The shocking assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, his defiant pose, and convention performance have all added to the post-NATO conference pressure on President Joe Biden. Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi knocked on his door in a panic. Then Covid knocked, too.
Part of the panic is that the Democrats have now seen their campaign narratives dissolve. They planned to run on saving democracy and bringing the country together with a unified party. Bizarrely, despite his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, the assassination attempt has gifted those narratives to Trump.
Trump supporters could sweep both houses of Congress, with executive power to deliver his agenda—based on the Heritage Foundation's audaciously authoritarian Project 2025—or just unbridled chaos. Or Trumpism could be stemmed, at least for a while, and the Republican party, once frozen by his endorsement power's grip, might re-emerge as the center-right GOP.
With all this at stake, the necessity of Biden's departure seems clear. Yet he and his aides have remained defiant despite numerous meetings with senior party leaders.
Why would Biden resist the obvious and inevitable?
Firstly, Biden has been here before. Twice. In 2016 he was told by senior democratic leaders he wouldn't beat Trump (and Hillary Clinton would). In 2020, he was told he wouldn't beat Trump and was too old. The chattering classes were wrong twice; they might be wrong again.
Secondly, mixed messaging. Polls don't prove that he can't win, and Vice President Kamala Harris can.
Thirdly, though mentioned more by Republicans, is Biden's fear that he may be forced into stepping down as president, too. Would leaving the race confirm incapacity? Some might want a President Harris to both lock the nomination and win votes.
To persuade Biden to leave the race, they must deal with these three issues head on.
What do Biden and the Democrats who want him out share? A desire to win. So, what do they need? The best candidate chosen in a smooth and party-mandated process. They need to replace damage control with unity.
They are in danger of getting none of these things.
So, how do you negotiate with Biden to get him to leave office? What does Biden most want?
For Trump to lose again, to be treated with dignity, and to leave a legacy that's honored for all time.
His age is being framed by some as the reason he can't beat Trump. Biden disagrees. So, why not reframe the issue around the risk his age it brings to successfully serving another full term, ending aged 86? The impact the next four years may have on his legacy may be enough to move him.
It's also an easier sell to his closest aides, and family. Do they really want him to endure another four grueling years? Most likely no. They want him to be treated with, and leave with, dignity.
Biden can still announce he's "passing the torch," but without accepting any diminished capacity, or even accepting that he can't beat Trump. He can deliver a witty withdrawal speech, acknowledging that age might have caught up with him by 2028. He can use it as a springboard for a positive—not panicky—convention.
Instead of sidelined, he helps ensure the nomination process unites the party. The candidate uses Biden's record on the economy—global inflation aside—and bipartisan bills passed. He can see his legacy, not as a library, but as ammunition to stop Trump again.
This is a very different proposition, and it's not too late to negotiate it. The Democrats should use someone Joe, and his closest aides, most trust as the negotiator. Biden's family should be there, too.
This can bring a calm and dignified Biden exit, reflecting his dignity and accomplishments. The nomination process could reflect that too, showing a party united behind its best candidate, who is ready to run on his record.
Or we could be left in the perilous position we find ourselves in now. This last negotiation could decide it all.
Paul Alexander is founder of the Centre for Strategic Negotiations. CSN focuses on power and interest to transform negotiations.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
