2027 New South Wales state election

Last updated

2027 New South Wales state election
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←  2023 No earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 20272031 →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Fundraising function for Mr Edmond Atalla MP, State Member for Member for Mount Druitt, with then NSW Opposition Leader, Mr Chris Minns MP (cropped).jpg
150225 MDCC Election Forum Mark Speakman (cropped) b.jpg
Greens placeholder-01.png
Leader Chris Minns Mark Speakman None
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 4 June 2021 21 April 2023 N/A
Leader's seat Kogarah Cronulla N/A
Last election45 seats, 36.97%36 seats, 35.37%3 seats, 9.70%
Current seats45353
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 2Increase2.svg 12Increase2.svg 44
Incumbent Premier

Chris Minns
Labor



The next New South Wales state election will be held no earlier than 30 January 2027 and no later than 27 March 2027, [1] to elect the 59th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Contents

The incumbent Labor minority government, led by Premier Chris Minns, will seek to win a second four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National coalition, led by Mark Speakman. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

At the previous state election held in 2023, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Chris Minns, won the election after spending 12 years in Opposition. The election saw Labor win 45 seats to the Coalition's 36 seats on election day, allowing Labor to form an initial minority government. The Greens retained their three seats, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost all three of their seats as a result of their MPs resigning from the party to become independents.

In the Legislative Council (the Upper House), 21 of the 42 seats were up for election. Both the Coalition and Labor won 15 seats each, however after the election of Ben Franklin as President of the Legislative Council, the Coalition's effective vote on the floor on the council was reduced to 14. [2] The Greens won 4 seats in the Legislative Council. One Nation won 3 seats, which is its largest representation in New South Wales and currently its largest in any Australian parliament (including the federal Parliament). Meanwhile, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party retained its two seats, the Animal Justice Party lost one of its two seats and two parties (the Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats) won their first ever seats in the New South Wales Parliament.

Since the 2023 state election, there have been one by-election, 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, and three incoming by elections, 2024 Pittwater state by-election, 2024 Epping state by-election and the 2024 Hornsby state by-election.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March, [3] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 24B, Paragraph 4 of the Constitution Act 1902 states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.” [1] Since 27 March 2027 is Holy Saturday, it is highly unlikely that an election will be held on this day, given the number of citizens of New South Wales who travel or are otherwise occupied during the Easter long weekend. Two months before this date is 27 January 2027; however, since all Australian elections must by law take place on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the 2027 New South Wales state election (other than by early dissolution) is Saturday 30 January 2027.

Pre-election pendulum

Extended content
Labor seats (45)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Penrith Karen McKeown ALP1.6%
East Hills Kylie Wilkinson ALP1.8%
Monaro Steve Whan ALP2.4% v NAT
Camden Sally Quinnell ALP2.9%
South Coast Liza Butler ALP3.7%
Riverstone Warren Kirby ALP3.7%
Fairly safe
The Entrance David Mehan ALP7.8%
Liverpool Charishma Kaliyanda ALP8.4%
Parramatta Donna Davis ALP8.5%
Leppington Nathan Hagarty ALP8.7%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP8.8%
Heathcote Maryanne Stuart ALP9.9%
Safe
Bega Michael Holland ALP10.4%
Cabramatta Tri Vo ALP11.8%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP12.2%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP13.1%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP13.6%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP15.0% v NAT
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP15.4%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP15.4%
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP15.4%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP17.1% v IND
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP16.8% v GRN
Very safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP18.3%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP18.6%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP18.6%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP19.0%
Wyong David Harris ALP19.2%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP19.9%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP20.1%
Bankstown Jihad Dib ALP20.3%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP21.1%
Fairfield David Saliba ALP21.1%
Granville Julia Finn ALP21.5%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP21.9%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP22.3%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP22.6%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP23.2%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP23.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP23.4% v ONP
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP24%
Keira Ryan Park ALP24.3%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP24.3%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP25.7%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP31.8%
Liberal/National seats (35)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Ryde Jordan Lane LIB0.1% [lower-alpha 1]
Holsworthy Tina Ayyad LIB0.4%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB0.8%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB1.2%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB1.3%
Drummoyne Stephanie Di Pasqua LIB1.3%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB1.8%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB2.3%
Willoughby Tim James LIB2.6% v IND
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT3.6%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell NAT3.8%
Manly James Griffin LIB4.8% v IND
Epping Monica Tudehope LIB4.8% [lower-alpha 2]
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB5.5%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB5.6% v IND
Fairly safe
Hornsby James Wallace LIB8.0% [lower-alpha 3]
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB9.9%
Safe
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB10.5%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB10.5%
Castle Hill Mark Hodges LIB10.9%
Kellyville Ray Williams LIB10.9%
Oxley Michael Kemp NAT12.8%
Vaucluse Kellie Sloane LIB12.8% v IND
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT13.2%
Davidson Matt Cross LIB14.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB14.0%
Clarence Richie Williamson NAT14.5%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT15.8% v IND
Myall Lakes Tanya Thompson NAT15.9%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB16.3%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams LIB16.7% [lower-alpha 4]
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT18.7%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT23.6%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT32.3%
Northern Tablelands Brendan Moylan NAT33.8% [lower-alpha 5]
Crossbench seats (13)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Pittwater Jacqui Scruby IND0.7% v LIB [lower-alpha 6]
Wollondilly Judy Hannan IND1.8% v LIB
Kiama Gareth Ward IND1.8% v ALP
Balmain Kobi Shetty GRN1.8% v ALP
Wakehurst Michael Regan IND4.4% v LIB
Fairly safe
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN7.7% v NAT
Safe
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN12.1% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND15.8% v ALP
Murray Helen Dalton IND16.0% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler IND16% v NAT
Very safe
Orange Philip Donato IND22.0% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND22.2% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND24.3% v ALP

Registered parties

Fourteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC). [4] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
ALP L/NP GRN ON OTH ALP L/NP
6 October 2024Resolve Strategic [5] [lower-alpha 7] 32%37%11%—20%50%50%
6–29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [6] [7] 32%38%12%—18%50%50%
11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [8] [lower-alpha 8] 30%38%12%—20%49%51%
16 June 2024Resolve Strategic [9] [lower-alpha 9] 32%35%11%—22%52%48%
February – May 2024Redbridge [10] 35%40%11%—14%50.5%49.5%
21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [11] [lower-alpha 10] 33%36%12%—19%52%48%
25 February 2024Resolve Strategic [12] [lower-alpha 11] 34%38%12%—17%51.5%48.5%
5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [13] [lower-alpha 12] 36%32%13%—19%57%43%
10 September 2023Resolve Strategic [14] [lower-alpha 13] 38%36%9%—17%54%46%
16 July 2023Resolve Strategic [15] [lower-alpha 14] 41%32%10%—16%58%42%
14 May 2023Resolve Strategic [16] [lower-alpha 15] 44%31%9%—15%60%40%
25 March 2023 election36.97%35.37%9.70%1.80%16.18%54.26%45.74%

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Better Premier and satisfaction polling
DateFirmBetter PremierMinnsSpeakman
Minns Speakman SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
6 October 2024Resolve Strategic [5] 37%14%not askednot asked
11 August 2024Resolve Strategic [8] 38%13%not askednot asked
16 June 2024Resolve Strategic [9] 38%13%not askednot asked
February – May 2024Redbridge [10] not asked40%20%19%21%
21 April 2024Resolve Strategic [11] 37%16%not askednot asked
25 February 2024Resolve Strategic [12] 35%16%not askednot asked
5 November 2023Resolve Strategic [13] 35%13%not askednot asked
10 September 2023Resolve Strategic [14] 41%14%not askednot asked
16 July 2023Resolve Strategic [15] 39%12%not askednot asked
14 May 2023Resolve Strategic [16] 42%12%not askednot asked
25 March 2023 election––––––

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Jordan Lane won the seat by just 54 votes in the two-party-preferred contest against Labor candidate Lyndal Howison. Labor saw an 8.9% swing towards them on two-party-preferences, which was the exact margin that the Liberals won Ryde with in 2019 with Victor Dominello.
  2. ↑ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Epping state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  3. ↑ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Hornsby state by-election, for consistency.
  4. ↑ The margin shown is the Liberal vs Labor margin. At this election, two Coalition candidates contested the seat of Port Macquarie, both of which made the two-party-preferred contest. The Liberal vs National margin is 10.8%. It is very rare for the Coalition to run two candidates in New South Wales and it is thus unlikely that this phenomenon will reoccur in 2027.
  5. ↑ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Northern Tablelands state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  6. ↑ This number reflects the result at the 2023 New South Wales state election rather than the 2024 Pittwater state by-election, which Labor did not contest, for consistency.
  7. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.
  8. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  9. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  10. ↑ Includes two-party preferred result estimate.
  11. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  12. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  13. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  14. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.
  15. ↑ Two-party preferred result estimated by William Bowe of Poll Bludger.

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References

  1. 1 2 "Constitution Act 1902 No 32". legislation.nsw.gov.au. Retrieved 27 March 2023.
  2. ↑ https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/ben-franklin-becomes-nsw-legislative-council-president-after-bitter-saga/news-story/bbfb569efe2744bb1e2bb243eddb9052
  3. ↑ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  4. ↑ "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
  5. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra (9 October 2024). "Revealed: The NSW housing reform that has disappointed most voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 October 2024.
  6. ↑ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  7. ↑ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  8. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra (18 August 2024). "NSW voters back rental reforms to stop unfair evictions". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
  9. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "The housing crisis has split Sydney. This is where the voters have landed". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  10. 1 2 O'Doherty, James. "'Politics of grievance' on show as Chris Minns' NSW Labor government slides in the polls". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  11. 1 2 Bowe, William. "Resolve Strategic: Labor 33, Coalition 36, Greens 12 in NSW". Poll Bludger. Retrieved 3 May 2024.
  12. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor trailing Coalition for first time in two years". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 5 March 2024.
  13. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2023.
  14. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "Honeymoon over as NSW Labor suffers hit to primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
  15. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "Majority still 'liked and respected' Berejiklian, but one-third changed minds after corrupt finding". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
  16. 1 2 Smith, Alexandra. "Rise in voters worried about skyrocketing rental prices adds to Minns' cost-of-living challenge". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
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