Former President Donald Trump is now favored to win in five swing states, according to a new election forecast.
While President Joe Biden's reelection campaign has yet to see the lasting impact of his debate performance against Trump in Atlanta last month, it no doubt has taken a blow, with some of the president's fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill calling for him to drop out of the race. Biden has vowed to stay in the race, telling ABC News' George Stephanopoulos in an interview released last week that he will drop out only if God Almighty tells him to.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) updated their 2024 presidential forecast and predictions this week to show Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, gaining ground in battleground states with a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency.
"The former President is now slightly favored over Biden in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In contrast, Biden maintains a slight edge in Michigan, Minnesota, and Maine," the update said about the eight states.
According to The Hill/DDHQ forecast map, Trump leads Biden 51 percent to 49 percent in Nevada, 61 to 39 in Arizona, 63 to 38 in Georgia, 59 to 41 in Pennsylvania, and 59 to 41 in Wisconsin. Biden leads Trump 53 percent to 47 percent in Michigan, 67 to 33 in Minnesota, and 66 to 34 in Maine.
Trump has now tied his best odds of winning the election since the forecast launched last May, according to the update.
Trump is currently predicted to win 235 electoral votes while Biden will get 226, according to the forecast map. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan still remain toss-ups, while Minnesota and Maine lean Democratic. The forecast update said that Trump can get to 270 electoral votes, enough to win the election, if he wins any four of the eight states mentioned above, but there are other ways.
"His most efficient path remains Pennsylvania and Georgia, which would net him exactly 270 electoral votes without needing to flip any other states," the update read.
While Biden won all eight states in 2020, he led in the toss-up states by slim margins. He won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points, Arizona by 0.3, Georgia by 0.2, Pennsylvania by 1.2, Wisconsin by 0.7 and Michigan by 2.8.
Newsweek reached out to Biden and Trump's campaigns via email on Wednesday.
Biden-Harris 2024 Battleground States Director Dan Kanninen said in a statement given to Newsweek by the Biden campaign on Sunday: "While Trump has little to no presence in the battlegrounds and spends time holding events in New York City, our campaign has more than 200 offices and 1,000 staffers across the states that make up our path to 270 electoral votes."
What Do Polls Show?
In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted from July 1 to 5, Trump led Biden by 2 percentage points (47 percent to 45 percent) among the seven swing states polled—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In those states, 4,902 registered voters were polled and there was a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
When looking at each state individually, Biden was ahead of Trump in Michigan by 5 percentage points (48-43) and Wisconsin by 3 points (47-44). Trump led Biden in Georgia by 1 percentage point (47-46), Nevada by 3 points (48-45), Pennsylvania by 7 points (51-44), Arizona by 3 points (48-45) and North Carolina by 3 points (46-43).
There were 694 registered voters polled in Michigan, 695 in Wisconsin, 790 in Georgia, 452 in Nevada, 794 in Pennsylvania, 781 in Arizona and 696 in North Carolina. The margin of error for Georgia and Pennsylvania was plus or minus 3 percentage points; Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin was plus or minus 4 percentage points; and Nevada was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
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Rachel Dobkin is a Newsweek reporter based in New York. Her focus is reporting on politics. Rachel joined Newsweek in ... Read more
