NFL

NFL Prop Bets Payday: Week 11 player prop picks and predictions

John Holler

Sportsbook Wire

We're coming off a great week last week (4-1) and we're picking our shots on who we believe have been given prop numbers that are too high to expect or too low to ignore. Below, we look at five NFL player prop bets for Week 11, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Week 11 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:40 a.m. ET.

Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 74.5 rushing yards (-114)

Taylor has topped 100 yards in four of his last five games (he had 70 in the other) and is seeing his carries per game on the increase. The Colts leaned on Taylor when they needed a win against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs last year and he finished with 78 yards on 21 carries.

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He is the critical player in the Colts offense and the offensive line has been built around taking advantage of his ability. Taylor should have 15-20 carries if the Colts can keep this one close and that should be enough to hit the Over.

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Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-112)

McCaffrey is in his third game back from injury. One of the reasons this number is so low is that he had just 14 and 13 carries in his first two games back. However, he looks ready to cut loose and the Panthers desperately need a win over the Washington Football Team to stay in the hunt for the postseason.

The Panthers are going to lean on him heavily until he either gets hurt again or Carolina falls out of playoff contention. He likely will only need to break off one big run to get over that small number and should have a chance with around 15 carries to do that.

Also see:All Week 11 odds and lines

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 270.5 passing yards (-114)

Rodgers has had his share of struggles against the Minnesota Vikings, especially on the road, although he carved up the Vikings last season when they missing a lot of their top defensive players and were painfully thin in the backfield. Rodgers is capable of putting up more than 270 yards on anybody, but Minnesota's season is on the line (as well as the jobs of the head coach and G.M.).

Without his dual-threat featured back ( Aaron Jones) and his starting left tackle ( David Bakhtiari), the entire Packers offense is going to be forced to change in a hostile environment. Receiver Davante Adams is going to see a lot of double coverage and blitz pressure will be coming. He may need a 70-yard pass mixed in to top this number because he will likely be throwing a lot of dink-and-dunk passes Sunday.

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Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller UNDER 6.5 receptions (-149)

Defenses have been collapsing on Waller since the Raiders no longer have Henry Ruggs to keep them honest. Waller has caught seven or more passes just once since Week 2 and has only been targeted more than seven times twice. For a player of his talent, that is amazing.

He has caught a total of six passes in two career games as a Raider against the Bengals. Asking him to catch seven passes when he's likely to be chipped and/or doubled more plays than not by an aggressive Bengals defense is a lot. Derek Carr is a good enough QB not to throw into double coverage when it isn't necessary. While Waller has the talent to hit this number, I just don't think he'll get the opportunities - he'd have to catch everything thrown his way.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris OVER 80.5 rushing yards (-114)

The Steelers started the year 1-3 before making the conscious decision to lean on their rookie running back. Harris averaged less than 14 carries a game through the first four games of the season, which makes hitting 80 yards difficult, but Pittsburgh has gone 4-0-1 in its last five games to save its season.

Is it a coincidence that in those games Harris has had 23, 24, 26, 22 and 26 carries? 1-3 when it doesn't lean on him, 4-0-1 when it does. Hmm. He'll go over this number if he hits 20 carries - 23 or 24 carries just gives you more insurance. Even when he's getting short yardage on several carries in a row, Pittsburgh keeps going to him, which is good for those eyeballing the Over.

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