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DCEnt‐PredictiveNet: : A novel explainable hybrid model for time series forecasting

Published: 01 December 2024 Publication History

Abstract

This work presents a novel hybrid framework called DCEnt-PredictiveNet (deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) + entropy + support vector regressor (SVR)) that concatenate both deep and handcrafted features for time series data analysis and forecasting. From the discrete wavelet transform coefficients of input time series data, computed four different handcrafted entropy features, which were then concatenated with deep features extracted using a modified DCNN. The concatenated deep and handcrafted feature vector was then fed to a SVR for prediction. The DCEnt-PredictiveNet framework was trained and tested on three time series datasets of real-world COVID-19, stock price and traffic information, and achieved mean absolute percentage errors of 0.03 %, 1.53 % and 11.41 % for daily cumulative COVID-19 positive cases, closing stock price, and hourly traffic (vehicle numbers) at one junction predictions, respectively. In addition, we incorporated local interpretable model-agnostic explanations and Shapley additive explanations methods into DCEnt-PredictiveNet to enable visualization of significant features that contributed to the model’s decision-making, thereby enhancing its explainability. Our DCEnt-PredictiveNet model yielded promising and interpretable forecasting results, which can facilitate advance resource planning in hospitals for incoming COVID-19 patients, stock market investment planning, and efficient traffic control management.

Highlights

Explainable hybrid framework called DCEnt-PredictiveNet for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is proposed.
Proposed architecture consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform, Convolutional Neural Network, Entropy and Support Vector Regression.
The proposed framework can be applied to three different areas: COVID, Traffic Flow and Stock Price predictions.
Proposed model is explainable – highlights the significant deep and hand-crafted features responsible for the prediction.
Achieved promising MAPE of 0.03 %, 1.53 %, and 11.41 % for COVID, stock price, and hourly traffic predictions respectively.

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cover image Neurocomputing
Neurocomputing  Volume 608, Issue C
Dec 2024
399 pages

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Elsevier Science Publishers B. V.

Netherlands

Publication History

Published: 01 December 2024

Author Tags

  1. Time series forecasting
  2. COVID prediction
  3. Stock price prediction
  4. Traffic flow
  5. Prediction
  6. CNN
  7. Entropy
  8. Explainable
  9. Interpretable

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