Search Results (2,763)

Rainstorms and blizzards are common extreme weather events occurring in the eastern Tibet region. Their complex dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms present challenges for regional meteorological research and forecasting. Based on station observation data and ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis datasets, a diagnostic analysis of the heavy rain and snow event in eastern Tibet from 24 to 27 October 2022 was conducted. The results indicate that (1) the influence of the cloud systems surrounding the Bay of Bengal storm “Sitrang” was a significant factor contributing to the occurrence of this heavy rain and snow weather. (2) Sustained stability of the southern branch trough and the western Pacific subtropical high favored the establishment and maintenance of the mid-level jet stream ahead of the storm. Storm “Sitrang” transported warm and moist air to eastern Tibet through the southwest mid-level jet stream, providing favorable moisture, dynamic, and thermal conditions for the heavy rain and snow. (3) Most importantly, symmetrical instability generated by the inclined motion of the storm’s warm and moist air emerged as the decisive mechanism driving the occurrence and development of the heavy rain and snow. Full article

This study analyzes the clean energy infrastructure resilience on Santa Cruz Island, located in the Galapagos archipelago, facing identified multi-natural hazard scenarios such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and extreme weather events. Although Santa Cruz Island has a relatively modern energy infrastructure, its geographic location and lack of clear emergency management actions would significantly affect its performance. Risk assessment components, such as exposure and vulnerability, are also analyzed, highlighting the need for strategic interventions to ensure the continuity of energy supply and other essential services. Proved methodologies are used to propose action plans, including structural and non-structural solutions and simulations based on disaster scenarios. As a result, a series of strategies are revealed to strengthen the response and adaptation capacity of both critical infrastructure and the local community. These strategies hold the potential to ensure the island’s long-term energy security and sustainability, reducing its carbon footprint and instilling hope for a resilient future. Full article

The cloud system characteristics within satellite cloud imagery play a crucial role in the meteorological operational analysis of cold fronts, and integrating satellite cloud imagery into automated frontal identification schemes can provide valuable insights for accurately determining the position and morphology of cold fronts. This study introduces Cloud-DETR, a deep learning identification method that uses the DETR model with satellite cloud imagery, to identify cold fronts from extensive datasets. In the Cloud-DETR method, preprocessed satellite cloud imagery is used to generate training images, which are then put into the DETR model for cold front identification, achieving excellent results. The alignment between the Cloud-DETR cold fronts and weather systems during continuous periods and extreme weather events is assessed. The Cloud-DETR method exhibits high accuracy in both the position and morphology of cold fronts, ensuring stable identification performance. The high matching rate between the Cloud-DETR cold fronts and the manually identified ones in the test set, image dataset and labels from 2017 is verified. This indicates that the Cloud-DETR method can provide an accurate cold fronts dataset. The cold fronts dataset from 2005 to 2023 was obtained using the Cloud-DETR method. It was found that over the past 18 years, the frequency of cold fronts displays distinct seasonal patterns, with the highest occurrences observed during winter, particularly along the mid-latitude storm tracks extending from the east coast of East Asia to the Northwest Pacific. The methodology and findings presented in this study could help advance further research on the characteristics of cold front cloud systems based on long-term datasets. Full article

Climate forecasting is essential for energy production, agricultural activities, transportation, and civil defense sectors, serving as a foundation for decision-making and risk management. This study addresses the challenge of accurately predicting extreme droughts in South America, a region highly vulnerable to climate variability. By employing a supervised neural network (NN) within a machine learning framework, we developed a methodology to forecast precipitation and subsequently calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for predicting drought conditions across the continent. The proposed model was trained with precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) for the period 1983–2023. It provided monthly drought forecasts, which were validated against observational data and compared with predictions from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Key findings indicate the neural network’s ability to capture complex precipitation patterns and predict drought conditions. The model’s architecture effectively integrates precipitation data, demonstrating superior performance metrics compared to traditional approaches like the NMME. This study reinforces the relevance of using machine learning algorithms as a robust tool for drought prediction, providing critical information that can assist in decision-making for sustainable water resource management. Full article

Risk communication from the perspective of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), which assesses the extent to which climate change influences various extreme weather events, has significant potential for climate change communication due to its ability to make the phenomenon more relatable to citizens. This study examines the digital conversation generated following the wave of wildfires in Spain in 2022, which was declared the worst year of the 21st century in terms of hectares burned. By using the Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology, 145,081 tweets were analyzed to construct a mention network, capturing the digital clusters formed around this discussion and highlighting the predominant tones in the debate. The findings reveal that the conversation predominantly adopted a tone of outrage and assigned responsibility. This research study offers a renewed perspective on risk communication, highlighting significant challenges faced by environmental activism on social media and underscoring the need to improve communication strategies to increase awareness and mobilization around climate change. Full article

Climate change is a global challenge that impacts rangeland and pastureland landscapes by inducing shifts in temperature variability, precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. These changes alter soil and plant conditions, reducing forage availability and chemical composition and leading to nutritional stress in cattle. This stress occurs when animals lack adequate water and feed sources or when these resources are insufficient in quantity, composition, or nutrient balance. Several strategies are essential to address these impacts. Genetic selection, epigenetic biomarkers, and exploration of epigenetic memories present promising avenues for enhancing the resilience of cattle populations and improving adaptation to environmental stresses. Remote sensing and GIS technologies assist in locating wet spots to establish islands of plant diversity and high forage quality for grazing amid ongoing climate change challenges. Establishing islands of functional plant diversity improves forage quality, reduces carbon and nitrogen footprints, and provides essential nutrients and bioactives, thus enhancing cattle health, welfare, and productivity. Real-time GPS collars coupled with accelerometers provide detailed data on cattle movement and activity, aiding livestock nutrition management while mitigating heat stress. Integrating these strategies may offer significant advantages to animals facing a changing world while securing the future of livestock production and the global food system. Full article

Glazed tiles are a quintessential ceramic creation applied in architectural systems, with Chinese pagodas serving as emblematic symbols that embody the design philosophy and diverse cultural beliefs of construction. Despite enduring wars, extreme weather, and the passage of millennia, glazed pagodas have withstood the test of time. The erosion of glazed components by wind and rain has not diminished their solemnity but has added a profound historical depth, making these surviving ancient-glazed components even more precious. This study examines the structural and stylistic features of Chinese glazed pagodas, exploring the extent of glazed component coverage. Using quantitative methods, the study zones, calculates, and classifies Chinese glazed pagodas, further elucidating their evolution and development through various historical periods. Additionally, based on a comprehensive survey of Chinese glazed pagodas, the study integrates theories from archaeology, art history, and architecture to deeply analyze their distribution areas, chronological spans, and cultural contexts, offering new perspectives for the systematic classification of Chinese glazed pagodas. Full article

Urban environments experience amplified thermal stress due to the climate change, leading to increased health risks during extreme temperature events. Existing numerical weather prediction systems often lack the spatial resolution required to capture this phenomenon. This study assesses the efficacy of a coupled modeling system, the numerical weather prediction AROME model and the land-surface model SURFace EXternalisée in a stand alone mode (SURFEX-SA), in forecasting air temperatures at high resolutions (2.5km to 100m) across four Austrian cities (Vienna, Linz, Klagenfurt and Innsbruck). The system is updated with the, according to the author’s knowledge, most accurate land use and land cover input to evaluate the added value of incorporating detailed urban environmental representations. The analysis focuses on the years 2019, 2023, and 2024, examining both summer and winter seasons. SURFEX-SA demonstrates improved performance in specific scenarios, particularly during nighttime in rural and suburban areas during the warmer season. By comprehensively analyzing this prediction system with operational and citizen weather stations in a deterministic and probabilistic mode across several time periods and various skill scores, the findings of this study will enable readers to determine whether high-resolution forecasts are necessary in specific use cases. Full article

Object detection powered by deep learning is extensively utilized across diverse sectors, yielding substantial outcomes. However, adverse weather conditions such as rain, snow, and haze interfere with images, leading to a decline in quality and making it extremely challenging for existing methods to detect images captured in such environments. In response to the problem, our research put forth a detection approach grounded in the YOLOv8 model, which we named YOLOv8-STE. Specifically, we introduced a new detection module, ST, on the basis of YOLOv8, which integrates global information step-by-step through window movement while capturing local details. This is particularly important in adverse weather conditions and effectively enhances detection accuracy. Additionally, an EMA mechanism was incorporated into the neck network, which reduced computational burdens through streamlined operations and enriched the original features, making them more hierarchical, thus improving detection stability and generalization. Finally, soft-NMS was used to replace the traditional non-maximum suppression method. Experimental results indicate that our proposed YOLOv8-STE demonstrates excellent performance under adverse weather conditions. Compared to the baseline model YOLOv8, it exhibits superior results on the RTTS dataset, providing a more efficient method for object detection in adverse weather. Full article

Radar echo extrapolation by ground-based remote sensing is essential for weather prediction and flight guiding. Existing radar echo extrapolation methods can hardly capture complex spatiotemporal features, resulting in the low accuracy of predictions, and, therefore, severely restrict their use in extreme weather situations. A deep learning method was recently applied for extrapolating radar echoes; however, its accuracy declines too quickly over a short time. In this study, we introduce a solution: Residual Transformer and Unet (ResTUnet), a novel model that improves prediction accuracy and exhibits good stability with a slow rate of accuracy decline. This presented Rest-Net model is designed to solve the issue of declining prediction accuracy by integrating a 1*1 convolution to diminish the neural network parameters. We constructed an observed dataset by Zhengzhou East Airport radar observation from July 2022 to August 2022 and performed 90 min experiments comprising five aspects, including extrapolation images, the Probability of Detection (POD) index, the Critical Success Index (CSI), the False Alarm Rate (FAR) index, and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) index. The experimental results show that the ResTUnet model improved the CSI, HSS index, and the POD index by 17.20%, 11.97%, and 11.35%, compared to current models, including Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (convLSTM), the Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (convGRU), the Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (TrajGRU), and the improved recurrent network for video predictive learning, the Predictive Recurrent Neural Network++ (predRNN++). In addition, the mean squared error of the ResTUnet model remains stable at 15% between 0 and 60 min and starts to increase after 60–90 min, which is 12% better than the current models. This enhancement in prediction accuracy has practical applications in meteorological services and decision making. Full article

Inland water transportation is regarded as a crucial component of global trade, yet its reliability has been increasingly challenged by uncertainties such as extreme weather, port congestion, and geopolitical tensions. Although substantial research has focused on the structural characteristics of inland water transportation networks, the dynamic responses of these networks to disruptions remain insufficiently explored. This gap in understanding is critical for enhancing the resilience of global transportation systems as trade volumes grow and risks intensify. In this study, percolation theory was applied to evaluate the reliability of the Yangtze River transportation network. Ship voyage data from 2019 were used to construct a complex network model, and simulations of node removal were performed to identify key vulnerabilities within the network. The results showed that the failure of specific nodes significantly impacts the network’s connectivity, suggesting which nodes should be prioritized for protection. This research offers a dynamic framework for the assessment of inland water transportation network reliability and provides new insights that could guide policy decisions to improve the resilience of critical waterway systems. By identifying potential points of failure, this study contributes to the development of a more robust global trade infrastructure. Full article

The retrieval of global significant wave height (SWH) data is crucial for maritime navigation, aquaculture safety, and oceanographic research. Leveraging the high temporal resolution and spatial coverage of Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) data, machine learning models have shown promise in SWH retrieval. However, existing models struggle with accuracy under high-SWH conditions and discard a significant number of such observations due to low quality, which limits their effectiveness in global SWH retrieval, particularly for monitoring tropical cyclone (TC) events. To address this, this study proposes a daily global SWH retrieval framework through the enhanced eXtreme Gradient Boosting model (XGBoost-SC), which incorporates Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching to introduce prior distribution information and reduce errors for SWH values exceeding 3 m. An enhanced loss function is employed to improve accuracy and mitigate the distribution bias in low-SWH retrieval induced by CDF matching. The results were tested over one million sample points and validated against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SWH product. With the help of CDF matching, XGBoost-SC outperformed all models, significantly reducing RMSE and bias while improving the retrieval capability for high SWHs. For SWH values between 3–6 m, the RMSE and bias were 0.94 m and −0.44 m, and for values above 6 m, they were 2.79 m and −2.0 m. The enhanced performance of XGBoost-SC for large SWHs was further confirmed in TC conditions over the Western North Pacific and in the Western Atlantic Ocean. This study provides a reference for large-scale SWH retrieval, particularly under TC conditions. Full article

Climate change is driving regime shifts across ecosystems, exposing species to novel challenges of extreme weather, altered disturbances, food web disruptions, and habitat loss. For disturbance-dependent species like the endangered piping plover (Charadrius melodus), these shifts present both opportunities and risks. While most piping plover populations show net growth following storm-driven habitat creation, similar gains have not been documented in the Eastern Canadian breeding unit. In September 2022, post-tropical cyclone Fiona caused record coastal changes in this region, prompting our study of population and nesting responses within the central subunit of Prince Edward Island (PEI). Using satellite imagery and machine learning tools, we mapped storm-induced change in open sand habitat on PEI and compared nest outcomes across habitat conditions from 2020 to 2023. Open sand areas increased by 9–12 months post-storm, primarily through landward beach expansion. However, the following breeding season showed no change in abundance, minimal use of new habitats, and mixed nest success. Across study years, backshore zones, pure sand habitats, and sandspits/sandbars had lower apparent nest success, while washover zones, sparsely vegetated areas, and wider beaches had higher success. Following PTC Fiona, nest success on terminal spits declined sharply, dropping from 45–55% of nests hatched in pre-storm years to just 5%, partly due to increased flooding. This suggests reduced suitability, possibly from storm-induced changes to beach elevation or slope. Further analyses incorporating geomorphological and ecological data are needed to determine whether the availability of suitable habitat is limiting population growth. These findings highlight the importance of conserving and replicating critical habitat features to support piping plover recovery in vulnerable areas. Full article

With the increasing and intensifying effects of global climate change and the rapid development of higher education, energy and resource consumption at university campuses has been rising drastically. This shift has been worsened by campuses’ expanded role in addressing extreme weather hazards and taking on additional cultural and community functions. This article carries out a comprehensive literature review of the low-carbon measures and resilient behaviors implemented on university campuses based on publications published in two major databases, the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science (WOS). Results show that: (1) most existing studies only focus on campus carbon emission reduction from a single perspective, without considering the correlation between carbon emissions in different dimensions on campuses and without analyzing the causes of excessive campus carbon emissions from the perspective of the built environment; (2) current studies have not constructed an assessment system for campus carbon resilience and lack the tools and methods for assessment. After summarizing and analyzing, this study proposes the concept of campus “carbon resilience”, which refers to the ability of campuses to cope with the risks of disasters and uncertainties caused by excessive carbon emissions. The research framework of this study is divided into three parts: connotative characteristics, influencing factors, and optimization strategy. Following this framework, the concept and critical features of campus carbon resilience “carbon minus resilience”, “carbon saving resilience”, “carbon reduction resilience”, and “carbon sequestration resilience” are analyzed and outlined. Next, an integrated impact factor system for campus carbon resilience is proposed. This system incorporates aspects such as land utilization, building operation, landscape creation, and energy regeneration from the perspective of the built environment. Finally, with the core objective of effectively reducing the dynamic range of carbon emissions when dealing with critical disturbances and improving the adaptability and resilience of campuses to cope with excessive carbon emissions, this study proposes an optimization strategy of “setting development goals–establishing an evaluation system–proposing improvement strategies–dynamic feedback and adjustment” to provide ideas and theoretical guidance for responding to university campus carbon risk and planning carbon resilience. Full article

Human core and skin temperature (T_cr and T_sk) are crucial indicators of human health and are commonly utilized in diagnosing various types of diseases. This study presents a deep learning model that combines a long-term series forecasting method with transfer learning techniques, capable of making precise, personalized predictions of T_cr and T_sk in high-temperature environments with only a small corpus of actual training data. To practically validate the model, field experiments were conducted in complex environments, and a thorough analysis of the effects of three diverse training strategies on the overall performance of the model was performed. The comparative analysis revealed that the optimized training method significantly improved prediction accuracy for forecasts extending up to 10 min into the future. Specifically, the approach of pretraining the model on in-distribution samples followed by fine-tuning markedly outperformed other methods in terms of prediction accuracy, with a prediction error for T_cr within ±0.14 °C and T_{sk, mean} within ±0.46 °C. This study provides a viable approach for the precise, real-time prediction of T_cr and T_sk, offering substantial support for advancing early warning research of human thermal health. Full article