2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Registered | 1,056,862 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 16.78% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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LGA results Tinubu: 30–40% 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Background
[edit]Bayelsa State is a small state in the South South mainly populated by Ijaw peoples; although its oil reserves make it one of the most resource-rich states in the nation, Bayelsa has faced challenges in security and environmental degradation in large part due to years of systemic corruption and illegal oil bunkering.
Politically, the state's early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP's dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee David Lyon won by a large margin but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration.
Polling
[edit]Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 9% | 27% | 2% | 13% | – | 13% | 20% | 16% |
Nextier (Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 11.4% | 62.9% | – | 20.0% | – | 5.7% | – | – |
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 9% | 41% | – | 47% | – | 2% | – | – |
Projections
[edit]Source | Projection | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
Africa Elects[b][2] | Lean Obi | 24 February 2023 | |
Dataphyte[c][3] | |||
Tinubu: | 20.87% | 11 February 2023 | |
Obi: | 45.03% | ||
Abubakar: | 28.05% | ||
Others: | 6.05% | ||
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[d][4] |
Abubakar | 17 February 2023 | |
SBM Intelligence[e][5] | Abubakar | 15 December 2022 | |
ThisDay[f][6] | |||
Tinubu: | 20% | 27 December 2022 | |
Obi: | 30% | ||
Kwankwaso: | – | ||
Abubakar: | 40% | ||
Others/Undecided: | 10% | ||
The Nation[g][7][8] | Abubakar | 12-19 February 2023 |
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]Candidate | Running mate | Party | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atiku Abubakar | Ifeanyi Okowa | PDP | 68,818 | 41.63 | |
Peter Obi | Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed | LP | 49,975 | 30.23 | |
Bola Tinubu | Kashim Shettima | APC | 42,572 | 25.75 | |
Rabiu Kwankwaso | Isaac Idahosa | NNPP | 540 | 0.33 | |
Other candidates | – | Others | 3,420 | 2.07 | |
Total | 165,325 | 100.00 | |||
Valid votes | 165,325 | 95.50 | |||
Invalid/blank votes | 7,786 | 4.50 | |||
Total votes | 177,368 | – | |||
Registered voters/turnout | 1,056,862 | 16.78 | |||
Source: [9][10] |
By senatorial district
[edit]The results of the election by senatorial district.
Senatorial district | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
Bayelsa Central Senatorial District[h] | 18,438 | 21.72% | 34,560 | 40.70% | 30,056 | 35.40% | 413 | 0.49% | 1,439 | 1.69% | 84,906 |
Bayelsa East Senatorial District[i] | 15,133 | 35.79% | 14,905 | 35.26% | 10,801 | 25.55% | 87 | 0.21% | 1,351 | 3.20% | 42,277 |
Bayelsa West Senatorial District[j] | 9,001 | 23.60% | 19,353 | 50.74% | 9,118 | 23.91% | 40 | 0.10% | 630 | 1.65% | 38,142 |
Totals | 42,572 | 25.75% | 68,818 | 41.62% | 49,975 | 30.23% | 540 | 0.33% | 3,420 | 2.07% | 165,325 |
By federal constituency
[edit]The results of the election by federal constituency.
Federal constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
Brass/Nembe Federal Constituency[k] | 6,689 | 33.68% | 8,543 | 43.02% | 4,080 | 20.54% | 40 | 0.20% | 508 | 2.56% | 19,860 |
Ogbia Federal Constituency[l] | 8,444 | 37.67% | 6,362 | 28.38% | 6,721 | 29.98% | 47 | 0.21% | 843 | 3.76% | 22,417 |
Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency[m] | 9,001 | 23.60% | 19,353 | 50.74% | 9,118 | 23.91% | 40 | 0.10% | 630 | 1.65% | 38,142 |
Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency[n] | 7,650 | 32.22% | 11,280 | 47.51% | 4,400 | 18.53% | 190 | 0.80% | 224 | 0.94% | 23,744 |
Yenagoa/Kolokuna/Opokuma Federal Constituency[o] | 10,788 | 17.64% | 23,280 | 38.06% | 25,656 | 41.95% | 223 | 0.36% | 1,215 | 1.99% | 61,162 |
Totals | 42,572 | 25.75% | 68,818 | 41.62% | 49,975 | 30.23% | 540 | 0.33% | 3,420 | 2.07% | 165,325 |
By local government area
[edit]The results of the election by local government area.
Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
Brass[11] | 3,684 | 29.70% | 6,209 | 50.06% | 2,273 | 18.32% | 25 | 0.20% | 213 | 1.72% | 12,404 | 13.86% |
Ekeremor[12] | 4,398 | 24.00% | 9,113 | 49.73% | 4,489 | 24.49% | 16 | 0.09% | 310 | 1.69% | 18,326 | 13.71% |
Kolokuma/Opokuma[13] | 4,137 | 24.63% | 8,972 | 53.42% | 3,395 | 20.21% | 34 | 0.20% | 259 | 1.54% | 16,797 | 26.65% |
Nembe[14] | 3,005 | 40.30% | 2,334 | 31.30% | 1,807 | 24.24% | 15 | 0.20% | 295 | 3.96% | 7,456 | 7.81% |
Ogbia[15] | 8,444 | 37.67% | 6,362 | 28.38% | 6,721 | 29.98% | 47 | 0.21% | 843 | 3.76% | 22,417 | 20.89% |
Sagbama[16] | 4,603 | 23.23% | 10,240 | 51.68% | 4,629 | 23.36% | 24 | 0.12% | 320 | 1.61% | 19,816 | 17.13% |
Southern Ijaw[17] | 7,650 | 32.22% | 11,280 | 47.51% | 4,400 | 18.53% | 190 | 0.80% | 224 | 0.94% | 23,744 | 13.50% |
Yenagoa[18] | 6,651 | 14.99% | 14,308 | 32.25% | 22,261 | 50.18% | 189 | 0.43% | 956 | 2.15% | 44,365 | 21.41% |
Totals | 42,572 | 25.75% | 68,818 | 41.62% | 49,975 | 30.23% | 540 | 0.33% | 3,420 | 2.07% | 165,325 | 16.38% |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Due to disruptions on Election Day, INEC postponed voting in 141 polling units to 26 February.
- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma, Southern Ijaw, and Yenagoa.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Brass, Ogbia, and Nembe.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Brass and Nembe.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Ogbia.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Southern Ijaw.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma and Yenagoa.
References
[edit]- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Ukpong, Cletus (28 February 2023). "#NigeriaDecides2023: Atiku wins Bayelsa". Premium Times. Retrieved 28 February 2023.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "Cumulative Presidential Results from Bayelsa State" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BRASS LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "EKEREMOR LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BREAKDOWN OF RESULTS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR BAYELSA STATE: KOLOKUMA/OPUKUMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "NEMBE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "OGBIA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SAGBAMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SOUTHERN IJAW LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "YENAGOA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.