玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/90.5320.8759.683.5732.731.33N/A本月專案工程投入進度較去年增加。
2024/80.4418.42-3.553.0528.971.45N/A-
2024/70.37-43.07-27.122.6136.651.87N/A-
2024/60.65-24.8788.282.2459.51.60.08本月專案工程投入進度較去年增加。
2024/50.86822.8689.941.650.231.270.09本月專案工程投入進度較去年增加。
2024/40.09-70.67-55.230.7420.90.610.2本月專案工程投入進度較去年同期緩慢。
2024/30.3262.71133.80.6560.050.650.2本月專案工程投入較去年同期增加。
2024/20.244.8512.310.3322.771.710.08-
2024/10.13-90.2441.930.1341.932.190.06-
2023/121.38105.64-16.655.1912.752.50.05-
2023/110.6750.9617.833.8129.291.450.08-
2023/100.4434.979.973.1432.041.230.1-
2023/90.33-26.98-20.762.6936.561.280.1-
2023/80.45-10.5222.822.3651.881.30.1本月專案工程投入較去年同期增加。
2023/70.547.08142.531.9160.871.30.1本月專案工程出貨較去年同期增加
2023/60.34-24.233.421.4143.551.00.13-
2023/50.45117.5110.011.0647.150.80.16本月專案工程出貨較去年同期增加
2023/40.2153.1715.480.6120.50.520.25-
2023/30.14-21.8325.130.423.250.40.32-
2023/20.1783.0565.30.2722.331.920.07本月專案工程出貨較去年同期出貨增加所致
2023/10.09-94.27-17.110.09-17.112.320.06-
2022/121.66190.7355.824.628.982.630.05本月專案工程出貨較去年同期出貨增加所致
2022/110.5740.89-28.322.9517.591.390.09-
2022/100.4-2.7519.682.3838.941.190.11-
2022/90.4213.1747.111.9743.680.990.01-
2022/80.3776.6987.771.5642.790.830.01本月專案工程出貨較去年同期增加
2022/70.21-19.0852.131.1932.950.680.01本月專案工程出貨較去年同期增加
2022/60.2619.29129.690.9829.490.650.02111/6專案工程出貨較去年同期增加所致。
2022/50.2219.6100.030.7212.120.50.02本月專案工程出貨量較去年同期增加所致。
2022/40.1865.9692.580.51-5.480.390.03本月專案工程出貨較去年同期出貨增加所致
2022/30.113.25-52.460.33-26.130.330.03本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少所致。
2022/20.11-8.21-2.370.221.691.280.01-
2022/10.11-89.225.750.115.751.970.01-
2021/121.0633.72173.133.5742.82.20.0本月專案工程出貨較去年同期出貨增加所致
2021/110.79135.27190.992.518.761.420.01本月專案工程出貨較去年同期出貨增加所致
2021/100.3419.53156.391.71-6.860.820.01本月專案工程出貨較去年同期增加
2021/90.2844.452.831.37-19.480.610.02-
2021/80.243.15-18.71.09-23.770.440.02-
2021/70.1422.17-33.730.89-24.80.360.03-
2021/60.113.89-41.40.76-22.930.310.03-
2021/50.1115.1539.360.65-18.470.430.02-
2021/40.09-59.0351.510.54-24.730.430.02110/4專案工程出貨較去年同期增加所致。
2021/30.23112.03-5.660.44-31.940.440.02-
2021/20.11-0.56-22.440.22-47.420.610.02-
2021/10.11-72.18-60.170.11-60.170.770.01本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計出貨減少所致
2020/120.3942.46-14.642.5-46.90.790.01-
2020/110.27107.3-44.882.11-50.360.680.01本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計出貨減少所致
2020/100.13-52.05-37.271.84-51.080.650.02本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計出貨減少所致
2020/90.2714.214.751.7-51.90.720.01本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計出貨減少所致
2020/80.2416.685.581.43-56.740.640.02本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計出貨減少所致
2020/70.218.02-18.191.19-61.350.470.02本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少
2020/60.19147.1-37.180.98-65.210.330.03本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少
2020/50.0825.19-91.490.79-68.590.380.03本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少
2020/40.06-74.49-89.110.71-55.680.440.02本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少
2020/30.2474.32-64.90.65-37.540.650.02本月專案工程出貨較去年同期減少
2020/20.14-48.94-42.750.4115.570.870.01-
2020/10.27-40.37140.850.27140.851.220.01本年度累計專案工程出貨較去年度累計增加所致
2019/120.46-8.0-17.344.7122.841.160.01-
2019/110.5135.948.84.2529.610.0N/A-
2019/100.21-12.29-44.563.7532.960.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.132023/10.092022/10.112021/10.112020/10.27
2024/20.22023/20.172022/20.112021/20.112020/20.14
2024/30.322023/30.142022/30.112021/30.232020/30.24
2024/40.092023/40.212022/40.182021/40.092020/40.06
2024/50.862023/50.452022/50.222021/50.112020/50.08
2024/60.652023/60.342022/60.262021/60.112020/60.19
2024/70.372023/70.52022/70.212021/70.142020/70.21
2024/80.442023/80.452022/80.372021/80.22020/80.24
2024/90.532023/90.332022/90.422021/90.282020/90.27
N/AN/A2023/100.442022/100.42021/100.342020/100.13
N/AN/A2023/110.672022/110.572021/110.792020/110.27
N/AN/A2023/121.382022/121.662021/121.062020/120.39
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 39.27%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q2 (20)0.8290.7256.52
24Q1 (19)0.4313.16-8.51
23Q4 (18)0.38-9.5215.15
23Q3 (17)0.4282.6120.0
23Q2 (16)0.23-51.06-51.06
23Q1 (15)0.4742.4217.5
22Q4 (14)0.33-5.71175.0
22Q3 (13)0.35-25.53-20.45
22Q2 (12)0.4717.567.86
22Q1 (11)0.4233.33122.22
21Q4 (10)0.12-72.73-20.0
21Q3 (9)0.4457.14131.58
21Q2 (8)0.2855.5633.33
21Q1 (7)0.1820.012.5
20Q4 (6)0.15-21.0587.5
20Q3 (5)0.19-9.52-5.0
20Q2 (4)0.2131.250.0
20Q1 (3)0.16100.00.0
19Q4 (2)0.08-60.00.0
19Q3 (1)0.20.00.0

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