually find an appreciative audience.

Sean Boelman, a TV/film critic and Critics' Choice member, told Newsweek that while Horizon has become an increasingly worrisome box office prospect, the early box office tracking does not present a complete picture of its commercial prospects.

"The behavior of the older demographic targeted by Horizon makes forecasting grosses even more difficult than usual. Many older moviegoers don't purchase tickets in advance, and advance sales make up much of the forecasting," he explained.

"It is also important to note that this summer's box office has been less front-loaded than usual. Many films have opened below expectations but had small week-over-week drops, allowing them to have impressive multiples. For example, IF made a first weekend of $33 million but will cross the $100 million mark; The Fall Guy opened lower at $27 million but has managed to make $85 million and counting over its run. Although these are hardly blockbuster numbers, they show that films in 2024 don't have to open huge to be successful."

Boelman said Chapter 1 of the four-part installment is in a unique position because it opens the weekend before July 4. Even if the film has a low opening weekend on June 28, it could have better success in the following long weekend, July 4-7.

He continued: "Also, consider the fact that Horizon was envisioned as a multi-part experience. The combined budget for the first two films was around $100 million—meaning that it's the success of the two films together that matters most.

"Since the first film is being released in June and the second in August, it stands to reason that Chapter 1 will be available for at-home viewing around the time of Chapter 2's theatrical release. This presents another revenue opportunity: people paying PVOD [Premium Video On Demand] prices (anywhere from $19.99 to $29.99) to watch or rewatch the first film before seeing the second.

"While Horizon: An American Saga is unlikely to be a smash hit, don't count it entirely out of the summer box office race just yet. The film has the potential to be a grassroots word-of-mouth success that opens low but holds nicely week-to-week."

Impact on Reputation

De Castro told Newsweek that if Horizon is universally panned and fails at the box office it could impact Costner's reputation in the short term but it would remain intact in the long run.

"In the short term, you're just as good as your last film...I'm sure he's had his ups and downs, I mean he's had classics like Dances with Wolves and on the other end there's been Waterworld, so it's just really the situation of what's your next film going to be. Is it going to be a success or not?" he said.

"But he has an incredible career of making wonderful films so, I think in terms of reputation, I think it would be short-lived...He's an icon, what can I say."

Speaking to The Hollywood Reporter in Cannes, France, Costner explained why he put his own money into the project.

"I don't want to let this pile of things I have—whether it's money, whether it's [possessions]—be so important to me that I can't think about what I want to do," he explained. "I'm going to keep enough things that my family's going to be good. ... I'd like to have money, I'd like to have nice things, but I thought to myself, 'That's going to control me if I let it.'"

Horizon will focus on both settler groups and the Native Americans that call the land their home—themes that are similar to that of the TV series Yellowstone and its prequels 1883 and 1923.

"It's a really beautiful story; it's a hard story," the actor told Variety in June 2022. "It really involves a lot of women, to be honest. There are a lot of men in it, too, but the women are really strong in Horizon. It's just them trying to get by every day in a world that was impossibly tough."

Many have believed that the Western project played a role in the sudden end of the fan-favorite show, Yellowstone, in which Costner starred. Paramount said Costner refused to shoot more episodes, but the actor has refuted this claim. He said that the studio wanted to alter his contract because show creator Taylor Sheridan was delayed in writing the script.

"There was no script. And then things imploded. You've been reading one version [of the show's drama] for a year and a half," Costner told Deadline.

"I have taken a beating from those f****** guys and I know a lot of times where it's coming from. I just elected not to get into that. But if you know me well enough, I made Yellowstone the first priority, and to insinuate anything else would be wrong."