Wikipedia

2024 New Brunswick general election

The 2024 New Brunswick general election was held on October 21, 2024, where 49 members were elected to the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. It was formally called upon the dissolution of the 60th New Brunswick Legislature on September 19, 2024.[2]

2024 New Brunswick general election
← 2020 October 21, 2024 Next →
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout66.1% (Decrease 0.04 pp)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Susan Holt Blaine Higgs David Coon
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative Green
Leader since August 6, 2022 October 22, 2016 September 22, 2012
Leader's seat Fredericton South-Silverwood[a] Quispamsis
(defeated) 		Fredericton-Lincoln[b]
Last election 17 seats, 34.35% 27 seats, 39.34% 3 seats, 15.24%
Seats before 16 25 3
Seats won 31 16 2
Seat change Increase15 Decrease9 Decrease 1
Popular vote 180,803 131,329 51,558
Percentage 48.24% 35.04% 13.76%
Swing Increase13.89% Decrease4.30% Decrease1.48%
Premier before election

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Susan Holt
Liberal

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick (PC) government, led by Premier Blaine Higgs since 2018, sought re-election to a third consecutive term. The party was defeated by the New Brunswick Liberal Association, led by Susan Holt, with them set to form a majority government in a landslide victory. Higgs was defeated in his own riding of Quispamsis, the first time since 1987 that a sitting New Brunswick Premier lost in their own riding. Upon taking office, Holt became the first woman premier of New Brunswick.

2023 redistribution

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The Electoral Boundaries and Representation Commission is obliged after every second general election to investigate and report whether boundary adjustments are required to the Province's constituencies.[3] It was required to ensure that revised constituencies have populations that fall within 25% of the determined electoral quotient, and it made its report with recommendations in March 2023.[4]

Objections were raised as to the alignments proposed for Shediac-Cap-Acadie and Tantramar, specifically with respect to the eastern portion of Cap-Acadie (a francophone-majority town) having been placed in the latter,[5] and special legislation was passed to allow a variance in the proposed boundaries.[6]

The following changes took effect:

Abolished New
Renaming of constituencies
Abolition of constituencies
Drawn from other constituencies
Merger of constituencies
Reorganization of constituencies
  1. ^ from parts of Moncton East, Shediac Bay-Dieppe, Kent South and Moncton Northwest.
  2. ^ from parts of Tracadie-Sheila, Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou and Caraquet.

Of the 49 constituencies, 17 have Francophone majorities:[4]

Background

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The Legislative Assembly Act was amended in 2017 to provide that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October;[7] the election still must be held on a Monday if called sooner.[8]

Minor party deregistrations and registrations

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On October 31, 2020, after failing to nominate ten candidates in the 2020 election, the KISS NB was deregistered.[9]

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives explaining they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.[10][11] Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue which were criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick.[11] The Peoples Alliance was deregistered on March 31, 2022, but re-registered by interim leader Rick DeSaulniers in May 2022.[12][13][14]

The Libertarian Party of New Brunswick was registered in July 2024, and put forward candidates in 18 ridings.[15][16]

In September 2024, the Social Justice Party of New Brunswick and the Consensus NB Party were created, however both failed to nominate at least 10 candidates as required to maintain party status and each will be deregistered following the 2024 election.[17][18]

Current standings

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Standings in the 60th Legislature of New Brunswick
Affiliation Assembly members
2020 election results Current
Progressive Conservative 27 25
Liberal 17 16
Green 3 3
People's Alliance 2 0
Independent 0 1
Vacant 4
Total members 49 45
Total seats 49 49

Summary of seat changes

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Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin August 17, 2021 Jake Stewart █ PC Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election (Stewart was elected). June 20, 2022 Mike Dawson █ PC
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Lisa Harris █ Liberal Réjean Savoie █ PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake March 30, 2022 Kris Austin █ People's Allnc. Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party. █ PC
Miramichi Michelle Conroy █ People's Allnc. Changed affiliation. █ PC
Fredericton West-Hanwell October 16, 2022 Dominic Cardy █ PC Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role. █ Independent
Dieppe October 21, 2022 Roger Melanson █ Liberal Resigned to head to the private sector. April 24, 2023 Richard Losier █ Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur November 27, 2022 Daniel Guitard █ Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. Marco LeBlanc █ Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore November 27, 2022 Denis Landry █ Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. Susan Holt █ Liberal
Saint John Harbour February 8, 2024[19] Arlene Dunn █ PC Resigned.
Portland-Simonds April 30, 2024[20] Trevor Holder █ PC Resigned.
Hampton April 30, 2024[20] Gary Crossman █ PC Resigned.
Albert June 20, 2024[21][22] Mike Holland █ PC Resigned (after final legislative session).

Issues

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Education

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New Brunswick has been experiencing major education shortcomings during the 2020s, with the province experiencing massive shortages in teachers and school psychologists,[23][24] along with school bus drivers in some areas. Schools throughout the province have also reported exceptionally low child literacy rates, with a 2021–22 report concluding that literacy standards were not met by around 40% of the province's fourth grade students, the lowest it has been in 18 years.[25] Kelly Lamrock, the New Brunswick Child and Youth advocate, further reported that child literacy rates had declined by 29% over the past decade.[26] After being released in November 2023, the 2022–23 report for fourth grade student literacy rates showed further decline, with 43.4% scoring "below appropriate achievement" after being assessed for English reading.[27]

In late 2023, the New Brunswick Teachers' Association (NBTA) called for the provincial government to address concerns raised from an internal survey of its members. Among the concerns noted were "understaffed classrooms and overcrowded buildings, with uncertified community members, people without a bachelor of education, sometimes taking the place of actual teachers because of shortages." Many of the 2,916 survey participants reported teaching in overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools, with half also experiencing verbal and physical abuse. Those who called for these issues to be addressed included Liberal leader Susan Holt as well as Kevin Arseneau, a Green MLA for Kent North.[28]

In May 2024, the NBTA projected over 1,200 anglophone teachers that will be eligible for retirement within the next five years, with Peter Lagacy, the NBTA president, adding that this is "an alarming number when we look at how many we have coming into the system."[29]

Staff shortages

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New Brunswick's public school system has been notably experiencing shortages in teachers,[30][31] school psychologists and, in certain areas, bus drivers.[32]

While proposing changes for Policy 713, Higgs proposed for "extra counsellors, extra support." According to figures from November 2023, however, the number of school psychologists dropped; out of a total of 28 "full-time equivalent" school psychologist positions filled throughout the province, only six served the province's English school system of approximately 73,000 students.[23]

School busing shortcomings

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An audit which took place between January and February in 2024 concluded that the provincial Department of Education "lacks oversight on school bus safety and driver requirements."[33] Using a sample size of 65 bus drivers out of a total of around 1,300, the audit reported that 46% of New Brunswick's school bus drivers had ineligible licensing requirements. Additionally, 20% were hired without checking for criminal records, and further percentages of bus drivers had no evidence of bus training (37%) and first aid training (42%). The audit also conducted vehicle inspections on a number of buses, with 45% having deficiencies.[34][35] Francine Landry, the Liberal MLA for Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston, criticized the provincial government led by Higgs for "touting their record on keeping children safe, while failing to fulfil the most basic requirements for doing so." Education Minister Bill Hogan responded, saying that "clearly there's some work to be done in that area in making sure that they're inspected on time."[33]

Policy 713

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Main article: Policy 713

Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led to the government becoming involved in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post,[36] The New York Times,[37] and BBC.[38]

Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election."[39]

Healthcare

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Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos,"[40] with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients,[41] excessively long waiting times,[42] and health workers experiencing burnout.[43] During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog."[44] In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent.[45]

Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding.[46]

According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health.[47]

During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounting to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general.[48]

Both the Liberal and Green parties made promises to re-launch research efforts into the province's mysterious neurological disease upon forming majority government.[49]

Housing

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Since 2019, housing prices have nearly doubled in New Brunswick. In home prices, the province marked the highest percentage of increases compared to the rest of the Canadian provinces and territories.[50] New Brunswick has also seen major increases in homelessness within its communities and cities, with Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton collectively experiencing an 80% increase in homelessness between 2021 and 2023.[51] Housing critics have claimed that "landlords have almost all the power" in the province.[52]

Both the Liberal and Green parties have attempted to implement rent regulation in the province,[53] with the right to housing being highlighted by the Green Party legislative members, whether to consider it a human right or to push for rural area housing rights. During a legislative session on November 20, 2020, held shortly after the opening of the 60th legislature, Green Party leader David Coon introduced Bill 18, which would have made changes to the Residential Tenancies Act, including a cap on annual rent increases as well as ensuring that "rent can only be raised once a year for a tenant and not in their first year." At the time, New Brunswick was the only province that allowed for landlords to make multiple increases on rent each year. Coon added that "we need to ensure that tenants who cannot afford large increases in their rents are not left out in the cold without housing this winter."[52] After six months of debate, the bill was ultimately rejected after all Progressive Conservative and People's Alliance MLAs unanimously voted against it. The New Brunswick Coalition for Tenants Rights, who had criticized the proposed bill for "not going far enough," expressed disappointment in the government decision.[54]

In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 3.8% rent cap,[55] set to expire at the end of the year.[56] Opposition parties soon afterwards called for an extension on this cap, while it was opposed by the government.[57] Coon, saying that the government has not "gone far enough to eliminate loopholes that allow landlords to get around the government's temporary cap on rent increases," also made proposals to the provincial bill to address loopholes in this legislation, but faced rejection from the majority Progressive Conservatives.[58]

In December 2023, St. Stephen mayor Allan MacEachern declared a state of emergency due to an increase in homelessness after the recent death of a homeless person in the municipality; the declaration also accused the provincial government of failing to offer housing and social services.[59][60] Public Safety Minister Kris Austin terminated the declaration soon afterwards,[61] likening it to car accidents by saying that "people die all the time in car accidents, and we do not declare state of emergencies for that."[62] Austin also blamed "leftist agendas that are degrading our society" as well as the federal government for the issue.[63]

In June 2024, the provincial government quietly made changes to its renting policies, allowing for landlords to make annual rent increases for up to 4.7% for the next year starting in July 2024; this increase exceeds the current inflation rate.[64][65] Coon criticized this change, calling out Higgs as "caving to the lobbying of large corporate property owners."[66]

Out-of-province activities

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New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party.[67]

In August 2024, right-leaning lobbyist group Campaign Life Coalition mailed flyers to 160,000 homes in New Brunswick,[68] making the accusation that schools in the province are "pushing transgenderism".[69] Both Liberal and Green leaders condemned the flyers, with Higgs additionally having been urged to do so as well.[68]

Campaign

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Candidates by Party

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Party Leader[70] Candidates
Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs 49
Liberal Susan Holt 49
Green David Coon 46
New Democratic Alex White 23
Libertarian Keith Tays 18
People's Alliance Rick DeSaulniers 13
Independent 4
Consensus NB Len O'Brien 3
Social Justice Tanya Roberts 2
Candidate contests[71]
Number of nominated
candidates to appear
on the ballot		 Constituencies Party
PC Lib Grn NDP Ltn PANB Ind CNB SJP Totals
2 2 2 2 4
3 11 11 11 10 1 33
4 18 18 18 18 8 6 3 1 72
5 11 11 11 11 8 6 4 2 2 55
6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 1 1 36
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
Total 49 49 49 46 23 18 13 4 3 2 207

Progressive Conservative

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In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election.[72] In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract.[73] The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually,[74] as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed."[73] Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government."[75]

Jacques Poitras of CBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing."[73]

The Progressive Conservative party launched their re-election campaign at a Quispamsis church on September 19, 2024.[76] Blaine Higgs received critical attention for telling a joke about a deceased Liberal voter at the end of his campaign launch speech,[77] with Susan Holt describing it as "a complete lack of judgment on the premier's part".[78] David Coon additionally criticized the joke, stating that "to call it a joke would suggest it was funny, and there was nothing funny about it".[79]

The Progressive Conservative campaign has consisted of promoting its promise to lower the harmonized sales tax (HST) from 15% to 13%,[80] and highlighting the fiscal surpluses under their government. The campaign has also promoted fears of an elected Liberal government taking the province "back into the red",[81] referring to the consecutive deficits under the previous Liberal government, during which Susan Holt served as senior economic development advisor to then-Premier Brian Gallant.[82]

The Progressive Conservatives released their campaign platform on October 12, 2024.[83]

Liberal

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Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads."[84]

When asked by Brunswick News about her summer campaign plans, Holt shared plans of touring around the province and stopping by each riding, with 207 "touchpoints" with "festivals and celebrations," while also focusing on her home riding.[8]

The Liberal party officially launched their election campaign in Fredericton on September 8, 2024.[85]

The Liberals released their campaign platform on October 3, 2024.[86] The platform's costing table was flagged by media and criticized by the Progressive Conservatives for a seeming mistake that resulted in counting a portion of HST revenue twice.[87][88] The error suggests that instead of a net surplus of $549million over five years, the platform's implementation would result in a net deficit of over $1billion.[89]

Greens

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In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election resulted in the PCs losing their majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance.[90]

Coon, like Holt, was also asked by Brunswick News about his campaign plans for the summer; he shared that he, along with his deputies, Kevin Arseneau and Megan Mitton, are going to be "fanning out across the province, launching new candidates' campaigns that haven't been launched yet, and attending festivals and events, and generally holding our own events as well." Coon said that the largest issues that all Green candidates have noticeably heard are healthcare, along with "affordability and affordable housing," adding that "People want to see change. They want to see change that's for the better, not change back." Coon also highlighted a lack in rural development in the province, mentioning that "there's plenty of talk about communities losing services" in rural areas.[8]

The Green Party's fall campaign officially launched on September 18, 2024.[91] During his campaign launch speech, Coon confirmed that he will have a "wish list" ready to bring into negotiations with other parties, in anticipation of the Green Party not forming government and no other party getting a majority of seats. Higgs has compared the Greens potentially providing confidence to a Liberal government to the "coalition" between the Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party at the federal level, despite the Liberal-NDP arrangement being a confidence and supply agreement and not a coalition as it's usually defined.[92]

Debates

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On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV;[93] Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend.[94]

On September 25, 2024, a leaders' debate between Higgs, Holt, and Coon took place at the Capitol Theatre in Moncton. The debate was aired on CBC Television and was moderated by Clare MacKenzie and Jacques Poitras.[95]

On October 9, 2024, a leaders' debate between Holt, Coon, and Alex White took place at the Tom Morrison Theatre at Fredericton High School. Higgs and Rick DeSaulniers were invited but declined to attend. The debate was aired on Rogers TV and moderated by Andrew Holland.[96][97]

On October 11, 2024, a Forum "Women Count!" with the party leaders was organized by the NB Coalition for Equity Pay. Susan Holt, David Coon and Alex White were present. Higgs declined the invitation. They discussed women issues in the Province. The Forum was broadcast on Rogers TV.

On October 16, 2024, a leaders' roundtable will be held at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, hosted by CTV Atlantic.[98]

Opinion polls

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Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link PC Liberal Green PA NDP Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Election 2024 October 21, 2024 HTML 35.04 48.24 13.76 0.87 1.30 — — — 13.20
Forum Research October 20, 2024 [p 1] 37.1 45.7 10.7 2.0 2.7 ±3.0 pp 2,428 IVR 8.6
Mainstreet Research October 19, 2024 [p 2] 38 48 10 1 - ±3.6 pp 724 Smart IVR 10
Mainstreet Research October 3, 2024 [p 3] 37 44 14 2 - ±3.3 pp 906 Smart IVR 7
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 4] 39 41 13 4 - ±4.0 pp 609 Smart IVR 2
Narrative Research August 17, 2024 [p 5] 33 44 17 1 4 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 11
Nanos Research July 31, 2024 [p 6] 36 36 14 5 10 ±4.7 pp 447 telephone/online 0
Narrative Research May 30, 2024 [p 7] 34 37 13 1 13 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 3
Narrative Research February 22, 2024 [p 8] 34 40 15 2 8 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 6
Narrative Research November 27, 2023 [p 9] 35 41 10 2 13 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 6
Narrative Research August 21, 2023 [p 10] 36 38 16 1 8 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 2
Narrative Research May 17, 2023 [p 11] 34 34 19 2 10 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 0
Narrative Research February 25, 2023 [p 12] 37 35 17 2 9 ±4.6 pp 450 telephone 2
Leger December 23, 2022 [p 13] 22 40 15 9 12 ±4.4 pp 500 online 18
Narrative Research November 27, 2022 [p 14] 30 39 18 2 10 ±4.0 pp 611 telephone 9
Narrative Research August 24, 2022 [p 15] 30 41 14 5 11 ±4.2 pp 525 telephone 11
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022)
Angus Reid June 13, 2022 [p 16] 31 36 14 5 13 ±6.0 pp 247 online 5
Narrative Research May 19, 2022 [p 17] 34 34 17 4 9 ±4.0 pp 607 telephone 0
Nanos Research April 11, 2022 [p 18] 36.6 38.8 14.2 1.2 8.6 ±4.8 pp 423 online/telephone 2.2
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022)
Angus Reid March 15, 2022 [p 19] 31 32 15 13 9 ±6.0 pp 251 online 1
Narrative Research February 27, 2022 [p 20] 34 31 16 5 11 ±4.2 pp 545 telephone 3
Angus Reid January 10, 2022 [p 21] 26 37 16 10 8 ±7.0 pp 216 online 11
MQO Research December 14, 2021 [p 22] 29 36 16 5 11 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research November 24, 2021 [p 23] 28 38 14 5 13 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone 10
Stratcom November 6, 2021 [p 24] 20.5 39.8 17.9 12.0 - ±2.8 pp 1,184 IVR 19.3
Angus Reid October 3, 2021 [p 25] 31 31 12 12 13 ±2.0 pp 265 online 0
Narrative Research August 17, 2021 [p 26] 33 29 22 5 11 ±2.0 pp 604 telephone 4
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 [p 27] 36 31 17 12 4 ±2.0 pp 248 online 5
Narrative Research May 31, 2021 [p 28] 39 28 18 6 8 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 11
MQO Research March 18, 2021 [p 29] 38 31 17 5 6 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research February 17, 2021 [p 30] 35 32 20 6 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 3
Narrative Research November 22, 2020 [p 31] 41 28 20 4 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 13
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020)
Election 2020 September 14, 2020 HTML 39.34 34.35 15.24 9.19 1.66 — — — 4.99

Candidates

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Retiring incumbents
Affiliation[a 1] MLA Constituency Held office
since
  PC Daniel Allain[99][100] Moncton East 2020
Andrea Anderson-Mason[101] Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West 2018
Jeff Carr[100] New Maryland-Sunbury 2014
Bruce Fitch[102] Riverview 2003
Dorothy Shephard[103] Saint John Lancaster 2010
Ross Wetmore[104] Gagetown-Petitcodiac[a 2] 2014
Liberal Richard Losier[105] Dieppe 2023
Independent Dominic Cardy[a 3][106] Fredericton West-Hanwell 2018
  1. ^ At dissolution
  2. ^ Previously MLA for Grand Lake-Gagetown (2010–2014)
  3. ^ Originally elected under the PC banner
Abbreviations
Legend

NOTE: Candidates' names are as registered with Elections New Brunswick[107]
bold denotes party leader
† denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
# denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northern

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
PC Liberal Green NDP Libertarian
Restigouche West Diane Cyr
1,733 		Gilles LePage
3,993 		Myriam Cormier
380 		Ronald Geraghty
116 		Gilles LePage
Restigouche East Normand Pelletier
2,271 		Guy H. Arseneault
3,590 		Gilles Cormier
389 		Daisy Petersen
501 		Guy Arseneault
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Belle-Baie-Belledune Louis Robichaud
1,254 		Marco LeBlanc
5,053 		Rachel Boudreau
1,411 		Tyler (Ty) Boulay
293 		Marco LeBlanc
Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst Kim Chamberlain
2,029 		René Legacy
3,357 		Robert Kryszko
325 		Jeff Frenette
212 		René Legacy
Bathurst West-Beresford
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit Jason Purdy
1,454 		Luc Robichaud
4,675 		Susan Holt
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet Jean Paul Lanteigne
719 		Isabelle Thériault
6,002 		Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Les-Îles François Robichaud
530 		Eric Mallet
5,021 		Wilfred Roussel
1,111 		Eric Mallet
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie Gertrude McLaughlin
537 		Keith Chiasson
5,030 		Serge Brideau
3,829 		Keith Chiasson
Tracadie-Sheila

Miramichi and Kent

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive Conservative Liberal Green PANB Other
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Rejean Savoie
3,146 		Sam Johnston
4,219 		Wayne Hitchcock
711 		Réjean Savoie
Miramichi East Michelle Conroy
3,633 		Veronique Arsenault
2,921 		Josh Shaddick
355 		Tom L'Huillier
236 		Michelle Conroy
Miramichi
Miramichi West Mike Dawson
3,814 		Mark Hambrook
2,254 		Genevieve MacRae
273 		Rhonda L'Huillier
229 		Richard Sutherland (Ind.)
112 		Mike Dawson
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
Kent North Carl Cosby
1,441 		Pat Finnigan
3,928 		Kevin Arseneau
3,251 		Carole Boudreau
145 		Kevin Arseneau
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent Ann Bastarache
1,761 		Benoît Bourque
5,794 		Bernadette Morin
1,220 		Lenny O'Brien (CNB)
112 		Benoît Bourque
Kent South
Eddy Richard (Ltn.)
90

Southeastern

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Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive Conservative Liberal Green Libertarian Other
Shediac Bay-Dieppe René Ephestion
1,803 		Robert Gauvin
6,530 		Chantal Landry
1,254 		Robert Gauvin
Shediac-Cap-Acadie Christine Arseneault
1,322 		Jacques LeBlanc
5,438 		Jean Bourgeois
2,901 		Jacques LeBlanc
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé
Tantramar Bruce Phinney
1,166 		John Higham
1,276 		Megan Mitton
2,468 		Donna Allen
57 		Evelyne Godfrey (NDP)
84 		Megan Mitton
Memramcook-Tantramar
Dieppe-Memramcook Dean Léonard
1,311 		Natacha Vautour
5,600 		Jacques Giguère
1,531 		Richard Losier†
Dieppe
Moncton East Paolo (PJ) Andreetti
1,903 		Alexandre Cédric Doucet
4,449 		Diani Blanco
736 		Alex Gagne (NDP)
329 		Rob McKee‡
Moncton Centre
Moncton Centre Dave Melanson
1,738 		Rob McKee
3,501 		Sarah Colwell
711 		James Ryan (NDP)
242 		Sherry Wilson#
Moncton Southwest
Moncton South Greg Turner
2,229 		Claire Johnson
3,559 		Vincent Merola
900 		Greg Turner
Moncton Northwest Ernie Steeves
3,536 		Tania Sodhi
3,761 		Ana Santana
804 		Ernie Steeves
Champdoré-Irishtown Ricky Gautreau
2,450 		Lyne Chantal Boudreau
3,732 		Matthew Ian Clark
743 		Adam Hennessey
103 		Daniel Allain†[99]
Moncton East
Riverview Rob Weir
3,114 		Scott Grant
2,740 		Sarah Lord
1,978 		Rebecca Mallaley
69 		Desiree Despres (NDP)
128 		Bruce Fitch†
Albert-Riverview Sherry Wilson
4,363 		Dave Gouthro
2,599 		Liam MacDougall
972 		William Jones
97 		Sharon Buchanan (PANB)
297 		Vacant
Albert
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills Don Monahan
4,284 		Connie Larson
2,289 		Brian Boucher
1,093 		Anthony Matthews
149 		Ross Wetmore†[104]
Gagetown-Petitcodiac

Southern

edit
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive Conservative Liberal Green NDP Libertarian Other
Sussex-Three Rivers Tammy Scott-Wallace
3,789 		Bruce Northrup
3,282 		Teri McMackin
1,235 		Wayne Wheeler
159 		Tammy Scott-Wallace
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins Faytene Grasseschi
3,035 		John Herron
3,259 		Laura Myers
1,553 		Gordie Stackhouse
171 		Barbara Dempsey
120 		Peter Graham (PANB)
153 		Vacant
Hampton
Quispamsis Blaine Higgs
3,668 		Aaron Kennedy
3,861 		Andrew Conradi
378 		Alex White
360 		David Raymond Amos (Ind.)
42 		Blaine Higgs
Rothesay Hugh J. (Ted) Flemming
3,373 		Alyson Townsend
4,085 		Zara MacKay-Boyce
549 		Austin Venedam
85 		Ted Flemming
Saint John East Glen Savoie
3,181 		David Alston
3,147 		Gerald Irish
514 		Josh Floyd
252 		Denise Campbell
92 		Tanya Graham (PANB)
118 		Glen Savoie
Saint John Portland-Simonds Paul Dempsey
2,497 		John Dornan
3,546 		P.J. Duncan
438 		Bobby Martin[c]
162 		Vacant
Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour Adam Smith
1,563 		David Hickey
3,413 		Mariah Darling
715 		Kenneth Procter
228 		Shelley Craig
82 		Vacant
Saint John West-Lancaster Kim Costain
2,787 		Kate Elman Wilcott
3,525 		Joanna Killen
864 		Jane Ryan
330 		Sherie Vukelic
69 		Dorothy Shephard†
Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre Bill Oliver
3,821 		Brian Stephenson
2,557 		Bruce Dryer
1,136 		Crystal Tays
139 		Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville Ian Lee
3,971 		Patty Borthwick
2,052 		Rhonda Connell
346 		Chris Wanamaker
158 		Keith Tays
88 		Sharon Greenlaw (CNB)
113 		Andrea Anderson-Mason†
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
Saint Croix Kathy Bockus
3,271 		Troy Lyons
2,063 		Mark Groleau
1,442 		Bola Ademolu
90 		Krysten Mitchell
82 		Kris Booth (Ind.)
170 		Kathy Bockus
Alex Tessmann (PANB)
96

Capital Region

edit
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive Conservative Liberal Green PANB NDP Libertarian
Oromocto-Sunbury Mary E. Wilson
4,381 		Stephen Horsman
2,725 		Emerald Gibson
868 		Glenna Hanley
341 		Mary Wilson
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake Kris Austin
4,456 		Kevin Dignam
2,277 		Ken Washburn
862 		Rick DeSaulniers
461 		Arthur Taylor
195 		Kris Austin
Fredericton-Lincoln Daniel Chippin
2,307 		Joni Leger
2,244 		David Coon
3,646 		David Coon
Fredericton South
Fredericton South-Silverwood Nicolle Carlin
2,287 		Susan Holt
4,605 		Simon Ouellette
1,860 		Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane
165 		Dominic Cardy†
Fredericton West-Hanwell
Fredericton North Jill Green
2,753 		Luke Randall
4,130 		Anthea Plummer
922 		Glen Davis
107 		Matthew Stocek
120 		Andrew Vandette
46 		Jill Green
Fredericton-York Ryan Cullins
3,572 		Tanya Whitney
2,527 		Pam Allen-LeBlanc
1,673 		Michael Broderick
256 		Steven J. LaForest
133 		Ryan Cullins
Hanwell-New Maryland Judy Wilson-Shee
3,948 		Cindy Miles
4,006 		Susan Jonah
1,051 		Kris Hurtubise
177 		Joël Cyr LaPlante
119 		Meryl W. Sarty
67 		Jeff Carr†
New Maryland-Sunbury
Carleton-York
 Richard Ames
4,622 		Chris Duffie
2,136 		Burt Folkins
675 		Sterling Wright
415 		Richard Ames

Upper River Valley

edit
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Progressive Conservative Liberal Green NDP Other
Woodstock-Hartland Bill Hogan
4,199 		Marisa Pelkey
2,549 		Jada Roche
276 		Bo Sheaves
138 		Ernest Culberson (Ind.)
209 		Bill Hogan
Carleton
Charlie Webber (PANB)
575
Carleton-Victoria Margaret Johnson
4,798 		Julian Moulton
2,159 		Rebecca Blaevoet
451 		Tasha Rossignol (SJP)
290 		Margaret Johnson
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin Marc-André Ross
2,493 		Chuck Chiasson
4,976 		Dani McLean-Godbout
540 		Chuck Chiasson
Victoria-La Vallée
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières Roger Quimper
1,049 		Jean-Claude (JC) D'Amours
5,573 		Sylvain Gerald Voisine (SJP)
186 		Jean-Claude D'Amours
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston Michel Morin
1,970 		Francine Landry
4,798 		Alain Martel
218 		André Martin
114 		Richard Barahoga (CNB)
53 		Francine Landry

Results

edit
Main article: Results of the 2024 New Brunswick general election
See also: 61st New Brunswick Legislature

New Brunswick has 568,901 eligible voters. Advance polling took place on October 12 and 15, 2024.[108] On October 21, multiple news outlets projected a Liberal Majority government. The result was projected roughly 36 minutes after the polls closed. Susan Holt will become the first female premier in New Brunswick.[109] Premier Blaine Higgs lost his own seat in the riding of Quispamsis. Five other cabinet ministers were also defeated.

Initial count results[110]
 
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2024 2020 ± # % Change (pp)
Liberal Susan Holt 49 31 17   14 180,803 48.24  13.89
Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs 49 16 27   11 131,329 35.04   4.30
Green David Coon 46 2 3  1 51,558 13.76   1.48
New Democratic Alex White 23 0 0   4,865 1.30   0.36
People's Alliance Rick DeSaulniers 13 0 2   2 3,265 0.87   8.32
Libertarian Keith Tays 18 0 —   1,710 0.46 New
  Independent 4 0 0   533 0.14   0.04
Social Justice Tanya Roberts 2 0 —   476 0.13 New
Consensus NB Len O'Brien 3 0 —   278 0.07 New
Total 207 49 374,817 100.00%
Total valid votes 374,817

Synopsis of results

edit
2024 New Brunswick general election - synopsis of riding results[a 1]
Riding Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes[a 3]
2020 1st place Votes Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		2nd place Lib PC Green NDP PA Ind Other Total
 
Albert-Riverview New   PC 4,363 52.39% 1,764 21.18%   Lib 64.30% 2,599 4,363 972 – 297 – 97 8,328
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills   PC   PC 4,284 54.82% 1,995 25.53%   Lib 67.27% 2,289 4,284 1,093 – – – 149 7,815
Bathurst New   Lib 3,357 56.68% 1,328 22.42%   PC 60.41% 3,357 2,029 325 212 – – – 5,923
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent   Lib   Lib 5,794 64.54% 4,033 44.93%   PC 69.86% 5,794 1,761 1,220 – – – 202 8,977
Belle-Baie-Belledune New   Lib 5,053 63.08% 3,642 45.46%   Green 64.21% 5,053 1,254 1,411 293 – – – 8,011
Caraquet   Lib   Lib 6,002 89.30% 5,283 78.60%   PC 69.03% 6,002 719 – – – – – 6,721
Carleton-Victoria   PC   PC 4,798 62.33% 2,639 34.28%   Lib 59.96% 2,159 4,798 451 – – – 290 7,698
Carleton-York   PC   PC 4,622 58.89% 2,486 31.68%   Lib 68.24% 2,136 4,622 675 – 415 – – 7,848
Champdoré-Irishtown New   Lib 3,732 53.10% 1,282 18.24%   PC 68.64% 3,732 2,450 743 – – – 103 7,028
Dieppe-Memramcook New   Lib 5,600 66.33% 4,069 48.20%   Green 70.24% 5,600 1,311 1,531 – – – – 8,442
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières   Lib   Lib 5,573 81.86% 4,524 66.45%   PC 63.43% 5,573 1,049 – – – – 186 6,808
Fredericton-Lincoln New   Green 3,646 44.48% 1,339 16.34%   PC 69.61% 2,244 2,307 3,646 – – – – 8,197
Fredericton North   PC   Lib 4,130 51.13% 1,377 17.05%   PC 66.79% 4,130 2,753 922 120 107 – 46 8,078
Fredericton South-Silverwood New   Lib 4,605 51.64% 2,318 26.00%   PC 71.31% 4,605 2,287 1,860 165 – – – 8,917
Fredericton-Grand Lake   PA   PC 4,456 54.01% 2,179 26.41%   Lib 67.05% 2,277 4,456 862 195 461 – – 8,251
Fredericton-York   PC   PC 3,572 43.77% 1,045 12.80%   Lib 69.93% 2,527 3,572 1,673 133 256 – – 8,161
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville   PC   PC 3,971 59.02% 1,919 28.52%   Lib 65.27% 2,052 3,971 346 158 – – 201 6,728
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin   Lib   Lib 4,976 62.13% 2,483 31.00%   PC 62.35% 4,976 2,493 540 – – – – 8,009
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins   PC   Lib 3,259 39.31% 224 2.70%   PC 72.99% 3,259 3,035 1,553 171 153 – 120 8,291
Hanwell-New Maryland New   Lib 4,006 42.76% 58 0.62%   PC 74.97% 4,006 3,948 1,051 119 177 – 67 9,368
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit New   Lib 4,675 76.28% 3,221 52.55%   PC 63.65% 4,675 1,454 – – – – – 6,129
Kent North   Green   Lib 3,928 44.81% 677 7.72%   Green 67.99% 3,928 1,441 3,251 – 145 – – 8,765
Kings Centre   PC   PC 3,821 49.93% 1,264 16.52%   Lib 66.50% 2,557 3,821 1,136 – – – 139 7,653
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston   Lib   Lib 4,798 67.08% 2,828 39.54%   PC 64.96% 4,798 1,970 218 114 – – 53 7,153
Miramichi Bay-Neguac   Lib   Lib 4,219 52.24% 1,073 13.29%   PC 65.39% 4,219 3,146 711 – – – – 8,076
Miramichi East New   PC 3,633 50.85% 712 9.97%   Lib 71.13% 2,921 3,633 355 – 236 – – 7,145
Miramichi West New   PC 3,814 57.08% 1,560 23.35%   Lib 67.80% 2,254 3,814 273 – 229 112 – 6,682
Moncton Centre   Lib   Lib 3,501 56.54% 1,763 28.47%   PC 57.02% 3,501 1,738 711 242 – – – 6,192
Moncton East   PC   Lib 4,449 59.98% 2,546 34.33%   PC 60.31% 4,449 1,903 736 329 – – – 7,417
Moncton Northwest   PC   Lib 3,761 46.43% 225 2.78%   PC 65.77% 3,761 3,536 804 – – – – 8,101
Moncton South   PC   Lib 3,559 53.21% 1,330 19.89%   PC 59.13% 3,559 2,229 900 – – – – 6,688
Oromocto-Sunbury New   PC 4,381 52.69% 1,656 19.92%   Lib 63.05% 2,725 4,381 868 341 – – – 8,315
Quispamsis   PC   Lib 3,861 46.47% 193 2.32%   PC 74.26% 3,861 3,668 378 360 – 42 – 8,309
Restigouche East New   Lib 3,590 53.18% 1,319 19.54%   PC 68.87% 3,590 2,271 389 501 – – – 6,751
Restigouche West   Lib   Lib 3,993 64.18% 2,260 36.32%   PC 62.56% 3,993 1,733 380 – – – 116 6,222
Riverview   PC   PC 3,114 38.78% 374 4.66%   Lib 66.99% 2,740 3,114 1,978 128 – – 69 8,029
Rothesay   PC   Lib 4,085 50.48% 712 8.80%   PC 72.82% 4,085 3,373 549 – – – 85 8,092
Saint Croix   PC   PC 3,271 45.34% 1,208 16.75%   Lib 62.32% 2,063 3,271 1,442 90 96 170 82 7,214
Saint John East   PC   PC 3,181 43.55% 34 0.47%   Lib 60.39% 3,147 3,181 514 252 118 – 92 7,304
Saint John Harbour   PC   Lib 3,413 56.87% 1,850 30.83%   PC 50.52% 3,413 1,563 715 228 – – 82 6,001
Saint John Portland-Simonds   PC   Lib 3,546 53.38% 1,049 15.79%   PC 56.12% 3,546 2,497 438 162 – – – 6,643
Saint John West-Lancaster   PC   Lib 3,525 46.53% 738 9.74%   PC 66.89% 3,525 2,787 864 330 – – 69 7,575
Shediac Bay-Dieppe   Lib   Lib 6,530 68.11% 4,727 49.31%   PC 69.61% 6,530 1,803 1,254 – – – – 9,587
Shediac-Cap-Acadie   Lib   Lib 5,438 56.29% 2,537 26.26%   Green 70.20% 5,438 1,322 2,901 – – – – 9,661
Shippagan-Les-Îles   Lib   Lib 5,021 75.37% 3,910 58.69%   Green 68.75% 5,021 530 1,111 – – – – 6,662
Sussex-Three Rivers   PC   PC 3,789 44.76% 507 5.99%   Lib 66.13% 3,282 3,789 1,235 – – – 159 8,465
Tantramar New   Green 2,468 48.86% 1,192 23.60%   Lib 61.53% 1,276 1,166 2,468 84 – – 57 5,051
Tracadie New   Lib 5,030 53.53% 1,201 12.78%   Green 74.70% 5,030 537 3,829 – – – – 9,396
Woodstock-Hartland   PC   PC 4,199 52.84% 1,650 20.77%   Lib 65.56% 2,549 4,199 276 138 575 209 – 7,946
  1. ^ "Unofficial Results". Elections New Brunswick. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  2. ^ Includes rejected ballots
  3. ^ Parties receiving more than 1% of the popular vote in either 2024 or 2020 are listed separately.
  = Francophone-majority constituency
  = Open seat
  = Turnout is above provincial average
  = Winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = Incumbent had switched allegiance
  = Previously incumbent in another riding
  = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = Incumbency arose from byelection gain
  = Other incumbents renominated
  = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = Multiple candidates

Notes

edit
  1. ^ Holt was the incumbent MLA for Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, but chose to run in her home riding of Fredericton South-Silverwood, newly created by redistribution.
  2. ^ Coon was the incumbent MLA for Fredericton South, but chose to run in Fredericton-Lincoln after his riding was dissolved by redistribution.
  3. ^ Withdrew.

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edit
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  68. ^ a b Nurse, Andrew (September 5, 2024). "The New Brunswick election is a referendum on Blaine Higgs's divisive conservatism". The Conversation. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  69. ^ Awde, Savannah (August 26, 2024). "Anti-abortion group sends flyers in support of N.B.'s parental rights policies". CBC News. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  70. ^ Butler, Nicholas (October 1, 2024). "Consolidated Registry" (PDF). Elections New Brunswick. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 2, 2024. Retrieved October 2, 2024.
  71. ^ "List of candidates". www1.gnb.ca. Elections New Brunswick. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  72. ^ Huras, Adam (November 12, 2023). "Who is Steve Outhouse? Higgs's new star campaign manager". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  73. ^ a b c Poitras, Jacques (April 11, 2024). "PC campaign manager joins Premier's Office, will earn taxpayer salary". CBC News. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  74. ^ Waugh, Andrew (April 25, 2024). "$20,776 a month: What NBers are paying Steve Outhouse". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
  75. ^ Poitras, Jacques (April 25, 2024). "Higgs defends hiring of Conservative consultants at taxpayer expense". CBC News. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  76. ^ Waugh, Andrew (September 19, 2024). "PCs to kick off election campaign tonight". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  77. ^ Waugh, Andrew (September 19, 2024). "Higgs ends campaign launch speech with 'joke' about dead Liberal voter". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  78. ^ Lau, Rebecca (September 20, 2024). "N.B. election: Higgs went to 'very dark place' with Liberal joke, opponent says". Global News. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  79. ^ "New Brunswick's Blaine Higgs has lowest approval of any premier in Canada, poll shows". The Globe and Mail. The Canadian Press. September 20, 2024. Retrieved September 21, 2024.
  80. ^ Cox, Aidan (July 18, 2024). "Higgs pledges to cut provincial sales-tax rate if re-elected". CBC News. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  81. ^ "The Liberal $6 Billion Question". www.pcnb.ca. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  82. ^ Mott, Sean (September 10, 2024). "Profile on Liberal leader Susan Holt". CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved October 12, 2024.
  83. ^ PCNB [@pcnbca] (October 12, 2024). "Our PCNB team will not try to buy your vote with 100 promises. [...]" (Tweet). Retrieved November 2, 2024 – via Twitter.
  84. ^ Poitras, Jacques (April 12, 2024). "N.B. Liberal Leader Holt keeps distance from Trudeau as election nears". CBC News. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  85. ^ Awde, Savannah (September 8, 2024). "Liberals launch official campaign ahead of election call". CBC News. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  86. ^ "Team Holt: Focused on You" (PDF). www.nbliberal.ca. New Brunswick Liberal Association. October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  87. ^ Poitras, Jacques (October 3, 2024). "Liberal platform contains no alternative to federal carbon tax". CBC News. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  88. ^ @poitrasCBC (October 3, 2024). "Interesting math in Liberal platform: table adds the $450m/yr from not doing the Higgs HST cut to the existing government revenue projections (from March budget) based on a 15 per cent HST, meaning that revenue's being counted twice" (Tweet). Retrieved October 4, 2024 – via Twitter.
  89. ^ @pcnbca (October 3, 2024). "Budgets don't balance themselves...and you can't just make up your own numbers, either" (Tweet). Retrieved October 4, 2024 – via Twitter.
  90. ^ Poitras, Jacques (September 28, 2023). "Green leader says he'd strike deal with Liberals to oust Higgs". CBC News. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  91. ^ Moore, Nick (September 18, 2024). "N.B. Green Party kicks off campaign with minority government musings". CTV Atlantic. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  92. ^ Poitras, Jacques (September 23, 2024). "Green leader now a target as Higgs raises spectre of 'coalition'". CTV News Atlantic. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  93. ^ Terry Seguin (May 28, 2024). New Brunswick Provincial Leaders' Debate on Health Care - May 28th, 2024. Rogers TV. Retrieved May 29, 2024 – via YouTube.
  94. ^ Waugh, Andrew (May 28, 2024). "Higgs a no-show for leaders' health-care debate". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
  95. ^ "New Brunswick Votes 2024: Leaders On The Record debate on Sept. 25". CBC News. September 20, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  96. ^ "2024 New Brunswick Leaders Debate". www1.youtube.com. October 9, 2024. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  97. ^ Perry, Brad (October 9, 2024). "Health care, housing dominate N.B. leaders debate". CHSJ-FM Country 94. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  98. ^ Price, Melanie (October 3, 2024). "CTV Atlantic to host leaders roundtable ahead of New Brunswick election". CTV Atlantic. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
  99. ^ a b Waugh, Andrew (March 1, 2024). "Daniel Allain, a Policy 713 rebel, won't reoffer for Tories". Telegraph Journal. Archived from the original on March 4, 2024. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  100. ^ a b Brown, Lauraw (March 1, 2024). "Another Tory MLA rules out running in upcoming election, fourth in one month". CTV Atlantic. Archived from the original on March 1, 2024. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  101. ^ Poitras, Jacques (May 24, 2024). "PC MLA Andrea Anderson-Mason is latest Higgs caucus member to leave politics". CBC News. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  102. ^ Poitras, Jacques (April 5, 2024). "Health Minister Bruce Fitch is latest PC minister to leave politics". CBC News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  103. ^ Poitras, Jacques (March 21, 2024). "Dorothy Shephard is latest PC MLA to leave politics". CBC News. Retrieved March 21, 2024.
  104. ^ a b "N.B. environment minister not seeking re-election, will call it quits after three terms". SaltWire. November 6, 2023. Archived from the original on March 4, 2024. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  105. ^ Chilibeck, John (May 28, 2024). "Once touted as possible health minister, rookie MLA says he's quitting". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  106. ^ Farley, Sam (September 22, 2023). "Dominic Cardy's new centrist party faces logistical challenges, says UNB prof". CBC News. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  107. ^ "List of Candidates". Elections New Brunswick. Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  108. ^ Huizinga, Raechel (October 13, 2024). "Thousands in New Brunswick cast ballots in Saturday's advance poll". CBC News. Retrieved October 15, 2024.
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  110. ^ "New Brunswick election results: Live numbers from the 2024 vote". Global News. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.

Opinion poll sources

edit
  1. ^ "Liberals set to win New Brunswick election". Forum Research. October 20, 2024. Retrieved October 21, 2024.
  2. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - New Brunswick" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 19, 2024. Retrieved October 20, 2024.
  3. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - New Brunswick" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 3, 2024. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  4. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - New Brunswick" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  5. ^ Huras, Adam (August 23, 2024). "Holt Liberals have lead two months ahead of election: new poll". Telegraph-Journal. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  6. ^ "New Brunswick's Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in dead heat" (PDF). Nanos Research. August 15, 2024. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
  7. ^ "Satisfaction with the performance of the provincial government is at a record low" (PDF). Narrative Research. June 6, 2024. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  8. ^ "NB: The Liberals lead in terms of voting intentions". Narrative Research. February 28, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  9. ^ "The Liberals edge slightly ahead in terms of voting intentions". Narrative Research. December 5, 2023. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  10. ^ "The PCs and Liberals are neck-and-neck in terms of voting intentions and leader support". Narrative Research. August 24, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  11. ^ "NB: The PCs and Liberals remain neck-in-neck in terms of voting intentions, with the Liberal Party leader most preferred as premier". Narrative Research. May 24, 2023. Retrieved May 24, 2023.
  12. ^ "NB: The PCs and Liberals are neck-in-neck in terms of voting intentions and leader support". Narrative Research. March 7, 2023. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
  13. ^ Poitras, Jacques (January 17, 2023). "N.B. premier takes political hit over immersion decision, poll suggests". CBC News. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
  14. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined, with a majority dissatisfied" (PDF). Narrative Research. December 1, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022.
  15. ^ Edmunds, Tal (August 30, 2022). "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has remained stable, with residents currently more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied". Narrative Research. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
  16. ^ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. July 2022.
  17. ^ Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined, with residents currently more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied., March 12, 2020, retrieved May 25, 2022
  18. ^ Nanos poll: Conservatives open "statistically significant" lead over Trudeau's Liberals | TREND LINE, April 27, 2022, retrieved April 28, 2022
  19. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022.
  20. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has partially rebounded after a decline at the end of 2021". Narrative Research. March 3, 2022. Retrieved March 4, 2022.
  21. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics". Angus Reid. January 2022.
  22. ^ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report New Brunswick" (PDF). MQO Research. December 2021.
  23. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined dramatically, reaching the lowest level in more than two decades". Narrative Research. November 30, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  24. ^ "New Brunswick Polling 2021 Public Service Workers Strike" (PDF). Stratcom. November 9, 2021.
  25. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments". Angus Reid. October 27, 2021.
  26. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government remains high despite continued downward trend over the last year". Narrative Research. September 22, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  27. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid. June 9, 2021.
  28. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the New Brunswick government's performance has declined, although it remains strong and above pre-pandemic levels". Narrative Research. June 3, 2021.
  29. ^ "Spring 2021 Provincial Report New Brunswick" (PDF). MQO Research. March 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 8, 2021.
  30. ^ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government continues to be high and remains well above pre-pandemic levels". Narrative Research. March 9, 2021.
  31. ^ "New Brunswick Voter Intentions" (PDF). Narrative Research. December 8, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021.
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