Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is forecast to be at mainly background. However, a weak and glancing coronal mass ejection (CME) may arrive during Tuesday morning. This could bring a slight enhancement to the aurora, perhaps leading to some visibility as far south as northern Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is forecast to be at mainly background. However, a weak and glancing coronal mass ejection (CME) may arrive during Tuesday morning. This could bring a slight enhancement to the aurora, perhaps leading to some increased visibility across Antarctica.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate Solar Activity likely. Chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals Day 2 (27 Aug) from coronal mass ejection glancing blow.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity was Moderate over the past 24hrs, with a single moderate class flare, peaking at M1.4 at 26/1141UTC from a large region in the southwest. This region has been growing and includes a very small mixed polarity spot. A large spot region in the southwest has continued to remain stable, becoming largely inactive. A region approaching south-centre disc has seen some recent growth on its intermediate spots, whilst other spots on the disc have showed signs of decay. Two new regions have been observed rotating around the eastern limb.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow wind conditions dominated. Solar wind speed was at background, initially around 350km/s but has declined to current levels of 300km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Further Moderate class flares are expected with a slight chance of isolated Strong flares.
Solar Wind /Geomagnetic Activity: A CME from the eruption off the northwest disc just after 23/0100UTC has been assessed as passing mainly ahead of Earth, but with a glancing impact likely early Day 2 (27 Aug). Additionally, an unnumbered coronal hole in centre disc may cause some slight enhancement to the solar wind later on Day 3 or early Day 4 (28-29 Aug).
Mainly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected with occasional of Unsettled spells, primarily due to the aforementioned glancing CME or coronal hole effects. There is a chance of Active to G1 Minor Storm if the CME glance occurs, most likely Day 2 (27 Aug).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at background, but there is a chance of this rising in response to any notable flares, especially from the regions in the western disc. This gives a slight chance of exceeding the S1 Minor Solar Radiation Storm level.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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