The Rockies are headed to another last place finish. Overall, the only sources of intrigue are how active they’ll be as deadline sellers and whether they’ll place below the Marlins as the worst team in the National League. That doesn’t negate the possibility of individual development. For a second straight year, Colorado looks like they’ve developed a regular in the outfield amidst a generally rough season.
Last season’s success story was fourth-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher Nolan Jones. While his follow-up has not gone as planned, Colorado has gotten much better production out of another of his second-year outfield mates. Brenton Doyle seems to be turning the corner from an all-glove center fielder to a balanced, above-average everyday player.
One could argue that Doyle had a successful rookie season in his own right. It didn’t match up to Jones’ debut campaign, but Doyle looked like one of the sport’s 5-10 best outfield defenders from the time he was called up. He posted eye-popping grades (+19 Defensive Runs Saved, 15 runs above average by Statcast measurement) in a little more than 1000 innings. He earned a well-deserved Gold Glove.
Stellar as Doyle was defensively, both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded him marginally above replacement in 2023. Among regulars, he was probably the least productive hitter in the majors. Doyle ranked last among 212 hitters (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .250 on-base percentage. His .203 average was sixth-worst and he was in the bottom-10 in slugging percentage as well.
Unlike other players with similar rate stats, Doyle played half his games at Coors Field. The park-adjusted wRC+ metric rated Doyle 57 percentage points below league average offensively. That was worst in the majors among regulars by a wide margin. Tim Anderson was next closest at 40 points below average.
The Rockies had reason to believe Doyle would take a step forward offensively. He went to Division II Shepherd University. Doyle certainly wasn’t facing many professional-caliber arms at that level. He was nevertheless a generally productive minor league hitter, albeit with significant strikeout issues. Doyle is a good athlete who drew praise from prospect evaluators for plus or better raw power. His approach and pure hit tool have always been the biggest concerns, but he had the kind of profile that could lead a team to believe he’d blossom later than most players.
Doyle seems to have done just that in his age-26 season, likely progressing even beyond Colorado’s expectations. He heads into the season’s unofficial second half with a .276/.343/.471 slash line across 377 plate appearances. His 15 homers are already five more than he managed over 431 trips to the plate last season. Doyle hasn’t merely improved from one of the league’s worst hitters to a competent option in the bottom third of a lineup. His offense has jumped from the bottom of the league to better than average. Bud Black gave him some run at the top of order last month and had him in the middle third of the lineup going into the All-Star Break.
An improved process is arguably even more encouraging than the results themselves are. Doyle hasn’t simply ridden a streak of batted ball luck to good numbers. His .338 average on balls in play is .043 points higher than last year’s mark, but it’s not a number that screams for regression. Doyle is an elite runner who hits the ball fairly hard and plays in the sport’s biggest home park. He should be able to maintain a higher-than-average BABIP.
The much bigger driver has been Doyle’s improved strike zone discipline. The righty hitter has both become more selective and taken a massive step forward with his contact skills. As a rookie, Doyle made contact 79% of the time he swung at a pitch inside the strike zone, a bottom-20 mark in the majors. He’s north of 86% this year, slightly higher than the 85.3% league average. Doyle has dramatically improved his contact rates against breaking stuff and is chasing pitches off the plate less often than he did a year ago.
That translates to a vastly improved strikeout and walk profile. After going down on strikes an untenable 35% of the time last season, he’s punching out at a much more passable 24.9% rate. His walks are up from 5.1% to a decent 8.8% mark. No one would confuse Doyle for Juan Soto, but average strike zone numbers are more than sufficient. There’s never been much question about Doyle’s power or athleticism. He’s a fantastic defender. If he can maintain even a fringe-average hit tool, he has an All-Star ceiling.
As is the case with most Rockies players, Doyle has pronounced home/road splits. He has done an inordinate amount of his offensive damage at Coors Field. He’s hitting .346/.407/.588 with a 20.8% strikeout rate over 173 plate appearances at home. Doyle’s road production (.217/.289/.372 with a 28.4% strikeout percentage across 204 PAs) is mediocre. His road numbers are at least partially weighed down by a modest .267 BABIP, though, and his strikeout and walk profile has improved no matter the setting.
With regard to pitcher handedness, Doyle has been above-average against both lefties (.289/.359/.470) and righties (.272/.338/.472). His walk rate is steady regardless of platoon matchups, though he’s been more strikeout prone against righties (26.7%, compared to 19.6% versus southpaws). Doyle has also hit for more power against right-handers, however, which has helped to mitigate some of the extra swings and misses. Any way you slice it, he’s been a quality hitter regardless of opponent.
Whether Doyle can maintain or build off his early-season promise is one of the biggest second half storylines in Colorado. The Rox may not have much to play for as a team, but they’re looking for players to establish themselves. Colorado has Ezequiel Tovar locked in at shortstop and can keep Ryan McMahon at the hot corner for three more seasons. Doyle is in his first full MLB campaign and can be controlled for five years after this one. He has shown the talent to join Tovar, McMahon and hopefully Jones as part of the position player core. Maintaining this newfound approach would only increase the organization’s confidence that Doyle fits with that group.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Before reading the article I already know this is about Charles Condon III
Update: Who is Brent Doyle
You don’t have to be Sir Arthur Conan Doyle to figure out that the young man from Shepherd University is all-star caliber.
I am not sure whether Condon will play 1B, DH, 3B, or corner outfield, but I am sure that Charlie can hit.
imagine the future this team could have if they even traded half of story, arenado, gray, marquez, senzatela at or near peak value or had never signed kris bryant’s contract, aka realized they were a rebuilding team who desperately needed(needs) to add talented pitchers to the system from organizations who do good work with their pitchers, and learn a thing or two from them.
ottavino, diaz, lemahieu, cron, bard, estevez, hampson all couldve been cashed in on, quantrill and rodgers, mcmahon, diaz and stallings if they can, beeks, mears, whoever else they can convince a team to take from the bullpen. the team has little to no identity or future outlook
Hey, at least they still have The Gomber.
But that would require a competent Front Office and ownership that aren’t delusional
Doyle Rules. Plain and Simple.
Love the Always Sunny reference! Doyle is a baller, he should continue to improve for a bit.
That would be a “Billy Madison” reference
I guess it’s both but I never correlated it! Nice
Was it an Always Sunny reference or a Billy Madison reference?
I’ve got a feeling his whole family is going down.
34-63
I don’t think they have found any answers yet
The Rockies have a team FIP of 4.81 and a team ERA of 5.61. That’s probably the biggest gap in all of baseball. They need better defensive corner outfielders and a legit 1b. Doyle has been big for them but you need 3 good defensive outfielders in that ballpark.
They have the biggest gaps in baseball by far. You are trying to use a stat that eliminates using balls hit into those gaps. Maybe you should realize some stats are flawed especially in certain ballparks and realize it isn’t because you don’t have three supersonic outfielders playing defense. Meanwhile Doyle is considered one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball so it probably is the pitchers and not the fielding behind them.
Their corner outfielders are really poor defenders. In a park like that you need above average defensive outfielders and their corner guys are very much below average.
What do you think their FIP would be if they had the best corner outfielder in the game? 4.75?
The FIP wouldn’t change the ERA would. I was explaining why there is such a large gap in the ERA and FIP.
Jordan Beck was very good defensively until he left with a broken wrist.
On a great defensive play assuming he hits he could be one
Their staff is nothing short of awful. Three Doyles in the OF couldn’t save them.
4.81 FIP isn’t great either. Sure there might be some suspect defense but their staff is full of pitch to contact guys who always get lit up, comes with the territory. Like when people say a pitcher has a high babip, well sometimes it’s luck but sometimes they’re throwing it over the plate a ton.
4.81 isn’t great but it’s ok for that ballpark. The difference in FIP and ERA is huge it makes the pitching look worse than it actually is and that is my point.
BABIP and FIP are 2 entirely different things. I live on Colorado I am telling you their 1b and corner oufield defense is a major problem. It’s perhaps the worst in the league and they play half their games in a park where outfield defense is especially important.
Bpita
“BABIP and FIP are 2 entirely different things”
They are definitely related.
But, first, I must say that I’m happy to see this discussion going on here.
Pitching in Colorado is tough – of course.
We know how the altitude increases homeruns. Less air = ball go far.
The discussion about the size of the OF and skill of the defense contributing to BABIP is good.
But the altitude plays a factor before that too.
Less dense air effects how the pitches move. They move less. There’s less air for the seems/spin to interact with which leads to straighter pitches. Those pitches are, thus, easier to hit. So, fewer K’s and higher EV’s.
A nightmare for pitchers. Pitches don’t move. They get hit harder. They move faster through the air. More OF to defend and easier to get HR’s.
At first glance it makes sense to get high K pitchers in Coors. Batted balls are hard to turn into outs – so limit them. Try and strike everyone out. But, that’s harder in Coors than any other stadium.
Somewhere above “pitch to contact” pitchers were mentioned. I haven’t looked into it for this current group, but there’s also going to be a home/road split in that.
Rockies might have realized that pitchers who rely on K’s don’t really work in Coors. That part of their arsenal is diminished.
Long-winded way way of saying that in Coors FIP will be high due to more HR’s allowed and fewer K’s. But FIP assumes neutral damage on batted balls. That’s not true in Coors. It’s above average damage when a ball gets hit. FIPn likely understates expected runs allowed for Coors pitchers. That they are beating it, and handily, is interesting.
Maybe they figured something out. Or maybe it’s luck. Or, as is often the case, some of both.
I went back for 10 years and every single year the Rockies ERA is higher than their FIP. Now .8 is unusually high it would be the highest difference over the last decade. But still every single year their ERA was higher. That’s not a coincidence.
Bpita
“But still every single year their ERA was higher. That’s not a coincidence.”
As I just said, it’s not a coincidence at all
“FIP assumes neutral damage on batted balls. That’s not true in Coors. It’s above average damage when a ball gets hit. FIPn likely understates expected runs allowed for Coors pitchers. ”
It’s true every year since their inception
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
Except for 2007 when their ERA was .2 lower than their FIP
And the .8 difference is the largest in their history.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
The average had been .36. The lows were -.2 to .16 in the early 2000’s.
Interestingly, since they began in 1993 their ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- are all roughly league average at around 104
That they have a reputation as being terrible at finding pitchers is unwarranted and shows 1) the importance of using adjusted stats and 2) people underestimate the effect of Coors on pitching
The Rockies need to realize this and go back to getting an above average lineup and just try to get league average pitching. They will never lead the league in pitching and need to outscore their opponents like they did with Galaraga, Walker, Castillo and Bichette. Their stadium was packed and they were exciting. Should have never changed that blueprint for that team and their unique situation.
Mets
Maybe they just need to get the just combination of hitting, pitching, defense and baserunning they can. Like every other team.
“They will never lead the league in pitching”
The Rockies certainly could lead the league in pitching. If you took the best staff in baseball and put them on the Rockies, they’d still be the best staff, no?
Coors just highlights the imperfectness of our pitching measures.
“need to outscore their opponents ”
Every team needs to outscore their opponents
”
Should have never changed that blueprint for that team and their unique situation.”
Here’s something that will blow some minds
In addition to having been a roughly average pitching team since their inception, the Rockies have been a terrible offensive team.
They have never been a league average hitting team. Not once in their history.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
Their “career” wRC+ is just 88.
The Rockies have been getting pitching. They need to get hitters
wRC+ of 112 is pretty good, especially given it’s adjusted the ballpark factor of Coors. Nice to see some positive news coming out of Denver. Let’s hope he can keep it up and be at least a above average ball player for years to come.
Very good and informative article. Keep ’em coming!
Agreed
Still some work to be done – almost no mention of adjusted stats in an article about a Rockies player – but overall some interesting information
Rockies fans were due for a positive article. Glad to hear something is going right.
I am a Cardinals fan as you know but I live in Denver so follow the Rockies a bit. Things are getting better. Their young guys are playing well like this Doyle guy that’s mentioned here. Just got Condon in the draft. Things are looking better still some problems but better.
I think they need a whole new approach to pitching. It doesn’t make sense to keep doing what everybody else is doing when clearly that doesn’t work. Their circumstance is unique, their approach needs to be unique.
Yeah I agree. I think they are drafting more pitching and that’s a start. But they need a plan that is unique and specific to them like you said.
Don, we hear the critique of the Rockies approach to pitching yet we never hear solutions. We have 30 years of experience & info. Plenty of baseball minds that love solving complex situations like this. I’ve never heard anyone outside the org bring forth anything unique. No data substantiated plans. Where are these solutions?
Most of what’s posted on here is non stop vomiting on the Rockies front office. The players that have been mentioned that they should have traded would not have brought back organizational changing talent.
More middle of the road prospects that the MLBTR community would use to trash the organization when they didn’t pan out.
A lot of the criticism of the Rockies the last few years is earned and deserved. Not all of it but a lot of it. I don’t think signing Bryant was as bad as people pretend it was. But when you don’t trade Trevor Story and he publicly asks why not post trade deadline your organization looks stupid.
Ok, that’s fair. I have actually posted this before, but I’ll say it again.
The Rockies need to lean into strikeouts like no other organization in the history of baseball. I know, I know, every organization wants strikeouts. But most try to get those strikeouts through traditional means. The Rockies need to break the mold. No more traditional starters. Three inning, max-effort outings become the norm. Identify failed starters who were effective the first time through the order and collect them. The Rays introduced baseball to the “opener”. The Rockies should expand on the concept.
Blackpink emphasized the need for athletic defenders and that is true. But the Rockies need to emphasize missing bats more than any organization in the history of baseball.
To add on to what you are saying strikeouts without the walks. Guys who walk a ton will pay for it in that park. And yes all teams want pitchers who strike out a lot of guys and don’t walk many but they need them more than most teams.
For sure. They need to limit baserunners more than anyone. The conditions that allow flyballs to carry for homeruns also allow fastballs to carry. They need to use science to their advantage instead of trying to ignore it. Ubaldo Jimenez showed he way. They just need to repeat it without asking one pitcher to do it for nine innings.
Don, it would be hard to argue with a philosophy of high strikeout pitchers. I’m not sure how it would be implemented as you’ve presented, but just the fact you’ve mentioned a possible solution puts you into the 99th percentile on here. Getting someone to provide a positive post on the Rockies is as rare as hen’s teeth.
They’ve implemented a new pitching lab. Though I don’t know what that entails, I’ll assume it uses the same technology other clubs use. You would think Rockies fans would be encouraged about it. Maybe check in to see how it’s helping our organizational pitching.
I’ve been on this train with you Don that the Rockies need to throw conventional pitching philosophy out the window to be the team they need to be to have a chance to compete in the nl west. Because there’s a lot of hope and promise right now, but let’s be real here it’s fools gold till they figure this problem out.
I think where we differ is you take a more on demand value play vs me where I think playing a constant musical chair game throughout the entire 40 man/organization is the more appropriate approach and either abandoning the development/time/resources completely or focusing all of that back into one single direction.
Every year in free agency we have two things that remain prevalent as clear as death and taxes in the lack of Starting pitching to surpass market demand and a surplus of middle relief back end arms that are readily available that has a nearly non existent demand to begin with.
These guys don’t need to be strikeout guys nor do they need to be specialists. They simple need to be capable of pitching bulk innings if needed but in no greater amount than 4. to remain fresh enough to maintain rostering till injury and you plug and play off the wire or or organizational depth. This way you can cap a guy around 10-16 innings a week., play the next man up and kind of just deal with it..
I do think though for salary purposes a failed starter is going to want more to not only pitch in relief, but pitch in Colorado to begin with. So that’s really a hard sell. and why I feel the plug and play/back end arms are the easier route..
Or you could go the route of offering an entire pitching staff in fa the opportunity to close. Which may intrigue more inept starters who are looking at a chance to revitalize their careers knowing they could potentially market themselves both ways showcasing they can still hit an innings threshold yet have a the ability to close out situations.
Very interested in how numbers look on that through arb have no idea where to begin there, but it’s offering these pitchers a chance to be two way pitchers essentially and I think the idea of taking a low end deal, minimal waiver hit or mli with the opportunity to re represent yourself as a 10 mil sp/cp gives the player a lot of up side in a toxic situation.
At this point you have to work with what you have vs what you don’t and play the hand dealt before they try reinventing the wheel here, but you have to do something to off set the offensive flaws you have today and overcome the nonsense that is the Rockies pitching staff at present and going forward to have a chance to save grace next to the offense as is and coming. Specifically looking at a guy like Calaz today. Who does not get the prospect love he should be getting. Really excited for his outlook and hoping the Rockies as a whole don’t drop the ball on him like they did with tapia.
Loved watching Doyle at Shepard. Happy for his success!
Home/Road splits should still be a concern. He is young and still has time to develop.
Wow, no kidding. About half the MLB teams would love to have Doyle over their CF.
What is this player-friendly tripe? Doyle is not a trade candidate so why would MLBTR devote resources to writing a pandering article about him unless they’re being paid by his agent? Front offices read this site. Making him look good isn’t ethical.
Furthermore, “stellar as Doyle was” is not proper English. You can’t just leave “as” out at the start of the sentence. It’s not optional and neither is correct grammar.