Nigeria's security czar pulled a mobile phone from his white gown to show a video of a man with his head wrapped in a full turban. Addressing the camera somewhere in the scrubby badlands of northern Nigeria, the figure made a statement from behind mirrored goggles.
"This is one of the biggest bandits," National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu told Newsweek. "And he wants to stop fighting."
Any respite from Nigeria's multiple mini-wars is a welcome relief to the giant African country, whose population of 220 million is forecast to pass that of the United States in little over a generation. By then it could become the world's second biggest democracy after India's, but only if it can survive some of the greatest challenges of its existence. It is beset by Islamist insurgents, separatist movements, kidnapping and robbery.
Nigeria is definitely on the edge. So any event could spark, just like a match.
Attempts at economic reform, along with capital flight exacerbated by cryptocurrency transfers, have led to a tumbling currency and soaring inflation in a nation that was already home to more of the world's extreme poor than all bar one country. Nigeria sits near the bottom of international corruption leagues and has earned a reputation as a home to scammers who operate globally to trick Americans and others of their savings.
If the world's biggest Black nation can fulfill the potential it has long been credited with, it could become a driving force for the continent and beyond. American companies are in the forefront of those eager to invest. Nigerian authors, musicians, artists, businesspeople and global public officials have given the world a taste of its talents.
But failure and fragmentation could spell a disaster of vast scale, spilling conflict across Africa and sending an even larger human wave fleeing to seek safety and new lives in Europe and worldwide.
President Bola Tinubu described Nigeria's challenges as "steep and multiple" in an address on Democracy Day, June 12, some 25 years after the return of democracy to a country that had previously been under long spells of army rule. Tinubu's office declined to answer Newsweek's questions on the record.
Tinubu, 72, a former governor of the megacity of Lagos, had been a wheeler-dealer in a money-fueled Nigerian political scene that was widely regarded with skepticism by Nigerians. He took office after a fraught election in 2023 that was challenged by his rivals and won with less than 10 percent of registered voters following a low turnout.
Oil-producing Nigeria's economy is now forecast to sink to fourth place on the continent behind Egypt, South Africa and Algeria. The naira currency has lost more than half its value against the dollar. Inflation stands at nearly 34 percent year on year.
"Nigeria is definitely on the edge. So any event could spark, just like a match," said Michael Nwankpa, executive director of the Centre for African Conflict and Development. "I would lean more toward Nigeria will survive because Nigerians are very resilient, but there are so many factors that threaten its unity," he told Newsweek.
History of Religious Violence
No problem is more fundamental than security in a country that is roughly split between Muslims and Christians, and which has a history of religious violence, even if the Muslim president's marriage to a Christian pastor underlines what is often a high degree of tolerance too. Friction is often more about ethnic differences in a country whose boundaries were set by 19th century British colonialists, and which has over 250 ethnic groups.
"I would suggest that Nigeria at present is not holding together," former U.S. Ambassador John Campbell told Newsweek. "What you have is a government whose writ runs in only certain parts of the country and there are alternative power centers all over the country."
The bloodiest of Nigeria's 21st-century wars have been with the jihadist factions stemming from the Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria—and whose 2014 abduction of 276 schoolgirls sparked the global "Bring Back Our Girls" campaign. But authorities also contend with separatists in the southeast, which tried to break away as independent Biafra in the 1960s; unrest in the oil-producing Niger Delta; centuries-old clashes between farmers and cattle herders; plus a general wave of banditry.
"A mix of challenges and improvements" is the way the situation over the past year was characterized by Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, a consultancy based in the capital, Abuja. It recorded 7,519 incidents with 9,892 fatalities and 6,292 abducted persons in the year to May 2024, noting those figures had risen by over 37 percent, four percent and 30 percent respectively on the previous year.
But National Security Adviser Ribadu, a reputed former corruption fighter, said there were increasing signs of success, even if the government had not trumpeted them. Islamist groups had been repelled. With the bandits, there had been success using persuasion rather than "kinetic" methods, he said. "We talk to them. This has to stop in everybody's interest."
Parts of Nigeria are seeing improvements. That includes the capital, Abuja, which was shaken by a series of nearby attacks in 2023. Infighting among Islamist factions has also helped ease some pressure on security forces. "In the past four or five months now, the sounds of assault rifles in the middle of the night have come down seriously," media executive Lawal Sani Kona told Newsweek from far northeastern town Jalingo. "There have been serious operations by both vigilantes and in collaboration with the authorities. And a lot of these people have been flushed. Some of them have been arrested, some have died in crossfire," he said."Even in the rural areas now, people are returning to their farms. It has not completely gone, but it has come down."
Economic Pain Intensified
Insecurity driving farmers from their land has pushed up food prices and exacerbated economic pain across Nigeria. The depth of that pain intensified with the removal of subsidies on gasoline after Tinubu took office last year. He also freed up an exchange rate system. The naira tumbled, sending import prices skyrocketing. "It is very difficult for any individual to survive in this country," said food seller Emmanuelle Bassey, sitting with a pile of smoked fish and vegetables at a food market in Lagos, the giant commercial capital.
You can see people going crazy. They are not crazy, they are hungry. They are frustrated, they don't have work to do, they don't have anywhere to go.
Not only the poorest are affected. In Lagos, shiny new buildings and giant mansions behind high walls show the massive wealth that some have acquired. But at the high-end Nike Art Gallery, owner Nike Davies-Okundaye says business has suffered as art has slipped down the list of priorities. "People have been finding it difficult because not everyone can eat three times [a day] now because it is so expensive," she told Newsweek.
For decades, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund advised Nigeria to remove the subsidies on fuel and to free up the naira because it was spending billions of dollars a year to support them. Subsidies became one of many avenues for corruption—with some cronies making fortunes on fuel imports and others benefiting from a favored exchange rate to cash in foreign exchange for an immediate profit.
"The reforms we have initiated are intended to create a stronger, better foundation for future growth. There is no doubt the reforms have occasioned hardship. Yet, they are necessary repairs required to fix the economy over the long run so that everyone has access to economic opportunity, fair pay and compensation for his endeavor and labor," Tinubu said.
The currency collapse was exacerbated by capital flight aided by cryptocurrency trades, authorities say. They accuse the world's largest crypto platform, Binance, of manipulating exchange rates, financing terrorism and money laundering.
Binance, which was fined over $4 billion in the U.S. on anti-money laundering and other charges, denies any wrongdoing and has called for the release of a U.S. executive now facing charges in Abuja. Another one absconded and fled the country.
While the removal of the subsidies should have freed up spending, some Nigerians complain that they are not seeing any benefit while their leaders thrive. Nigeria's presidency has rejected opposition leader Peter Obi's criticism of plans to buy a new presidential jet, which officials call a necessity. Obi's Labour Party did not respond to a request for comment.
'A One-Trick Pony'
"If you are within the corridors of power, then everything is fine," said Ebenezer Obadare from the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations, who nonetheless said that the removal of the subsidies was the right thing to do.
"They've done it, but it's not part of any larger, broader program that will boost the Nigerian economy," he told Newsweek. "Part of the problem is that Nigeria, economically speaking, is a one-trick pony."
There is much that remains to be done. But equally there is a sense of optimism amongst investors that Nigeria is moving in the right direction.
That one trick is crude oil. Official production fell to its lowest since the 1980s in 2022 due to chronic underinvestment and turmoil in the Niger Delta, where communities demand more of the wealth for themselves and abet industrial-scale oil theft. Far behind other populous countries such as Brazil or Indonesia—let alone India or China—Nigeria has consistently failed to diversify its economy. On a list of countries ranked by economic complexity, Nigeria ranks 127th out of 133, latest available data shows. There has been better news on oil production recently. Falling unrest helped push production back above 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and it is forecast by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to keep rising.
Nigeria's other big foreign currency earner has been its people. Remittances from migrants—the largest group of them in the U.S.—are estimated to be above $20 billion a year, making a much bigger difference for many families than any official help. The devaluation of the naira also means that those who get money from abroad see greater spending power on the ground. One of the main international concerns for Nigeria's future is far bigger emigration from the country and West African neighbors if it were to spiral out of control. "Population flows are directly tied to the downward trajectory in Nigeria," said former ambassador Campbell.
'Sense of Optimism'
Not everyone is downbeat on Nigeria, however. The devaluation has made some assets look cheap and foreign investors are bringing money back into treasury bills yielding over 20 percent. Real estate and stocks are now looking like better value as well.
"Throughout recent months, growth has actually surprised positively. There should be a further acceleration to come, helped by improved agricultural production and some recovery in oil production, as well as a slowing of inflation going forward.
"This is hardly likely to be evident to most Nigerians, so for now the cost of the reform is likely uppermost in most people's minds," Khan told Newsweek.
Adetilewa Adebajo, CEO at The CFG Advisory in Lagos, told Newsweek: "I think that is probably going to take another year until we can see if there's light at the end of the tunnel."
For President Tinubu: "The initial rays of a brighter tomorrow now appear on the early horizon. An abundant future and our capacity to achieve that future lie within our reach."
But Nigerians have heard appeals for patience and promises of greatness before. For those in a race against time to survive, the wait is already too long.
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