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Peaks coming into view?

  • Global energy markets found a tentative new balance in 2023, with natural gas prices coming down after skyrocketing in 2022 in Europe and other parts of the world, and with an increase of 2.1% in global energy demand, in line with the average rate in the two decades before 2020.
  • While a growing global population and higher incomes increase the need for energy services, energy demand growth slows to 0.7% per year from 2023 to 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), half the rate of the past decade. Most growth occurs in emerging market and developing economies. Efficiency gains and electrification lead to a slight decline in global energy demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and to a more significant fall in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario.
  • Strong electricity demand growth is a feature of all three scenarios, driven not just by economic growth but also by increasing electrification of end-uses, notably electric vehicles, and by rising demand for data centres. The share of electricity in final consumption increases from 20% today to 26% in 2035 in the STEPS, 29% in the APS and 36% in the NZE Scenario. Electricity demand in China rises particularly fast and is set to surpass the level of demand in all advanced economies combined by 2030.
  • Low-emissions sources, led by renewables, increase faster than electricity demand in all scenarios, thereby pushing down the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation. In 2023, renewables provided 30% of global electricity supply, while fossil fuels edged down to 60%, their lowest share in 50 years. By 2035, the share of solar PV and wind in electricity generation exceeds 40% globally in the STEPS, and by 2050 increases to nearly 60%. The share of nuclear power remains close to 10% in all scenarios.
  • Fossil fuels met 80% of global energy demand in 2023. As in the WEO-2023, our scenarios indicate that demand for oil, natural gas and coal is set to peak by 2030, though oil use for aviation and petrochemicals increases to 2050 in the STEPS, natural gas demand remains robust in emerging market and developing economies, and the decline in coal use is relatively gradual. Higher clean energy investment and a faster descent from these peaks is needed to fulfil announced pledges and move the world towards a net zero emissions pathway.
  • Seven clean energy technologies – solar PV, wind, nuclear, electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen and carbon capture – are key to affordable and secure transitions. Together they account for three-quarters of the CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 in the APS and the NZE Scenario, complemented by other renewables such as bioenergy and geothermal, and energy efficiency. Overcoming barriers to their deployment, including network and storage infrastructure, should be a priority worldwide.

Clean technologies are re-shaping the global energy mix

Despite growing needs for energy services, more efficiency and electrification are slowing the rate of global energy demand growth while the uptake of clean technologies like renewables and electric vehicles lead to a peak in demand for oil, natural gas and coal by 2030, though more clean energy investment is needed to accelerate CO2 emissions reductions.

Solar PV and wind generation

TWh

APS

23 221

STEPS

18 224

2035

2023

Electricity

consumption

in industry

TWh

3 948

481

15 527

Electric

car stock

Million units

2010

374

41

13 994

0

534

10 749

7 454

3 312

4 186

4 422

5 216

3 231

87

5 986

Natural gas

bcm

Coal

Million tonnes

4 453

3 492

99

99

82

Influences

Oil

mb/d

Clean energy investment

Billion USD (2023, MER)

APS

STEPS

2 775

1 835

666

3 934

2035

2023

2010

32 805

37 723

24 678

33 285

Emissions

Mt CO2

Graphic showing key energy indicators and investment in the STEPS and APS scenarios