Non-deliverable forward

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In finance, a non-deliverable forward (NDF) is an outright forward or futures contract in which counterparties settle the difference between the contracted NDF price or rate and the prevailing spot price or rate on an agreed notional amount. It is used in various markets such as foreign exchange and commodities. NDFs are also known as forward contracts for differences (FCD). [1] NDFs are prevalent in some countries where forward FX trading has been banned by the government (usually as a means to prevent exchange rate volatility).

Contents

Market

The NDF market is an over-the-counter market. NDFs began to trade actively in the 1990s. NDF markets developed for emerging markets with capital controls, where the currencies could not be delivered offshore. Most NDFs are cash-settled in US dollars (USD). [2]

The more active banks quote NDFs from between one month to one year, although some would quote up to two years upon request. The most commonly traded NDF tenors are IMM dates, but banks also offer odd-dated NDFs. NDFs are typically quoted with the USD as the reference currency, and the settlement amount is also in USD.

List of currencies with NDF market

Below is a (non-exhaustive) list of currencies where non-deliverable forwards are traded. [3] [4] Not all non-convertible currencies have a NDF market (e.g. BDT had no active market as of 2011). [5] A currency may be convertible by some market participants while being non-convertible to others.

Asia PacificEurope, Middle East and AfricaLatin America
  • EGP Egyptian pound
  • KZT Kazakhstani tenge
  • NGN Nigerian Naira
  • UGX Ugandan shilling

Structure and features

An NDF is a short-term, cash-settled currency forward between two counterparties. On the contracted settlement date, the profit or loss is adjusted between the two counterparties based on the difference between the contracted NDF rate and the prevailing spot FX rates on an agreed notional amount.

The features of an NDF include:

Because an NDF is a cash-settled instrument, the notional amount is never exchanged. The only exchange of cash flows is the difference between the NDF rate and the prevailing spot market rate—that is determined on the fixing date and exchanged on the settlement date—applied to the notional, i.e. cash flow = (NDF rate – spot rate) × notional.

Consequently, since NDF is a "non-cash", off-balance-sheet item and since the principal sums do not move, NDF bears much lower counter-party risk. NDFs are committed short-term instruments; both counterparties are committed and are obliged to honor the deal. Nevertheless, either counterparty can cancel an existing contract by entering into another offsetting deal at the prevailing market rate.

Pricing and valuation

An investor enters into a forward agreement to purchase a notional amount, N, of the base currency at the contracted forward rate, F, and would pay NF units of the quoted currency. On the fixing date, that investor would theoretically be able to sell the notional amount, N, of the base currency at the prevailing spot rate, S, earning NS units of the quoted currency. Therefore, the profit, , on this trade in terms of the base currency, is given by:

The base currency is usually the more liquid and more frequently traded currency (for example, US Dollar or Euros).

Uses

Synthetic foreign currency loans

NDFs can be used to create a foreign currency loan in a currency, which may not be of interest to the lender.

For example, the borrower wants dollars but wants to make repayments in euros. So, the borrower receives a dollar sum and repayments will still be calculated in dollars, but payment will be made in euros, using the current exchange rate at time of repayment.

The lender wants to lend dollars and receive repayments in dollars. So, at the same time as disbursing the dollar sum to the borrower, the lender enters into a non-deliverable forward agreement with a counterparty (for example, on the Chicago market) that matches the cash flows from the foreign currency repayments.

Effectively, the borrower has a synthetic euro loan; the lender has a synthetic dollar loan; and the counterparty has an NDF contract with the lender.

Arbitrage opportunity

Under certain circumstances, the rates achievable using synthetic foreign currency lending may be lower than borrowing in the foreign currency directly, implying that there is a possibility for arbitrage. Although this is theoretically identical to a second currency loan (with settlement in dollars), the borrower may face basis risk: the possibility that a difference arises between the swap market's exchange rate and the exchange rate on the home market. The lender also bears counterparty risk.

The borrower could, in theory, enter into NDF contracts directly and borrow in dollars separately and achieve the same result. NDF counterparties, however, may prefer to work with a limited range of entities (such as those with a minimum credit rating).

Speculation

It is estimated that between 60 and 80 per cent of NDF trading is speculative. [2] The main difference between the outright forward deals and the non-deliverable forwards is that the settlement is made in dollars since the dealer or counterparty can not settle in the alternative currency of the deal.

Related Research Articles

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets – striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price.

In finance, a derivative is a contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often simply called the underlying. Derivatives can be used for a number of purposes, including insuring against price movements (hedging), increasing exposure to price movements for speculation, or getting access to otherwise hard-to-trade assets or markets.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exchange rate</span> Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.

In finance, a forward rate agreement (FRA) is an interest rate derivative (IRD). In particular it is a linear IRD with strong associations with interest rate swaps (IRSs).

In finance, a futures contract is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other. The asset transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price of the contract is known as the forward price or delivery price. The specified time in the future when delivery and payment occur is known as the delivery date. Because it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative.

In finance, a forward contract, or simply a forward, is a non-standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified future time at a price agreed on in the contract, making it a type of derivative instrument. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future assumes a long position, and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future assumes a short position. The price agreed upon is called the delivery price, which is equal to the forward price at the time the contract is entered into.

A hedge is an investment position intended to offset potential losses or gains that may be incurred by a companion investment. A hedge can be constructed from many types of financial instruments, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, insurance, forward contracts, swaps, options, gambles, many types of over-the-counter and derivative products, and futures contracts.

In finance, a convertible bond, convertible note, or convertible debt is a type of bond that the holder can convert into a specified number of shares of common stock in the issuing company or cash of equal value. It is a hybrid security with debt- and equity-like features. It originated in the mid-19th century, and was used by early speculators such as Jacob Little and Daniel Drew to counter market cornering.

In finance, a swap is an agreement between two counterparties to exchange financial instruments, cashflows, or payments for a certain time. The instruments can be almost anything but most swaps involve cash based on a notional principal amount.

A repurchase agreement, also known as a repo, RP, or sale and repurchase agreement, is a form of short-term borrowing, mainly in government securities. The dealer sells the underlying security to investors and, by agreement between the two parties, buys them back shortly afterwards, usually the following day, at a slightly higher price.

Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year and repay the principal amount on maturity. Fixed-income securities can be contrasted with equity securities that create no obligation to pay dividends or any other form of income. Bonds carry a level of legal protections for investors that equity securities do not: in the event of a bankruptcy, bond holders would be repaid after liquidation of assets, whereas shareholders with stock often receive nothing.

Eurodollars are U.S. dollars held in time deposit accounts in banks outside the United States, which are not subject to the legal jurisdiction of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than deposits within the U.S. The term was originally applied to U.S. dollar accounts held in banks situated in Europe, but it expanded over the years to cover US dollar accounts held anywhere outside the U.S. Thus, a U.S. dollar-denominated deposit in Tokyo or Beijing would likewise be deemed a Eurodollar deposit. The offshore locations of the Eurodollar make it exposed to potential country risk and economic risk.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Foreign exchange market</span> Global decentralized trading of international currencies

The foreign exchange market is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market.

A currency future, also known as an FX future or a foreign exchange future, is a futures contract to exchange one currency for another at a specified date in the future at a price that is fixed on the purchase date; see Foreign exchange derivative. Typically, one of the currencies is the US dollar. The price of a future is then in terms of US dollars per unit of other currency. This can be different from the standard way of quoting in the spot foreign exchange markets. The trade unit of each contract is then a certain amount of other currency, for instance €125,000. Most contracts have physical delivery, so for those held at the end of the last trading day, actual payments are made in each currency. However, most contracts are closed out before that. Investors can close out the contract at any time prior to the contract's delivery date.

In finance, a foreign exchange option is a derivative financial instrument that gives the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. See Foreign exchange derivative.

A quanto is a type of derivative in which the underlying is denominated in one currency, but the instrument itself is settled in another currency at some rate. Such products are attractive for speculators and investors who wish to have exposure to a foreign asset, but without the corresponding exchange rate risk.

In finance, a currency swap is an interest rate derivative (IRD). In particular it is a linear IRD, and one of the most liquid benchmark products spanning multiple currencies simultaneously. It has pricing associations with interest rate swaps (IRSs), foreign exchange (FX) rates, and FX swaps (FXSs).

Basis risk in finance is the risk associated with imperfect hedging due to the variables or characteristics that affect the difference between the futures contract and the underlying "cash" position. It arises because of the difference between the price of the asset to be hedged and the price of the asset serving as the hedge before expiration, namely b = S - F. Barring idiosyncratic influence by the other aspects to be enumerated just below, by the time of expiration this simple difference will be eliminated by arbitrage. The other aspects that give rise to basis risk include

The forward exchange rate is the exchange rate at which a bank agrees to exchange one currency for another at a future date when it enters into a forward contract with an investor. Multinational corporations, banks, and other financial institutions enter into forward contracts to take advantage of the forward rate for hedging purposes. The forward exchange rate is determined by a parity relationship among the spot exchange rate and differences in interest rates between two countries, which reflects an economic equilibrium in the foreign exchange market under which arbitrage opportunities are eliminated. When in equilibrium, and when interest rates vary across two countries, the parity condition implies that the forward rate includes a premium or discount reflecting the interest rate differential. Forward exchange rates have important theoretical implications for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Financial economists have put forth a hypothesis that the forward rate accurately predicts the future spot rate, for which empirical evidence is mixed.

A parallel loan is two loans taken out by two pairs of companies in different countries from local lenders with the aim of swapping the resulting loans in different currencies. It was an early form of currency swap.

References

  1. Khader Shaik (2014). Managing Derivatives Contracts: A Guide to Derivatives Market Structure, Contract Life Cycle, Operations, and Systems. Apress. p. 48. ISBN   978-1-4302-6275-6.
  2. 1 2 Lipscomb, Laura (May 2005). "An Overview of Non-Deliverable Foreign Exchange Forward Markets" (PDF). Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved 2007-09-29.
  3. Foreign exchange currencies [ dead link ]
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-06-17. Retrieved 2013-08-07.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  5. 1 2 HSBC’s Emerging Markets Currency Guide 2011. A Guiding Light HSBC January 2011 Archived 4 September 2012 at the Wayback Machine
  6. Managing FX Exposures Against Non-convertible Currencies, United Overseas Bank Limited, Singapore

Other sources