If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is one of the leaders with the most to fear after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also has reasons for concern. Leading Europe's largest economy, a crucial part of NATO and a key ally of Kiev, the Prime Minister risks seeing the military alliance weakened by the Republican and Russia strengthened if Trump negotiates a favorable deal for Moscow in the conflict.
It is in this context that Scholz tells Folha that his country will never accept a peace in the Ukraine War dictated by the Russians. "Probably no one in Europe longs for peace more than the Ukrainians," says the Social Democratic prime minister. "But we must be careful with false solutions that only contain peace in name. Peace without freedom is called oppression, and peace without justice is called dictatorship." In an email interview given days before his arrival in Brazil for the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Scholz also talked about his expectations for relations with the U.S. under Trump, comments on disagreements with the Lula government on current geopolitical issues, and defends his government's actions regarding immigration and the rise of the far right in Germany. The questions were sent before the collapse of the governing coalition, shaken by internal divisions and the management of a stagnant economy. The Prime Minister arrives in Brazil weakened, facing a vote of confidence in Parliament in December that is expected to dissolve the Legislature and call new elections for February—and polls indicate that Scholz, in power since 2021, is likely to lose his position.
The G20 is a forum that brings together countries with very different positions, such as Russia and Germany, China and the United States. Is it still possible to expect these multilateral forums to contribute to political solutions in such a polarized scenario? How much room for cooperation is there between geopolitical adversaries?
Precisely in the face of various global challenges, it is important to use the G20 to promote fair and sustainable development for all countries in the world. We must make it clear that the G20 members represent over 80% of global economic production, 75% of world trade, and 60% of the global population. Therefore, we have a special responsibility: our decisions can be a path forward for all. Brazil also meets this requirement in its Presidency of the G20 with a clear agenda. It aims to reduce inequality and poverty, promote energy transition and climate financing, and provide an important boost to global governance reform. I fully support these priorities of President Lula. They are fundamental to global prosperity and to our cooperation on all continents. At the Delhi summit, by including the African Union, we reinforced the role of the Global South [a term referring to developing countries] in the G20, and we want to expand this cooperation even further in Rio. Given all this, one thing is clear to me: as long as Russia, as a member of the G20, does not end this war against Ukraine that violates international law and continues to violate the principles of the UN Charter, there is no basis for a partnership based on trust and cooperation within the bloc.
You met with President Lula in bilateral meetings on two occasions during this term. Since then, Brasília's stance critical of Israel's actions, a close ally of Berlin, has intensified. Would you have preferred President Lula to have a different view regarding the conflict in the Middle East?
On October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorists brutally murdered over 1,200 Israelis. Hundreds more were kidnapped to Gaza. This was a heinous attack that violated all rules and principles of humanity. Germany's position is clear. Israel has the right to defend itself. This means that Israel must also have the right to prevent Hamas from continuing to perpetrate this kind of terror. However, it is equally clear that the rules of international law also apply to Israel. The human suffering in Gaza is immense. An agreement on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages, who have been held for over a year, is urgently needed. A reliable political process that leads to a negotiated two-state solution is essential for a sustainable end to the conflict—we agree with the Brazilian government on this point.
More than a year after the October 7, 2023 attacks, Israel is increasingly isolated in the international arena, with countries like Brazil and even France calling for an end to arms shipments to the Netanyahu government. How do you view this issue? Is there a discussion about re-evaluating Germany's arms supply to Tel Aviv?
I emphasize once again that Israel has the right to defend itself. In doing so, our Israeli partners can count on Germany's solidarity. This also includes ensuring Israel's defense capability, for example, by providing weapons and military equipment. In each individual case, this is done after careful evaluation of the situation [by Berlin]. At the same time, we recognize the victims on all sides and stand in solidarity with them—both in Israel and Gaza. It is of fundamental importance for the German government that more humanitarian aid reaches Gaza, that the norms of international law are respected, and that the perspective of a two-state solution is maintained.
An attack carried out in August by a refugee shocked the German population, and shortly afterward, the far-right AfD party achieved significant results in regional elections with an anti-immigration agenda. The coalition led by you approved measures in Parliament that should facilitate the deportation of immigrants. In your view, was this the necessary response to this situation?
It is not an issue of immigrants by themselves. We want to open legal migration routes and, at the same time, prevent irregular migration. More and more countries in Europe depend on immigration of new workers, and this is particularly true for Germany. And there is the fundamental right to asylum, which is important to us. At the same time, this must be clear: those who do not have the right to stay in Germany must return to their country of origin. The federal government drew its conclusions from the attack in Solingen and presented a comprehensive security package. This is the response to current threats. The idea is to facilitate the deportation of people who are required to leave the country and assist the authorities in the fight against violent Islamism. The goal is, therefore, to strengthen security in Germany.
Economists point out that for countries in demographic crisis, like Germany, immigration represents an opportunity for economic growth. How do you view this issue? Does Germany no longer have an interest in being a country of immigrants?
Quite the opposite. Germany is a country of immigration with probably one of the most liberal regulations in the world. This is because it wants and needs to be attractive to skilled workers from all over the world. That is why we adopted the Skilled Worker Immigration Act and created new access routes. Skilled workers from abroad can now work in Germany more quickly and with less bureaucracy. This type of immigration has nothing to do with irregular immigration.
Regarding the AfD, which is officially monitored by Germany's internal intelligence service, there is a discussion about a potential ban on the party. Do you consider such a measure reasonable? What danger does the AfD pose to German democracy?
The instrument of party prohibition is established in our Constitution as a last resort, and for good reason. Such a measure would need to be carefully studied. The competent authorities must gather information and assess whether a party is extremist and unconstitutional in whole or in part. Currently, it is not on the federal government's agenda to request such a measure from the Federal Constitutional Court [Germany's Supreme Court]. For us, it is important to deal with any extremist forces, first and foremost, politically. This is the task of all democratic parties.
How do you expect Donald Trump's victory to impact relations between Germany and the United States? His statements about NATO could lead European countries to invest in an independent security architecture?
Germany and the U.S. are deeply connected—politically and economically, but also at the human level. Together, we have always worked successfully for peace and stability in the world. We want to maintain this cooperation, even with the newly elected U.S. president. Of course, this includes the issue of security in Europe. This is another area in which we want to continue the successful cooperation of recent decades. We cannot forget that together, we managed to keep the peace in Europe for many years. Russia's attack on Ukraine has brutally changed that.
This forces European countries to intensify their defense efforts, and that is why we have already significantly increased our investment in security and defense in recent years. In 2024, for the first time, we will spend 2% of our GDP on this area. We will continue to do so, not only to share the defense burdens between us and the U.S. but also for our own security.
Reports from the Ukraine War suggest that Kiev's army has been losing ground, and a victory by force seems distant. When will the time come to negotiate with Russia to reach a negotiated end to the war? What conditions do you think are necessary?
Probably no one in Europe longs for peace as much as the Ukrainians. But we must be careful with false solutions that only contain peace in name. Peace without freedom is called oppression, and peace without justice is called dictatorship. That is why we support Ukraine's demands for a just peace that respects the principles of the UN Charter and those of territorial integrity and independence. For me, this means that we will support Ukraine in its right to self-defense—for as long as necessary. Putin needs to understand that trying to buy time will not work. We will not give up our support for Ukraine.
Based on this, we are jointly exploring all possibilities to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. We agree with Kiev on holding another conference after the first peace conference in Switzerland in June. Russia should also participate in it. We can only achieve peace in Ukraine based on international law, and this will require enormous efforts. However, the attempt to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine remains the guiding principle of our joint action. We certainly will not accept a peace dictated by Russia.
X-RAY | OLAF SCHOLZ, 66
Born in 1958 in Osnabrück, West Germany at the time, he holds a law degree from the University of Hamburg and has been a member of the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany) since 1975. He was a member of the German Parliament for 13 years and headed the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs from 2007 to 2009. Mayor of Hamburg from 2011 to 2018, he held top positions in the SPD and was Minister of Finance and Vice Chancellor in Angela Merkel's government from 2018 to 2021. He has been the Prime Minister of Germany since December 2021.