When can we say we are through the spring predictability barrier?  I have been following the SSTs plots the since early May. The trend has been for weaker La Nina temps thus for. The latest NMME Nino 3.4 plot for June seems to moving closer to the IRI/CPC blended model. The NMME ensemble mean had peak temps below -1. The last run that came out a couple of days ago has La Nina peaking above -1 or a weak event.