Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics are currently No. 2 in the Eastern Conference.
The 2023-24 Boston Celtics were, statistically, one of the best teams in NBA history.
The Celtics, not surprisingly, ran it back. All 10 players who logged more than 60 total minutes in the playoffs remain on the roster. And with that, they got 83% of the votes in this year’s GM Survey to win another title again in 2025. That’s the third highest rate in the 23-year history of the survey.
But the Celtics aren’t the same team that they were last season. They certainly haven’t been as dominant, and they come out of Christmas having lost two straight games for the first time.
Here are some notes, numbers and film on the changes in Boston.
1. Statistically worse against an easier schedule
Only three teams* have outscored their opponents by at least 10 points per game in consecutive seasons. Dominating the regular season for a second straight year after a long run to the NBA Finals is tough.
* Milwaukee Bucks in 1970-71 and ’71-72, Chicago Bulls in 1995-96 and ’96-97, Golden State Warriors in 2014-15, ’15-16 and ’16-17.
But these Celtics have also faced a relatively easy schedule, with their 30 games being against the league’s fifth-lowest cumulative opponent winning percentage (.469). Only 10 of their 30 games have come against the 13 teams that are currently at least two games above .500. (They’re 6-4 in those games.)
The Celtics haven’t seen a huge drop-off on either offense or defense and are still one of four teams — the Cavs, Grizzlies and Thunder are the others — that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor.
| Season | W | L | PCT | Pt. Diff. | Rank | AdjO | Rank | AdjD | Rank | NetRtg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 64 | 18 | 0.780 | +11.3 | 1 | +7.7 | 1 | -3.9 | 2 | +11.7 | 1 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 8 | 0.733 | +9.1 | 4 | +6.4 | 3 | -2.7 | 8 | +9.1 | 4 |
AdjO = Points scored per 100 possessions vs. league average
AdjD = Points allowed per 100 possessions vs. league average
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
This team still knows how to take advantage of its talent and execute on both ends of the floor. But the Celtics need to be continuously deliberate with their execution to be as dominant as they were last season. It may just be impossible to have the focus to do that over 82 games for a second straight season.
Whatever the reasons, the Celtics have come back to the pack a little bit, and may not be the overwhelming favorite that we thought they were two months ago.
2. More and more 3s
Last season, the Celtics led the league in 3-point rate, taking 47.1% of their shots from 3-point range. This season, they’ve seen the fourth biggest jump in 3-point rate, taking 55.1% of their shots, what would be the highest rate in NBA history, from beyond the arc.
Biggest jump, 3PA/FGA
| TEAM | 2023-24 | Rank | 2024-25 | Rank | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 35.8% | 29 | 48.0% | 2 | 12.2% |
| Charlotte | 39.1% | 15 | 47.1% | 3 | 8.0% |
| Minnesota | 38.4% | 17 | 46.5% | 5 | 8.0% |
| Boston | 47.1% | 1 | 55.1% | 1 | 8.0% |
| Phoenix | 37.8% | 21 | 45.3% | 7 | 7.5% |
The Celtics do not hesitate launching shots from beyond the arc.
Their 3-point attempts have been more off the dribble, more contested and less likely to follow a paint touch than they were last season …
- According to Second Spectrum tracking, only 62% of their 3-point attempts have been off the catch, the league’s fourth-lowest rate and down from 68% (sixth lowest) last season.
- Only 43% of their 3-point attempts have been wide open, the league’s fourth-lowest rate and down from 46% (sixth lowest) last season).
- The ball has touched the paint on just 58.3% of the Celtics’ possessions, the league’s second-lowest rate and down from 61.1% (fourth lowest) last season.
- Boston is the only team that ranks in the bottom three in both ball movement (29th) and player movement (30th), having ranked 17th and 24th last season.
When they’re a little more patient and deliberate about targeting weak defenders, taking advantage of mismatches, moving bodies and moving the ball, the Celtics can still get some great shots from beyond the arc …
And volume does matter. Though the Celtics have shot worse from 3-point range, they’ve outscored their opponents from beyond the arc in 25 (83%) of their 30 games, up from 54/82 (66%) last season.
They’re one of only five teams that have seen a drop in opponent 3-point rate, holding the league’s third-lowest opponent rate (40%) this season. So while they’re shooting 3s at a high volume themselves, they’re limiting their the volume of 3-point attempts on the other end of the floor.
With that, they’re not as dependent on shooting a high percentage from 3-point range. They’ve been slightly better when shooting below 36% from beyond the arc this season (9-6, .600) than they were last season (18-13, .581).
3. The bench isn’t historically good
The Celtics entered last season with a great top six, but questions about their depth. And then they had the best bench in the 28 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, with their reserves registering an aggregate point differential per 100 possessions of plus-6.2. Statistically, the Celtics were better with Jayson Tatum off the floor (plus 12.4) than they were with him on the floor (plus 11.2).
This season, though Payton Pritchard has seen big jumps in scoring and efficiency, reserve minutes haven’t been as good. The Celtics’ bench still ranks fourth but has seen the fourth biggest drop-off from last season.
This year, the Celtics have been much better with Tatum on the floor (plus 12 points per 100 possessions) than they’ve been with him off the floor (plus 2.9). Their loss to the Sixers on Christmas was their third defeat in a game in which Tatum had a positive plus-minus, matching their total from last season.
When you adjust for the league-average drop in efficiency, the Celtics’ drop-off in non-Tatum minutes has been bigger on defense than it’s been on offense.
4. Porziņģis’s absence felt on defense (in the paint)
Despite the drop in ball movement and 3-point percentage, the Celtics still have the league’s third-ranked offense. Regarding where they rank, they’ve seen a bigger drop-off on defense, where they’re eighth through Thursday.
Slippage has come in the paint, where the Celtics have allowed 50 points per 100 possessions, up from 48.4 last season. They’ve seen relatively big jumps in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint and the percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come there.
The increase in attempts is linked to the Celtics limiting their opponents’ attempts from 3-point range. But teams can also have more success attacking 38-year-old Al Horford in the pick-and-roll than they’ve had in the past …
The overall drop-off in paint defense can also be attributed to Kristaps Porziņģis having played in just 11 of the Celtics’ 30 games thus far. As a percentage of the Celtics’ total minutes, he’s played about half as much as he did last season (21% vs. 43%).
The Celtics’ paint defense has been much better with one of the league’s best rim protectors on the floor…
Celtics’ paint defense, the last two seasons
| Season/Porziņģis on/off | FGM | FGA | FG% | Rank | %FGA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 1,956 | 3,585 | 54.6% | 2 | 48% | 4 |
| 2024-25 | 751 | 1,349 | 55.7% | 10 | 50% | 26 |
| – Porzingis on floor | 141 | 266 | 53.0% | 46% | ||
| – Porzingis off floor | 610 | 1,083 | 56.3% | 51% |
%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts
Overall, the Celtics’ defense has been a little worse with Porziņģis on the floor, but that’s been about numbers on the perimeter: 3-point percentage and turnover rate.
We can expect the defense to improve as the season goes on. At this point, Boston has played only five of its 23 scheduled games against the other nine teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively.
They’ll play two more this weekend, hosting the 10th-ranked Pacers for a two-game series that begins on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV).
In addition to being a test of their defense, this matchup could also spark some memories about how relentless the Celtics were in attacking weak defenders as they swept the Eastern Conference Finals seven months ago.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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