2020 Florida Senate election
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20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate 21 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Turnout | 38.62% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Results: Republican gain Republican hold Democratic hold No election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.[1]
The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date.[2]
Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light,[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez.[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.[5]
Competitive races
[edit]The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.[6][7]
2016 Presidential Results[8] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:
Senate district | Clinton 2016 vote share | Trump 2016 vote share | 2020 Democratic nominee | 2020 Republican nominee |
District 3 | 52.60% Clinton | 43.95% Trump | Loranne Ausley | Marva Harris Preston |
District 9 | 45.98% Clinton | 49.87% Trump | Patricia Sigman | Jason Brodeur |
District 20 | 43.99% Clinton | 52.28% Trump | Kathy Lewis | Danny Burgess |
District 37 | 59.55% Clinton | 37.89% Trump | José Javier Rodríguez | Ileana Garcia |
District 39 | 53.74% Clinton | 43.49% Trump | Javier Fernandez | Ana Maria Rodriguez |
Overview
[edit]![]() | ||||||||
Party | Votes | % | Seats | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total before |
Up | Won | Total after |
+/− | ||||
Republican Party of Florida | 2,663,076 | 49.03 | 23 | 10 | 11 | 24 | +1 | |
Florida Democratic Party | 2,642,318 | 48.65 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 16 | -1 | |
Independent | 125,497 | 2.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
Write-in | 603 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
Total | 5,431,494 | 100.00 | 40 | 20 | 20 | 40 | ±0 | |
Source: Florida Division of Elections[9][10] |
Closest races
[edit]Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:
- District 37, 0.02% gain
- District 9, 2.7%
- District 3, 6.8%
- District 20, 9.6%
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[11] | Lean R | October 21, 2020 |
Primary election polling
[edit]District 27 - Republican
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Heather Fitzhagen |
Ray Rodriguez |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | July 28, 2020 | 463 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 59% | 23% |
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[A] | July 20, 2020 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3% | 22% | 44% | 34% |
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[A] | June 18–19, 2020 | 460 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 34% | 24% | 42% |
District 29 - Democratic
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tina Polsky |
Irving "Irv" Slosberg |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | August 14, 2020 | 477 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 37% | 13% |
District 39 - Democratic
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Javier E. Fernandez |
Daniel "Dan" Horton-Diaz |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | August 1–2, 2020 | 203 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 24% | 16% | 61% |
Retiring incumbents
[edit]Democrats
[edit]- 3rd district: Bill Montford (term-limited)
- 29th district: Kevin Rader (retiring)
- 35th district: Oscar Braynon (term-limited)
Republicans
[edit]- 5th district: Rob Bradley (term-limited)
- 9th district: David H. Simmons (term-limited)
- 21st district: Bill Galvano (term-limited)
- 27th district: Lizbeth Benacquisto (term-limited)
- 39th district: Anitere Flores (term-limited)
General election polling
[edit]District 3
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Loranne Ausley (D) |
Marva Preston (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | October 17–18, 2020 | 948 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% |
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[B] | October 15, 2020 | 503 (V) | – | 48% | 40% | – |
District 9
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jason Brodeur (R) |
Patricia Sigman (D) |
Jestine Ianotti (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 49% | 2% | 7% |
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | October 17–18, 2020 | 490 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 52% | – | 5% |
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[C] | October 16, 2020 | 400 (V) | – | 42% | 42% | – | – |
District 20
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Danny Burgess (R) |
Kathy Lewis (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics | October 24–25, 2020 | 644 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 44% | 12% |
District 37
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
José Javier Rodríguez (D) |
Ileana Garcia (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[D] | October 13, 2020 | 400 (V) | – | 42% | 37% |
District 39
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ana Maria Rodriguez (R) |
Javier Fernandez (D) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[E] | October 9, 2020 | 503 (V) | – | 43% | 43% |
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC | September 8–11, 2020 | – (V)[b] | – | 37% | 31% |
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC | July, 2020 | – (V)[c] | – | 31% | 28% |
Results
[edit]District 1 • District 3 • District 5 • District 7 • District 9 • District 11 • District 13 • District 15 • District 17 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 23 • District 25 • District 27 • District 29 • District 31 • District 35 • District 37 • District 39 |
District 1
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Douglas V. Broxson | 185,380 | 65.3% | |
Democratic | Karen M. Butler | 98,407 | 34.7% | |
Total votes | 293,787 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 3
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Loranne Ausley | 137,609 | 53.4% | |
Republican | Marva Harris Preston | 120,176 | 46.6% | |
Total votes | 257,785 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 5
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jennifer Bradley | 194,198 | 74.8% | |
Democratic | Stacey L. Peters | 65,568 | 25.2% | |
Total votes | 259,766 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 7
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Travis J. Hutson | 212,577 | 61.7% | |
Democratic | Heather Hunter | 131,763 | 38.3% | |
Independent | Richard Dembinsky (Write in) | 13 | 0.0% | |
Total votes | 344,353 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 9
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
Jason Brodeur | Patricia Sigman | |||||
1 | Oct. 6, 2020 | WESH | Greg Fox | YouTube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jason Brodeur | 141,544 | 50.3% | |
Democratic | Patricia Sigman | 133,900 | 47.6% | |
Independent | Jestine Iannotti | 5,787 | 2.1% | |
Total votes | 281,231 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 11
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Randolph Bracy | 147,244 | 65.0% | |
Republican | Joshua Eli Adams | 79,224 | 35.0% | |
Total votes | 226,468 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 13
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Linda Stewart | 152,769 | 60.6% | |
Republican | Josh Anderson | 99,134 | 39.4% | |
Total votes | 251,903 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 15
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Victor M. Torres | 180,185 | 57.1% | |
Republican | Louis T. Minnis | 123,153 | 39.0% | |
Independent | Mike James | 12,207 | 3.9% | |
Total votes | 315,545 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 17
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Debbie Mayfield | 193,560 | 60.6% | |
Democratic | Scot Fretwell | 114,515 | 35.9% | |
Independent | Phillip Snyder | 11,323 | 3.5% | |
Total votes | 319,398 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 19
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Darryl Ervin Rouson | 174,343 | 68.7% | |
Independent | Christina Paylan | 79,463 | 31.3% | |
Total votes | 253,806 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 20
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Danny Burgess | 141,607 | 54.8% | |
Democratic | Kathy Lewis | 116,685 | 45.2% | |
Total votes | 258,292 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 21
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jim Boyd | 191,673 | 61.0% | |
Democratic | Anthony "Tony" Eldon | 122,480 | 39.0% | |
Total votes | 314,153 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 23
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joe Gruters | 188,126 | 57.7% | |
Democratic | Katherine Norman | 131,491 | 40.3% | |
Independent | Robert Kaplan | 6,696 | 2.1% | |
Total votes | 326,313 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 25
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Gayle Harrell | 168,063 | 58.7 | |
Democratic | Corinna Robinson | 118,211 | 41.3 | |
Total votes | 286,274 | 100.0 | ||
Republican hold |
District 27
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ray Rodrigues | 176,954 | 60.5% | |
Democratic | Rachel Brown | 115,537 | 39.5% | |
Total votes | 292,491 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
District 29
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tina Polsky | 156,441 | 55.7% | |
Republican | Brian Norton | 124,502 | 44.3% | |
Total votes | 280,943 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 31
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Lori Berman | 156,495 | 62.2% | |
Republican | Tami Donnally | 95,019 | 37.8% | |
Total votes | 251,514 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 35
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Shevrin "Shev" Jones | 188,942 | 99.7% | |
Independent | Darien Hill (Write in) | 590 | 0.3% | |
Total votes | 189,532 | 100% | ||
Democratic hold |
District 37
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ileana Garcia | 104,630 | 48.53% | |
Democratic | José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent) | 104,598 | 48.51% | |
Independent | Alex Rodriguez | 6,382 | 2.96% | |
Total votes | 215,610 | 100% | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
District 39
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ana Maria Rodriguez | 123,556 | 55.6% | |
Democratic | Javier E. Fernandez | 95,135 | 42.8% | |
Independent | Celso D. Alfonso | 3,639 | 1.6% | |
Total votes | 222,330 | 100% | ||
Republican hold |
Notes
[edit]- Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
- ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
- ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
- ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
- ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
- ^ "Florida 2020 General Election".
- ^ Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
- ^ Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
- ^ Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
- ^ Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
- ^ "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
- ^ "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
- ^ "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
- ^ "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.
External links
[edit]- Florida Elections Commission government website
- "League of Women Voters of Florida". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Florida at Ballotpedia
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Florida", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Florida: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "Florida 2019 & 2020 Elections", OpenSecrets