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United States presidential straw polls in Guam

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Presidential straw polls in Guam
Map of the United States with Guam highlighted
Number of straw polls12
Voted Democratic8
Voted Republican4
Voted for winning candidate9
Voted for losing candidate3

Because it is a U.S. territory instead of a U.S. state, voters in Guam are ineligible to elect members of the Electoral College, who would then cast direct electoral votes for president and vice president. The territory nonetheless conducts a non-binding straw poll on the day of the presidential general election to gauge the preference for president every election year.[1]

The poll has been held in Guam during every presidential election since 1980.[1] It was established after the Legislature of Guam passed Public Law 15-49, which requires the Guam Election Commission to conduct the poll. The law also instructs the chairman of the board of the Guam Election Commission to essentially conduct a meeting of electors like those in the states and act as the territory's sole elector, including formally casting an electoral college ballot for the presidential ticket receiving the highest number of votes in the territory, and then officially sending the result to the U.S. Congress.[2]

Because Guam is 15 hours ahead of the contiguous United States, the poll is regarded as an indicator of how the rest of the country will vote.[3] The territory is home to three U.S. military bases and current and former service members and has historically had a higher voter turnout than the mainland.[4] Since 1980, the results of the Guam poll have aligned with the results of the mainland, except in three instances: in 1980, when the islanders favored Jimmy Carter instead of eventual winner Ronald Reagan, in 2016, when they favored Hillary Clinton instead of Donald Trump, and in 2024, when they favored Kamala Harris instead of Donald Trump.

Results

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Winners of the territory are in bold.

Key for parties
  Democratic Party – (D)
  Green Party – (G)
  Libertarian Party – (LI)
  Republican Party – (R)


Note –
A double dagger (‡) indicates the national winner.
Note – Percentages may not total 100.0%.

Election results
Year Winner Runner-up Other candidate[a] Ref.
Candidate Votes % Candidate Votes % Candidate Votes %
2024 Kamala Harris (D) 13,510 49.46 Donald Trump (R) 12,624 46.22 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) 938 3.43 [5]
2020 Joe Biden (D) 14,610 55.38 Donald Trump (R) 11,058 41.91 Howie Hawkins (G) 185 0.70 [6][7]
2016 Hillary Clinton (D) 23,052 71.62 Donald Trump[b] (R) 7,779 24.17 Mimi Soltysik (S) 1,357 4.22 [3][7]
2012 Barack Obama (D) 22,688 72.51 Mitt Romney (R) 8,252 26.37 Gary Johnson (LI) 351 1.12 [7]
2008 Barack Obama (D) 20,119 57.33 John McCain (R) 11,941 34.03 [7]
2004 George W. Bush (R) 21,490 64.08 John Kerry (D) 11,781 35.13 [7]
2000 George W. Bush[b] (R) 18,075 51.58 Al Gore (D) 16,549 47.22 [7]
1996 Bill Clinton (D) 19,265 59.67 Bob Dole (R) 12,524 38.79 [2][8][7]
1992 Bill Clinton (D) 10,233 59.11 George H. W. Bush (R) 6,817 39.38 [7]
1988 George H. W. Bush (R) 14,241 58.84 Michael Dukakis (D) 9,646 39.86 [7]
1984 Ronald Reagan (R) 17,259 63.97 Walter Mondale (D) 9,429 34.95 [7]
1980 Jimmy Carter (D) 14,352 57.01 Ronald Reagan (R) 9,658 38.37 John B. Anderson (I) 954 3.79 [7]

Notes

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  1. ^ For purpose of this list, other candidates are defined as those who were in third place in Guam.
  2. ^ a b Won the electoral college while losing the popular vote

References

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  1. ^ a b "Guam's Straw Poll Picks Obama, Overwhelmingly". National Public Radio. November 6, 2012.
  2. ^ a b "2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission. July 5, 2013. p. 39. Retrieved May 27, 2020.
  3. ^ a b "Guam, which has historically predicted election winner, picks Clinton". USA Today. November 8, 2016.
  4. ^ "Guam's voters tend to predict the presidency — but they have no say in the Electoral College". PRI.org. November 8, 2016.
  5. ^ "2024 GENERAL ELECTION UNOFFICIAL RESULTS SUMMARY 1.pdf". Google Drive. Guam Election Commission. p. 10. Retrieved 5 November 2024.
  6. ^ "Summary Results Report" (PDF). November 4, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Election Comparative Analysis Report". Guam Election Commission.
  8. ^ Arroyo, Rafael H. (7 November 1996). "Guam Republicans Poised to Control New Legislature" (PDF). Marianas Variety. Vol. 25, no. 171. p. 6. Retrieved 22 October 2020.