Value scenarios: a technique for envisioning systemic effects of new technologies

Reviewer: John M. Artz

When a new technology comes along?for example, personal robots, virtual worlds, or human cloning?the potential impact can be enormous. And yet, how is the designer of the technology supposed to factor all of those implications into the design of the technology__?__ Tough question. One way is for the designer to attempt to anticipate, as well as possible, what those implications may be. But, again, how can that be done__?__ This paper offers one possibility: value scenarios. Value scenarios are systematically constructed narratives for exploring the implications of a technology from the perspective of the stakeholders, the pervasiveness of the technology, the time frame of the effects, and the extent to which the effects are systemic. The paper provides two scenarios to illustrate how value scenarios can be used. The paper has merit to the extent that people who design new technologies really should think ahead about the potential impacts of those technologies. The notion of value scenarios does provide a little structure to that process. At the same time, value scenarios as described would require great creativity and insight on the part of the designer, and a designer with this level of creativity and insight might well be able to anticipate impacts without having to use a technique such as this. A larger problem is the fact that technologies evolve over time, and frequently find their way into unintended uses, for better or for worse. It is unlikely that the designers of a significant technology will be able to anticipate the evolution and unintended uses, much less the impacts of the unintended uses. So, while the paper is certainly well intended, it is not at all that clear how much value it really contributes to the discussion. Online Computing Reviews Service