Futurist

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Futurists (also known as futurologists, prospectivists, foresight practitioners and horizon scanners ) are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general. [1]

Contents

Definition

Past futurists and the emergence of the term

The term "futurist" most commonly refers to people who attempt to understand the future (sometimes called trend analysis) such as authors, consultants, thinkers, organizational leaders and others who engage in interdisciplinary and systems thinking to advise private and public organizations on such matters as diverse global trends, possible scenarios, emerging market opportunities and risk management. Futurist is not in the sense of the art movement futurism.

The Oxford English Dictionary identifies the earliest use of the term futurism in English as 1842, to refer, in a theological context, to the Christian eschatological tendency of that time. The next recorded use is the label adopted by the Italian and Russian Futurists, the artistic, literary and political movements of the 1920s and 1930s which sought to reject the past and fervently embrace speed, technology, and often violent change.

There are a number of organizations that specialize in this field including the World Future Society, the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) and the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF).

Visionary writers such as H. G. Wells, Jules Verne and Aldous Huxley were not in their day characterized as futurists. The term futurology in its contemporary sense was first coined in the mid‑1940s by the German Professor Ossip K. Flechtheim, who proposed a new science of probability. Flechtheim argued that even if systematic forecasting did no more than unveil the subset of statistically highly probable processes of change and charted their advance, it would still be of crucial social value. [2]

In the mid‑1940s the first professional "futurist" consulting institutions like RAND and SRI began to engage in long-range planning, systematic trend watching, scenario development, and visioning, at first under World War II military and government contract and, beginning in the 1950s, for private institutions and corporations. The period from the late 1940s to the mid‑1960s laid the conceptual and methodological foundations of the modern futurology field. Bertrand de Jouvenel's The Art of Conjecture in 1963 and Dennis Gabor's Inventing the Future in 1964 are considered key early works, and the first U.S. university course devoted entirely to the future was taught by the late Alvin Toffler at the New School in 1966. [3]

Modern futurists

More generally, the label includes such disparate lay, professional, and academic groups as visionaries, foresight consultants, corporate strategists, policy analysts, cultural critics, planners, marketers, forecasters, prediction market developers, roadmappers, operations researchers, investment managers, actuaries, and other risk analyzers, and future-oriented individuals educated in every academic discipline, including anthropology, complexity studies, computer science, economics, engineering, urban design, evolutionary biology, history, management, mathematics, philosophy, physical sciences, political science, psychology, sociology, systems theory, technology studies, trend analysis, and other disciplines.

Futurology

"Futurology"—or "futures studies", futures research, and foresight—can be summarized as being concerned with "three P's and a W", i.e. "possible, probable, and preferable" futures, plus "wildcards", which are low-probability, high-impact events, should they occur. Even with high-profile, probable events, such as the fall of telecommunications costs, the growth of the internet, or the aging demographics of particular countries, there is often significant uncertainty in the rate or continuation of a trend. Thus, a key part of futures analysis is the managing of uncertainty and risk. [4]

Futurists and futurology

Dubai Future Forum (2024), the largest annual gathering of futurists. Dubai Future Forum 2024 - interior 01.jpg
Dubai Future Forum (2024), the largest annual gathering of futurists.
Futurist Paul Saffo. Dubai Future Forum 2024 - Paul Saffo.jpg
Futurist Paul Saffo.

Not all futurists engage in the practice of futurology as generally defined. Pre-conventional futurists (see below) would generally not. And while religious futurists, astrologers, occultists, New Age diviners, etc. use methodologies that include study, none of their personal revelation or belief-based work would fall within a consensus definition of futurology as used in academics or by futures studies professionals.

Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends, particularly in technology, and write their observations, conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, many futurists[ who? ] were at academic institutions.[ citation needed ] John McHale, author of The Future of the Future, published a "Futures Directory", and directed a think tank called The Centre For Integrative Studies at State University of New York in 1968. [5] [ where? ] Futurists have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers, with examples including Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Patrick Dixon. Frank Feather is a business speaker that presents himself as a pragmatic futurist. Some futurists have commonalities with science fiction, and some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, [6] are known as futurists.[ citation needed ] In the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness , Ursula K. Le Guin distinguished futurists from novelists, writing of the study as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists. In her words, "a novelist's business is lying".

A 2001 survey of 108 futurists [7] found the following shared assumptions:

  1. We are in the midst of a historical transformation. Current times are not just part of normal history.
  2. Multiple perspectives are at the heart of futures studies, including unconventional thinking, internal critique, and cross-cultural comparison.
  3. Consideration of alternatives. Futurists do not see themselves as value-free forecasters, but instead aware of multiple possibilities.
  4. Participatory futures. Futurists generally see their role as liberating the future in each person, and creating enhanced public ownership of the future. This is true worldwide.[ clarification needed ]
  5. Long-term policy transformation. While some are more policy-oriented than others, almost all believe that the work of futures studies is to shape public policy, so it consciously and explicitly takes into account the long term.
  6. Part of the process of creating alternative futures and of influencing public (corporate, or international) policy is internal transformation. At international meetings, structural and individual factors are considered equally important.
  7. Complexity. Futurists believe that a simple one-dimensional or single-discipline orientation is not satisfactory. Trans-disciplinary approaches that take complexity seriously are necessary. Systems thinking, particularly in its evolutionary dimension, is also crucial.
  8. Futurists are motivated by change. They are not content merely to describe or forecast. They desire an active role in world transformation.
  9. They are hopeful for a better future as a "strange attractor".
  10. Most believe they are pragmatists in this world, even as they imagine and work for another. Futurists have a long term perspective.
  11. Sustainable futures, understood as making decisions that do not reduce future options, that include policies on nature, gender, and other accepted paradigms. This applies to corporate futurists and other non-governmental organizations. Environmental sustainability is reconciled with the technological, spiritual, and post-structural ideals. Sustainability is not a "back to nature" ideal, but rather inclusive of technology and culture.

Notable futurists

Other uses

The term has also been used to refer to popular electronic music acts who emerged in the late 1970s, such as Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark and The Human League. [8] [9]

See also

Related Research Articles

Futurism is an artistic and social movement that originated in Italy in the early 20th century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Future</span> Time after the present

The future is the time after the past and present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone.

The Delphi method or Delphi technique is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.

Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Futures studies</span> Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures

Futures studies, futures research, futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.

Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies. In a business context, a more action-oriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.

In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:

Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Association of Professional Futurists</span> Worldwide nonprofit organization

The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 to validate the competencies of emerging futurists. As analysts, speakers, managers or consultants, APF's credentialed members cultivate strategic foresight for their organizations and clients. APF represents the professional side of the futures movement, while groups such as the World Futures Studies Federation, the World Future Society or The Millennium Project, represent its academic, popular, and activists expressions, respectively.

The World Future Society (WFS), founded in 1966, is an international community of futurists and future thinkers.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Peter C. Bishop</span> American futurist and author

Peter C. Bishop is a professional futurist (futurologist), a retired Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight, and the former Director of the graduate program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston.

Corporate foresight has been conceptualised by strategic foresight practitioners and academics working and/or studying corporations as a set of practices, a set of capabilities and an ability of a firm. It enables firms to detect discontinuous change early, interpret its consequences for the firm, and inform future courses of action to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company.

Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy is an international bi-monthly journal published by the Emerald Publishing Group. The name connotes the term "foresight" as it is used in futures studies. Established in 1999, the journal provides a powerful framework and set of techniques that allow for understanding trends and drivers shaping the world, exploring alternative futures, setting priorities and formulating strategies for action. Foresight is a valuable source for futurists and foresight practitioners who should be at the forefront of discovering practical ways to manage 21st century life under growing complexity with a long-term perspective. The journal offers a much-needed forum for sound thinking about the future and socio-technological innovations, and focuses on themes and issues shaping the future, new quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as case studies with novel approaches. The journal is edited by Prof.Dr. Ozcan Saritas since 2009.

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a future research theory that integrates various epistemic modes, creates spaces for alternative futures, and consists of four layers: litany, social, and structural, worldview, and myth/metaphor. The method was created by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futures studies researcher.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Institute for the Future</span> American non-profit thinktank

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as futures studies.

Ossip Kurt Flechtheim was a German jurist, political scientist, author, futurist, and a humanist. He is credited with coining of the term "Futurology".

Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future.

Andy Hines is an American futurist, head of graduate studies in Foresight at the University of Houston, and author of several books on strategic foresight. Hines is a professional futurist, co-creator of the framework foresight method, Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Foresight at the University of Houston, Principal of foresight consulting firm Hinesight, and former organizational futurist at Kellogg Company and Dow Chemical. He has written extensively on futures studies, strategic foresight, foresight research methods, the role of organizational futurists, and the consumer landscape.

Heiko Andreas von der Gracht is a German academic, futurist, author, and an expert in the fields of Foresight and Technology management.

References

  1. ↑ Sardar, Ziauddin (2010-04-01). "The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?". Futures. 42 (3): 177–184. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.001. ISSN   0016-3287 . Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  2. ↑ Flechtheim, O (1972). Futurology-The New Science of Probability? in Toffler, A (1972). The Futurists p. 264-276
  3. ↑ Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Volume 1 New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers., p. 60. ISBN   1-56000-271-9.
  4. ↑ The Future: An Owner's Manual, World Future Society Archived 2006-10-19 at the Wayback Machine
  5. ↑ Johnson, Ken (17 March 2008). "Magda Cordell McHale, 86, artist and futurist". The New York Times.
  6. ↑ "Sir Arthur C. Clarke". Archived from the original on 2016-03-26. Retrieved 2016-11-06.
  7. ↑ Sohail Inayatullah, ed., The Views of Futurists. Vol 4, The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Brisbane, Foresight International, 2001.
  8. ↑ Green, Thomas H (1 November 2010). "OMD, Brighton Dome, review". The Telegraph . Retrieved 6 April 2017.
  9. ↑ Sullivan, Caroline (17 March 2011). "The Human League: Credo – review". The Guardian . Retrieved 6 April 2017.
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