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2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Hawaii has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.65% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 366,130 196,864
Percentage 63.73% 34.27%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Hawaii was the first state in the 2020 election cycle to exceed the voter turnout in 2016, causing the state to attract attention as a representation of an overall trend in increased early voting during the general election.[4]

Biden won Hawaii with 63.7% of the vote, with a 29.5% margin over Trump, who earned 34.3%. Both major parties improved over 2016, when third parties earned nearly 8% of the vote; Biden's percentage of the vote was slightly higher than Hillary Clinton's 62.9%, while Trump improved over his 30.3% share of the 2016 vote. However, Biden's margin of victory was smaller than Clinton's 32.5%. Hawaii was one of three states where Biden won every county, the other two being Massachusetts and Rhode Island. It was the eighth consecutive election that the Democratic nominee carried every county in the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden had support in Hawaii across different ethnic groups, with 63% of whites and 66% of Asians voting for him.[5] Japanese Americans make up a large percentage of the Hawaiian population, and they are among the most Democratic constituencies.[6] However, Trump gained ground on Filipino Americans in the state.[7] Hawaii was the only state in which the electorate was majority non-white in 2020, with Whites comprising only 29% of the electorate.[5]

Primary elections

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Canceled Republican primary

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Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On December 11, 2019, the Hawaii Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[8] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking re-election in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[9][10] Because this was the first of the cancelled Republican state races to directly bind its delegates to the national convention (as opposed to a walking subcaucus-type system), Trump automatically was awarded his first 19 pledged delegates of the nomination campaign.[8][11]

Democratic primary

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Further information: 2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary

The Hawaii Democratic primary was originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 20, due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hawaii Democratic Party canceled in-person voting in favor of mail-in voting.[12] The deadline was then extended to May 22.[13]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]

The primary was conducted by ranked-choice voting. Voters were instructed to mark their top three choices on paper ballots. Any voter with a first choice other than Biden or Sanders had their ballot count in the final round if ranking one of those candidates as a second or third choice.

2020 Hawaii Democratic presidential primary[14][15]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Joe Biden 21,215 60.54 16
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 12,337 35.20 8
Void Votes 68 0.19
Inactive votes[a] 1,424 4.06
Total 35,044 100% 24

Green primary

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Green Party of Hawaii presidential primary, May 23, 2020[16]
Candidate Percentage National delegates
Dario Hunter 41.6% 2
Howie Hawkins 33.3% 2
Kent Mesplay 8.3% 0
Dennis Lambert 8.3% 0
Chad Wilson 8.3% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 0% 0
David Rolde 0% 0
No Preference 0% 0
Total 100.00% 4

General election

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Final predictions

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Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[17] Solid D
Inside Elections[18] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] Safe D
Politico[20] Solid D
RCP[21] Solid D
Niskanen[22] Safe D
CNN[23] Solid D
The Economist[24] Safe D
CBS News[25] Likely D
270towin[26] Safe D
ABC News[27] Solid D
NPR[28] Likely D
NBC News[29] Solid D
538[30] Solid D

Polling

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Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

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Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270 to Win[31] October 1–16, 2020 November 2, 2020 63.5% 30.5% 5.9% Biden +33.0
FiveThirtyEight[32] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 64.3% 30.0% 5.7% Biden +34.3
Average 63.8% 30.6% 5.6% Biden +33.2

Polls

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 688 (LV) ± 5% 31%[d] 67% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Oct 1–28, 2020 1,263 (LV) – 34% 63% - - – –
Mason-Dixon[34] Oct 12–14, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 29% 58% - - 5% 8%
MRG Research/Civil Beat/HNN[35] Oct 2–7, 2020 988 (RV) ± 3.1% 28% 61% - - 4%[e] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Sep 1–30, 2020 474 (LV) – 33% 66% - - – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Aug 1–31, 2020 362 (LV) – 37% 61% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Jul 1–31, 2020 356 (LV) – 37% 62% - - – 2%
MRG Research[36] Jul 27–30, 2020 975 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 56% - - 6%[f] 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[33] Jun 8–30, 2020 207 (LV) – 30% 67% - - – 3%

Results

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2020 United States presidential election in Hawaii[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		366,130 63.73 +0.85
Republican Donald Trump (incumbent)
Mike Pence (incumbent) 		196,864 34.27 +3.91
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		5,539 0.96 −2.80
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		3,822 0.67 −2.33
American Shopping Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		1,183 0.21 N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		931 0.16 −0.89
Total votes 574,469 100.0

By county

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County Joe Biden
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie Hawkins
Green 		Brock Pierce
American Shopping 		Don Blankenship
Constitution 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Hawaii 58,731 66.88% 26,897 30.63% 1,027 1.17% 805 0.92% 220 0.25% 134 0.15% 31,834 36.25% 87,814
Honolulu 238,869 62.51% 136,259 35.66% 3,437 0.90% 2,178 0.57% 741 0.19% 630 0.16% 102,610 26.85% 382,114
Kalawao 23 95.83% 1 4.17% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 22 91.66% 24
Kauai 21,225 63.36% 11,582 34.58% 303 0.90% 254 0.76% 77 0.23% 56 0.17% 9,643 28.78% 33,497
Maui 47,305 66.59% 22,126 31.14% 772 1.09% 585 0.82% 145 0.20% 111 0.16% 25,179 35.45% 71,044
Totals 366,130 63.73% 196,864 34.27% 5,539 0.96% 3,822 0.67% 1,183 0.21% 931 0.16% 169,266 29.46% 574,469
 
 

By congressional district

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Biden won both congressional districts in the state.[37]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 34.5% 63.8% Ed Case
2nd 34.1% 63.6% Tulsi Gabbard
Kai Kahele

Electors

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The Democratic Party of Hawaii selected the following individuals to cast Electoral College votes for Biden:[38]

  • John Bickel, a government and history teacher from Oahu
  • Mike Golojuch Sr. - an Air Force veteran and long-time Democratic activist from Oahu
  • Hermina "Mina" Morita - a retired state lawmaker from Kaua'i
  • Kainoa Kaumeheiwa-Rego - a community advocate for the Office of Hawaiian Affairs from Oahu

Analysis

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Hawaii was one of only six states and the District of Columbia where Trump's margin increased from 2016, and its 2.7% shift was the largest. Trump won more precincts than he did in 2016, winning more of the west coast of Oahu than he did before and every single vote on Niihau.[39] Trump won more votes in Hawaii than any Republican in history (but not a larger percentage), narrowly beating George W. Bush's performance in 2004.[40] Despite this modest pro-Trump margin swing, Biden received more votes than Clinton, as was the case for the five other states (California, Nevada, Utah, Arkansas, and Florida) and the District of Columbia that he won.[41]

Despite Biden's overwhelming victory in the state, this was the first election since 2004 in which Hawaii was not the most Democratic state in terms of margin or percentage; that title went to Vermont instead, with Massachusetts and Maryland also being ahead of Hawaii.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Votes which had all its 3 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Neither" with 4%
  6. ^ "Neither" with 6%

References

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  1. ^ a b "GENERAL ELECTION 2020 - State of Hawaii – Statewide November 3, 2020 **FINAL SUMMARY REPORT**" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 19, 2020. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics".
  5. ^ a b "Hawaii Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "Hawaii GOP cancels presidential preference poll, commits delegates to Trump". The Hill. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  9. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  10. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  11. ^ "Hawaii Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  12. ^ "Hawaii Democrats scrap in-person voting plan for primary". Associated Press. March 20, 2020.
  13. ^ "Party-run Presidential Primary UPDATE". Democratic Party of Hawaii. March 27, 2020. Archived from the original on March 28, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
  14. ^ "Hawaii Primary Election Results 2020". The New York Times. May 23, 2020. Retrieved May 24, 2020.
  15. ^ "Ranked-Choice Results" (PDF). Democratic Party of Hawai'i. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 7, 2020. Retrieved June 6, 2020.
  16. ^ "Green Party of Hawai'i Presidential Preference Poll Results". OPAVOTE. Green Party of Hawaii. Archived from the original on May 25, 2020. Retrieved May 26, 2020.
  17. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  21. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  22. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  23. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  24. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  27. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  28. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  29. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  31. ^ 270 to Win
  32. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  34. ^ Mason-Dixon
  35. ^ MRG Research/Civil Beat/HNN
  36. ^ MRG Research
  37. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".
  38. ^ "Hawaii's 4 electoral college members prepare to vote for Biden". Archived from the original on November 16, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  39. ^ Park, Alice; Smart, Charlie; Taylor, Rumsey; Watkins, Miles (February 2, 2021). "An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2020 Election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  40. ^ Jung, Yoohyun (November 6, 2020). "Biden Easily Won Hawaii But Data Shows Support For Trump Has Grown". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  41. ^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.

Further reading

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