Rare events

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Rare or extreme events are events that occur with low frequency, and often refers to infrequent events that have a widespread effect and which might destabilize systems (for example, stock markets, [1] ocean wave intensity [2] or optical fibers [3] or society [4] ). Rare events encompass natural phenomena (major earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, asteroid impacts, solar flares, etc.), anthropogenic hazards (warfare and related forms of violent conflict, acts of terrorism, industrial accidents, financial and commodity market crashes, etc.), as well as phenomena for which natural and anthropogenic factors interact in complex ways (epidemic disease spread, global warming-related changes in climate and weather, etc.).

Contents

Overview

Rare or extreme events are discrete occurrences of infrequently observed events. Despite being statistically improbable, such events are plausible insofar as historical instances of the event (or a similar event) have been documented. [5] Scholarly and popular analyses of rare events often focus on those events that could be reasonably expected to have a substantial negative effect on a society—either economically [6] or in terms of human casualties [7] (typically, both). Examples of such events might include an 8.0+ Richter magnitude earthquake, a nuclear incident that kills thousands of people, or a 10%+ single-day change in the value of a stock market index. [8] [9] [10]

Modeling and analysis

Rare event modeling (REM) refers to efforts to characterize the statistical distribution parameters, generative processes, or dynamics that govern the occurrence of statistically rare events, including but not limited to highly influential natural or human-made catastrophes. Such “modeling” may include a wide range of approaches, including, most notably, statistical models for analyzing historical event data [11] [12] and computational software models that attempt to simulate rare event processes and dynamics. [13] REM also encompasses efforts to forecast the occurrence of similar events over some future time horizon, which may be of interest for both scholarly and applied purposes (e.g., risk mitigation and planning). [14] Novel data collection techniques can be used for learning about rare events data. [15]

Relevant data sets

In many cases, rare and catastrophic events can be regarded as extreme-magnitude instances of more mundane phenomena. For example, seismic activity, stock market fluctuations, and acts of organized violence all occur along a continuum of extremity, with more extreme-magnitude cases being statistically more infrequent. [16] Therefore, rather than viewing rare event data as its own class of information, data concerning "rare" events often exists as a subset of data within a broader parent event class (e.g., a seismic activity data set would include instances of extreme earthquakes, as well as data on much lower-intensity seismic events).

The following is a list of data sets focusing on domains that are of broad scholarly and policy interest, and where "rare" (extreme-magnitude) cases may be of particularly keen interest due to their potentially devastating consequences. Descriptions of the data sets are extracted from the source websites or providers.

Conflicts

Natural disasters

Diseases

Others

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earthquake</span> Sudden movement of the Earths crust

An earthquake – also called a quake, tremor, or temblor – is the shaking of the Earth's surface resulting from a sudden release of energy in the lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from those so weak they cannot be felt, to those violent enough to propel objects and people into the air, damage critical infrastructure, and wreak destruction across entire cities. The seismic activity of an area is the frequency, type, and size of earthquakes experienced over a particular time. The seismicity at a particular location in the Earth is the average rate of seismic energy release per unit volume.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tsunami</span> Series of water waves caused by the displacement of a large volume of a body of water

A tsunami is a series of waves in a water body caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean or a large lake. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and underwater explosions above or below water all have the potential to generate a tsunami. Unlike normal ocean waves, which are generated by wind, or tides, which are in turn generated by the gravitational pull of the Moon and the Sun, a tsunami is generated by the displacement of water from a large event.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natural disaster</span> Type of adverse event

A natural disaster is the very harmful impact on a society or community after a natural hazard event. Some examples of natural hazard events include avalanches, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides, tropical cyclones, volcanic activity and wildfires. Additional natural hazards include blizzards, dust storms, firestorms, hails, ice storms, sinkholes, thunderstorms, tornadoes and tsunamis. A natural disaster can cause loss of life or damage property. It typically causes economic damage. How bad the damage is depends on how well people are prepared for disasters and how strong the buildings, roads, and other structures are. Scholars have been saying that the term natural disaster is unsuitable and should be abandoned. Instead, the simpler term disaster could be used. At the same time the type of hazard would be specified. A disaster happens when a natural or human-made hazard impacts a vulnerable community. It results from the combination of the hazard and the exposure of a vulnerable society.

Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two M4 events and 15 M3 events every year from 2004 to 2009. The Human-Induced Earthquake Database (HiQuake) documents all reported cases of induced seismicity proposed on scientific grounds and is the most complete compilation of its kind.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Usoi Dam</span> Landslide dam on the Murghab River, Tajikistan

The Usoi Dam is a natural landslide dam along the Murghab River in Tajikistan. At 567 metres (1,860 ft) high, it is the tallest dam in the world, either natural or man-made. The dam was created on 18 February 1911, when the 7.4-Ms Sarez earthquake caused a massive landslide that blocked the flow of the river.

Earthquake forecasting is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake seismic hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. While forecasting is usually considered to be a type of prediction, earthquake forecasting is often differentiated from earthquake prediction, Earthquake forecasting estimates the likelihood of earthquakes in a specific timeframe and region, while earthquake prediction attempts to pinpoint the exact time, location, and magnitude of an impending quake, which is currently not reliably achievable.Wood & Gutenberg (1935). Kagan says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff define prediction "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted ...."</ref> Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning to regions that might be affected.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1999 Athens earthquake</span> 6.0 Mw earthquake

The 1999 Athens earthquake occurred on September 7 at 14:56:51 local time near Mount Parnitha in Greece with a moment magnitude of 6.0 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent). The proximity to the Athens metropolitan area resulted in widespread structural damage, mainly to the nearby suburban towns of Ano Liosia, Acharnes, Fyli, Thrakomakedones, Kifissia, Metamorfosi, Kamatero and Nea Filadelfeia. More than 100 buildings across those areas collapsed trapping scores of victims under their rubble while dozens more were severely damaged. With damage estimated at $3–4.2 billion, 143 people were killed, and up to 1,600 were treated for injuries in Greece's deadliest natural disaster in almost half a century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International Seismological Centre</span> Organisation charged with collection, analysis and publication of global seismicity data

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) is a non-governmental, nonprofit organisation charged with the final collection, definitive analysis and publication of global seismicity. The ISC was formed in 1964 as an international organisation independent of national governments that would carry on the work of the International Seismological Summary in collecting and analyzing seismic data from around the world, and particularly to handle increased flow of data from the World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN), also established that year. The ISC considers its prime task to be the collection and re-analysis of all available earthquake seismic date in order to produce definitive data on earthquakes. The ISC's catalog is considered "the most complete and authoritative final depository of global earthquake parameter data."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field</span> Volcanic field in British Columbia, Canada

The Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field, also called the Clearwater Cone Group, is a potentially active monogenetic volcanic field in east-central British Columbia, Canada, located approximately 130 km (81 mi) north of Kamloops. It is situated in the Cariboo Mountains of the Columbia Mountains and on the Quesnel and Shuswap Highlands. As a monogenetic volcanic field, it is a place with numerous small basaltic volcanoes and extensive lava flows.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lists of 21st-century earthquakes</span>

The following is a summary of significant earthquakes during the 21st century. In terms of fatalities, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was the most destructive event with 227,898 confirmed fatalities, followed by the 2010 Haiti earthquake with about 160,000 fatalities, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake with 87,587 fatalities, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake suffered by Pakistan with 87,351 fatalities, and the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes with at least 59,488 fatalities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hazard</span> Situation or object that can cause damage

A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would potentially allow them to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk. This term is often used synonymously in colloquial speech.

The 1783 Calabrian earthquakes were a sequence of five strong earthquakes that hit the region of Calabria in southern Italy, the first two of which produced significant tsunamis. The epicenters form a clear alignment extending nearly 100 km from the Straits of Messina to about 18 km SSW of Catanzaro. The epicenter of the first earthquake occurred in the plain of Palmi. The earthquakes occurred over a period of nearly two months, all with estimated magnitudes of 5.9 or greater. Estimates of the total number of deaths lie in the range 32,000 to 50,000.

The 1868 Hawaiʻi earthquake was the largest recorded in the history of Hawaiʻi island, with an estimated magnitude of 7.9 Mfa and a maximum Mercalli intensity of X (Extreme). The earthquake occurred at 4 p.m. local time on April 2, 1868, and caused a landslide and tsunami that led to 77 deaths. The aftershock sequence for this event has continued up to the present day.

A series of small volcanic earthquakes measuring less than 4.0 on the Richter magnitude scale took place in the sparsely populated Nazko area of the Central Interior of British Columbia, Canada, from October 9, 2007, to June 12, 2008. They occurred just west of Nazko Cone, a small tree-covered cinder cone that last erupted about 7,200 years ago.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Imperial Fault Zone</span>

The Imperial Fault Zone is a system of geological faults located in Imperial County in the Southern California region, and adjacent Baja California state in Mexico. It cuts across the border between the United States and Mexico.

The 1932 Jalisco earthquakes began on June 3 at 10:36 UTC with a megathrust event that registered 8.1 on the moment magnitude scale. With a maximum perceived intensity of X (Extreme) on the Mercalli intensity scale, at least 400 deaths were caused in Mexico and neighboring Guatemala. It was the first of a series of seismic events that affected parts of western Mexico during the month of June 1932, all reaching magnitude 7 or greater.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">UCERF3</span> 2015 US Geological Survey earthquake forecast for California

The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period, and of the threat to the built environment. This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses. A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake in the 30 years since 2014.

The region of Zhili was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.5 Ms or 7.4 Mw on June 12, 1830. The epicentre was close to Cixian, which suffered the most severe damage. A total of 7,477 people died as a result of the earthquake.

References

  1. ↑ Sornette, Didier (2017). Why stock markets crash : critical events in complex financial systems. Princeton University Press. ISBN   9781400885091.
  2. ↑ Dysthe, Kristian; Krogstad, Harald E.; Müller, Peter (January 2008). "Oceanic Rogue Waves". Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics. 40 (1): 287–310. Bibcode:2008AnRFM..40..287D. doi:10.1146/annurev.fluid.40.111406.102203.
  3. ↑ Dudley, John M.; Dias, Frédéric; Erkintalo, Miro; Genty, Goëry (28 September 2014). "Instabilities, breathers and rogue waves in optics". Nature Photonics. 8 (10): 755–764. arXiv: 1410.3071 . Bibcode:2014NaPho...8..755D. doi:10.1038/nphoton.2014.220. S2CID   53349599.
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  5. ↑ Morio, J., Balesdent, M. (2015). Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems. Elsevier Science. http://store.elsevier.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780081000915&pagename=search
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  12. ↑ King, Gary; Zeng, Langche (2001). "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations". International Organization. 55 (3): 693–715. doi:10.1162/00208180152507597. ISSN   0020-8183. JSTOR   3078661. S2CID   17865688.
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