Recession shapes or recovery shapes are used by economists to describe different types of recessions and their subsequent recoveries. There is no specific academic theory or classification system for recession shapes; rather the terminology is used as an informal shorthand to characterize recessions and their recoveries. [1] The most commonly used terms are V-shaped (with variations of square-root shaped, and Nike-swoosh shaped), U-shaped, W-shaped (also known as a double-dip recession), and L-shaped recessions, with the COVID-19 pandemic leading to the K-shaped recession (also known as a two-stage recession). The names derive from the shape the economic data – particularly GDP – takes during the recession and recovery. [2]
In a V-shaped recession, the economy suffers a sharp but brief period of economic decline with a clearly defined trough, followed by a strong recovery. V-shapes are the normal shape for a recession, as the strength of the economic recovery is typically closely related to the severity of the preceding recession. [3]
An example of a V-shaped recession is the Recession of 1953 in the United States. In the early 1950s, the economy in the United States was growing, but because the Federal Reserve expected inflation it raised interest rates, tipping the economy into recession. In 1953, growth began to slow in the third quarter and the economy shrank by 2.4 percent. In the fourth quarter, the economy shrank by 6.2 percent, and in the first quarter of 1954, it shrank by 2 percent before returning to growth. By the fourth quarter of 1954, the economy was growing at an 8 percent pace, well above the trend. Thus GDP growth for this recession formed a V-shape.[ citation needed ]
During the 2020 recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, where the left side of the V was particularly severe, some commentators expected that the recovery might not follow a full V-shape (i.e. right side equal to the drop from the left side), but would look more like a square-root shape, or a Nike-swoosh shape (square-root but with an upward trending right arm). [4] By August 2020, the Federal Reserve was expecting a "bumpy" Nike-swoosh recovery. [5]
A U-shaped recession is longer than a V-shaped recession and has a less-clearly defined trough. GDP may shrink for several quarters, and only slowly return to trend growth. Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, says a U-shaped recession is like a bathtub: "You go in. You stay in. The sides are slippery. You know, maybe there's some bumpy stuff in the bottom, but you don't come out of the bathtub for a long time." [6]
The 1973–75 recession in the United States can be considered a U-shaped recession. In early 1973 the economy began to shrink and continued to decline or have very low growth for nearly two years. After bumping along the bottom, the economy climbed back to recovery in 1975. [1]
In a W-shaped recession (also known as a double-dip recession), the economy falls into recession, recovers with a short period of growth, then falls back into recession before finally recovering, giving a "down up down up" pattern resembling the letter W.
The early 1980s recession in the United States is cited as an example of a W-shaped recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research considers two recessions to have occurred in the early 1980s. [7] The economy fell into recession from January 1980 to July 1980, shrinking at an 8 percent annual rate from April to June 1980. The economy then entered a quick period of growth, and in the first three months of 1981 grew at an 8.4 percent annual rate. As the Federal Reserve under Paul Volcker raised interest rates to fight inflation, the economy dipped back into recession (hence, the "double-dip") from July 1981 to November 1982. The economy then entered a period of mostly robust growth for the rest of the decade.
The European debt crisis in the early-2010s is a more recent example of a W-shaped recession. A combination of government austerity, falling business investment, rising interest rates, global economic weakness, high energy prices, and weak consumer spending after the Great Recession of 2008–2009 tipped many Eurozone countries into a second recession from 2011 to 2013. Countries affected included Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Ireland, Germany and Cyprus. Greece, while part of the Eurozone, saw continuous economic contraction from 2007 to 2015, and thus does not fit the definition of a W-shaped recession, but rather an L-shaped recession. The United Kingdom is not a member of the Eurozone, but was a member of the European Union until 2020, and suffered a minor W-shaped recession when GDP contracted in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012.
An L-shaped recession or depression occurs when an economy has a severe recession and does not return to trend line growth [8] for many years, if ever. The steep decline, is followed by a flat line makes the shape of an L. This is the most severe of the different shapes of recession. Alternative terms for long periods of underperformance include "depression" and "lost decade"; compare also "malaise".
A classic example of an L-shaped recession occurred in Japan following the bursting of the Japanese asset price bubble in 1990. From the end of World War II throughout the 1980s, Japan's economy was growing robustly. In the late 1980s, a massive asset-price bubble developed in Japan. After the bubble burst the economy suffered from deflation, and experienced years of sluggish growth; never returning to the higher growth Japan experienced from 1950 to 1990. After the late-2000s recession in the United States followed a similar economic bubble (the United States housing bubble) some economists feared the U.S. economy could enter a prolonged period of low growth even after recovering from the recession. [9] By 2013, however, U.S. GDP growth rebounded, allaying fears of stagnation.
The Greek recession of 2007–2016 could be considered an example of an L-shaped recession, as Greek GDP growth in 2017 was merely 1.6%. Greece technically suffered through four separate, but compounding, periods of contractions over the nine-year period.
A K-shaped recession (or two-stage recession), is where parts of society experiences more of a V-shaped recession, while other parts of society experience a slower more protracted L-shaped recession (the shape of the K denoting the divergence in the recovery paths). [2]
The term arose from the economic recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic, where central banks had used exceptional monetary tools to generate asset bubbles that protected the wealthier segments of society (i.e. asset-owning), from the financial effects of the pandemic. [2] [10] K-shaped recoveries are controversial, and the 2020 K-shaped recovery in the United States led to levels of wealth inequality not seen since the 1920s. [11] [12] [13] In December 2020, Bloomberg News called 2020, "... a great year for Wall Street, but a bear market for humans". [14] In January 2021, Edward Luce of the Financial Times warned that Jerome Powell's explicit use of asset bubbles in creating a K-shaped recovery, and the resultant widening of wealth inequality, could lead to political and social instability in the United States, saying: "The majority of people are suffering amid a Great Gatsby–style boom at the top". [15]
The top 10 per cent of Americans own 84 percent of the country's shares. The top 1 percent own about half. The bottom half of Americans—the ones who have chiefly been on the frontline during the pandemic—say they own almost no stocks at all.
The economy of Grenada is largely tourism-based, small, and open economy. Over the past two decades, the main thrust of Grenada's economy has shifted from agriculture to services, with tourism serving as the leading foreign currency earning sector. The country's principal export crops are the spices nutmeg and mace. Other crops for export include cocoa, citrus fruits, bananas, cloves, and cinnamon. Manufacturing industries in Grenada operate mostly on a small scale, including production of beverages and other foodstuffs, textiles, and the assembly of electronic components for export.
The economy of Latvia is an open economy in Europe and is part of the European Single Market. Latvia is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) since 1999, a member of the European Union since 2004, a member of the Eurozone since 2014 and a member of the OECD since 2016. Latvia is ranked the 14th in the world by the Ease of Doing Business Index prepared by the World Bank Group. According to the Human Development Report 2011, Latvia belongs to the group of very high human development countries. Due to its geographical location, transit services are highly developed, along with timber and wood processing, agriculture and food products, and manufacturing of machinery and electronic devices.
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster.
The economy of Slovenia is a developed mixed economy. The country enjoys a high level of prosperity and stability as well as above-average GDP per capita by purchasing power parity at 92% of the EU average in 2022. The nominal GDP in 2023 is 68.108 billion USD, nominal GDP per capita (GDP/pc) in 2023 is USD 32,350. The highest GDP/pc is in central Slovenia, where the capital city Ljubljana is located. It is part of the Western Slovenia statistical region, which has a higher GDP/pc than eastern Slovenia.
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An economic depression is a period of carried long-term economic downturn that is the result of lowered economic activity in one major or more national economies. Economic depression may be related to one specific country where there is some economic crisis that has worsened but most often reflexes historically the American Great Depression and similar economic status that may be recognized as existing at some country, several countries or even in many countries. It is often understood in economics that economic crisis and the following recession that may be named economic depression are part of economic cycles where the slowdown of the economy follows the economic growth and vice versa. It is a result of more severe economic problems or a downturn than the recession itself, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of the normal business cycle of growing economy.
Household debt is the combined debt of all people in a household, including consumer debt and mortgage loans. A significant rise in the level of this debt coincides historically with many severe economic crises and was a cause of the U.S. and subsequent European economic crises of 2007–2012. Several economists have argued that lowering this debt is essential to economic recovery in the U.S. and selected Eurozone countries.
The Japanese asset price bubble was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991 in which real estate and stock market prices were greatly inflated. In early 1992, this price bubble burst and Japan's economy stagnated. The bubble was characterized by rapid acceleration of asset prices and overheated economic activity, as well as an uncontrolled money supply and credit expansion. More specifically, over-confidence and speculation regarding asset and stock prices were closely associated with excessive monetary easing policy at the time. Through the creation of economic policies that cultivated the marketability of assets, eased the access to credit, and encouraged speculation, the Japanese government started a prolonged and exacerbated Japanese asset price bubble.
The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline observed in national economies globally, i.e. a recession, that occurred in the late 2000s. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.
This article gives the timeline of the Great Recession, which hit many developed economies in the wake of the 2007–2008 financial crisis.
The European recession is part of the Great Recession that began in mid-2007. The crisis spread rapidly and affected much of the region, with several countries already in recession as of February 2009, and most others suffering marked economic setbacks. The global recession was first seen in Europe, as Ireland was the first country to fall into recession from Q2-Q3 2007 – followed by temporary growth in Q4 2007 – and then a two-year-long recession.
The Lost Decades are a lengthy period of economic stagnation in Japan precipitated by the asset price bubble's collapse beginning in 1990. The singular term Lost Decade originally referred to the 1990s, but the 2000s and the 2010s have been included by commentators as the phenomenon continued.
The 2008 Latvian financial crisis, which stemmed from the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, was a major economic and political crisis in Latvia. The crisis was generated when an easy credit market burst, resulting in an unemployment crisis, along with the bankruptcy of many companies. Since 2010, economic activity has recovered and Latvia's economic growth rate was the fastest among the EU member states in the first three quarters of 2012.
This is a history of the economy of Italy. For more information on historical, cultural, demographic and sociological developments in Italy, see the chronological era articles in the template to the right. For more information on specific political and governmental regimes in Italy, see the Kingdom and Fascist regime articles.
In the United States, the Great Recession was a severe financial crisis combined with a deep recession. While the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, it took many years for the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels of employment and output. This slow recovery was due in part to households and financial institutions paying off debts accumulated in the years preceding the crisis along with restrained government spending following initial stimulus efforts. It followed the bursting of the housing bubble, the housing market correction and subprime mortgage crisis.
An economic recovery is the phase of the business cycle following a recession. The overall business outlook for an industry looks optimistic during the economic recovery phase.
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The proposed long-term solutions for the Eurozone crisis address ways to deal with the European debt crisis that took place in the European Union from 2009 till the late 2010s, including risks to Eurozone country governments and the Euro.
Green recovery packages are proposed environmental, regulatory, and fiscal reforms to rebuild prosperity in the wake of an economic crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). They pertain to fiscal measures that intend to recover economic growth while also positively benefitting the environment, including measures for renewable energy, efficient energy use, nature-based solutions, sustainable transport, green innovation and green jobs, amongst others.
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