Hi-- good question.  There is no one month where all of the sudden the accuracy gets considerably better, but generally the biggest rate of change is April-May-June, so there is an argument that we're over the hump, so to speak. With that said, the accuracy of our forecasts will increase the closer we get to the season that we are forecasting.  So every month helps with the fine tuning.  You're right that the forecasted intensity is not as strong as it was in previous months. Our latest ENSO strength forecast reflects those changes (this updates once a month w/ the discussion).