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2020 Florida Senate election

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2020 Florida Senate election

← 2018 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2022 →

20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate
21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.62%
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Wilton Simpson Audrey Gibson
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since November 26, 2018 November 19, 2018
Leader's seat 10th-Trilby 6th-Jacksonville
Last election 23 seats, 53.99% 17 seats, 45.74%
Seats won 24 16
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,663,076 2,642,318
Percentage 49.03% 48.65%
Swing Decrease 4.96% Increase 2.91%

Results:
     Republican gain
     Republican hold      Democratic hold
     No election

President before election

Bill Galvano
Republican

Elected President

Wilton Simpson
Republican

The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.[1]

The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date.[2]

Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light,[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez.[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.[5]

Competitive races

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The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.[6][7]

2016 Presidential Results[8] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate district Clinton 2016 vote share Trump 2016 vote share 2020 Democratic nominee 2020 Republican nominee
District 3 52.60% Clinton 43.95% Trump Loranne Ausley Marva Harris Preston
District 9 45.98% Clinton 49.87% Trump Patricia Sigman Jason Brodeur
District 20 43.99% Clinton 52.28% Trump Kathy Lewis Danny Burgess
District 37 59.55% Clinton 37.89% Trump José Javier Rodríguez Ileana Garcia
District 39 53.74% Clinton 43.49% Trump Javier Fernandez Ana Maria Rodriguez

Overview

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Party Votes % Seats
Total
before
Up Won Total
after
+/−
Republican Party of Florida 2,663,076 49.03 23 10 11 24 +1
Florida Democratic Party 2,642,318 48.65 17 10 9 16 -1
Independent 125,497 2.31 0 0 0 0 -
Write-in 603 0.01 0 0 0 0 -
Total 5,431,494 100.00 40 20 20 40 ±0
Source: Florida Division of Elections[9][10]
Popular vote
Republican
49.03%
Democratic
48.65%
Other
2.32%
House seats
Republican
60%
Democratic
40%

Closest races

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Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. District 37, 0.02% gain
  2. District 9, 2.7%
  3. District 3, 6.8%
  4. District 20, 9.6%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean R October 21, 2020

Primary election polling

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District 27 - Republican

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Heather
Fitzhagen
Ray
Rodriguez
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics July 28, 2020 463 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 59% 23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[A] July 20, 2020 1,229 (LV) ± 3% 22% 44% 34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[A] June 18–19, 2020 460 (LV) ± 4.5% 34% 24% 42%

District 29 - Democratic

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Tina
Polsky
Irving "Irv"
Slosberg
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics August 14, 2020 477 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 37% 13%

District 39 - Democratic

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Javier E.
Fernandez
Daniel "Dan"
Horton-Diaz
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics August 1–2, 2020 203 (LV) ± 6.9% 24% 16% 61%

Retiring incumbents

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Democrats

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Republicans

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General election polling

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District 3

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Loranne
Ausley (D)
Marva
Preston (R)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 17–18, 2020 948 (LV) 51% 44% 5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[B] October 15, 2020 503 (V) 48% 40%

District 9

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Brodeur (R)
Patricia
Sigman (D)
Jestine
Ianotti (I)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 31 – November 1, 2020 522 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 49% 2% 7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 17–18, 2020 490 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 52% 5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[C] October 16, 2020 400 (V) 42% 42%

District 20

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Danny
Burgess (R)
Kathy
Lewis (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics October 24–25, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%

District 37

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
José Javier
Rodríguez (D)
Ileana
Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[D] October 13, 2020 400 (V) 42% 37%

District 39

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ana Maria
Rodriguez (R)
Javier
Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[E] October 9, 2020 503 (V) 43% 43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC September 8–11, 2020 – (V)[b] 37% 31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC July, 2020 – (V)[c] 31% 28%

Results

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District 1District 3District 5District 7District 9District 11District 13District 15District 17District 19District 20District 21District 23District 25District 27District 29District 31District 35District 37District 39

[12]

District 1

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Douglas V. Broxson 185,380 65.3%
Democratic Karen M. Butler 98,407 34.7%
Total votes 293,787 100%
Republican hold

District 3

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Loranne Ausley 137,609 53.4%
Republican Marva Harris Preston 120,176 46.6%
Total votes 257,785 100%
Democratic hold

District 5

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jennifer Bradley 194,198 74.8%
Democratic Stacey L. Peters 65,568 25.2%
Total votes 259,766 100%
Republican hold

District 7

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Travis J. Hutson 212,577 61.7%
Democratic Heather Hunter 131,763 38.3%
Independent Richard Dembinsky (Write in) 13 0.0%
Total votes 344,353 100%
Republican hold

District 9

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2020 Florida's 9th State Senate district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jason Brodeur Patricia Sigman
1 Oct. 6, 2020 WESH Greg Fox YouTube P P
Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Brodeur 141,544 50.3%
Democratic Patricia Sigman 133,900 47.6%
Independent Jestine Iannotti 5,787 2.1%
Total votes 281,231 100%
Republican hold

District 11

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Randolph Bracy 147,244 65.0%
Republican Joshua Eli Adams 79,224 35.0%
Total votes 226,468 100%
Democratic hold

District 13

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Linda Stewart 152,769 60.6%
Republican Josh Anderson 99,134 39.4%
Total votes 251,903 100%
Democratic hold

District 15

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Victor M. Torres 180,185 57.1%
Republican Louis T. Minnis 123,153 39.0%
Independent Mike James 12,207 3.9%
Total votes 315,545 100%
Democratic hold

District 17

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Mayfield 193,560 60.6%
Democratic Scot Fretwell 114,515 35.9%
Independent Phillip Snyder 11,323 3.5%
Total votes 319,398 100%
Republican hold

District 19

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Darryl Ervin Rouson 174,343 68.7%
Independent Christina Paylan 79,463 31.3%
Total votes 253,806 100%
Democratic hold

District 20

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Danny Burgess 141,607 54.8%
Democratic Kathy Lewis 116,685 45.2%
Total votes 258,292 100%
Republican hold

District 21

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Boyd 191,673 61.0%
Democratic Anthony "Tony" Eldon 122,480 39.0%
Total votes 314,153 100%
Republican hold

District 23

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Gruters 188,126 57.7%
Democratic Katherine Norman 131,491 40.3%
Independent Robert Kaplan 6,696 2.1%
Total votes 326,313 100%
Republican hold

District 25

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gayle Harrell 168,063 58.7
Democratic Corinna Robinson 118,211 41.3
Total votes 286,274 100.0
Republican hold

District 27

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ray Rodrigues 176,954 60.5%
Democratic Rachel Brown 115,537 39.5%
Total votes 292,491 100%
Republican hold

District 29

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tina Polsky 156,441 55.7%
Republican Brian Norton 124,502 44.3%
Total votes 280,943 100%
Democratic hold

District 31

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lori Berman 156,495 62.2%
Republican Tami Donnally 95,019 37.8%
Total votes 251,514 100%
Democratic hold

District 35

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Shevrin "Shev" Jones 188,942 99.7%
Independent Darien Hill (Write in) 590 0.3%
Total votes 189,532 100%
Democratic hold

District 37

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ileana Garcia 104,630 48.53%
Democratic José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent) 104,598 48.51%
Independent Alex Rodriguez 6,382 2.96%
Total votes 215,610 100%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 39

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Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez 123,556 55.6%
Democratic Javier E. Fernandez 95,135 42.8%
Independent Celso D. Alfonso 3,639 1.6%
Total votes 222,330 100%
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Not yet released
  3. ^ Not yet released
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
  2. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
  3. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  2. ^ "Florida 2020 General Election".
  3. ^ Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ^ Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  5. ^ Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  6. ^ Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  7. ^ Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  8. ^ "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  9. ^ "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.
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