NHL draft's second and third tiers still shaping up

This year's draft is a deep one overall that will see quality prospects well into the third round. But while Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin have clearly separated themselves at the top, the second and third tiers have yet to come into sharp focus.

Most would agree that Mitch Marner and Dylan Strome are in that second grouping. But do they sit alone as the second tier with another dropoff after them, or does the group run deeper?

Good question, but we haven't been able to discern a clear answer as of yet. For Red Line Report, there are another eight to 10 players who have, at various times, shown they are capable of being considered with the likes of Marner and Strome. But none have consistently elevated themselves to that level.

Over the past six weeks, we feel big Finnish winger Mikko Rantanen has come on strong to join the discussion. And certainly the currently injured Pavel Zacha has shown enough to be considered.

Until recently, offensive Swedish defenseman Oliver Kylington was in the mix, but his horrid performance at this month's Five Nations tournament in the Czech Republic scared the hell out of us, if we were a club picking in the five to eight range.

Two players where we find ourselves at odds with the NHL consensus are Kingston power winger Lawson Crouse and Sherbrooke blue-liner Jeremy Roy. We keep hearing that Crouse is firmly in the top six to eight. And while we like him, we haven't seen enough offense to place him in our top 10 yet.

Roy, on the other hand, has drawn mixed reviews and seems to be dropping on most teams' boards. But we're holding steady on the puck-moving stud being a top 10 pick because we see a real "It" factor at play with him. He just has a presence and impact that we love.

Out west, a trio of centers has our firm attention: Nick Merkley, Matthew Barzal, and Jansen Harkins have all shown terrific puck skill and playmaking abilities.

And then Russian winger Denis Guryanov came along with some eye-popping speed and power at the Five Nations event to insert himself as a late entry into the discussion.

We're not saying these are the only contenders, either. Certainly there are other who could enter the mix. But as of today, those are guys Red Line views as the front-runners.

PHOTOS: Red Line Report's Top 10 draft prospects

Rising

Joel Eriksson-Ek (Färjestad): His size, two-way game, and ability to make plays on the move is outstanding. Plus, there's the wicked shot.

Jack Roslovic (U.S. National Team Development Program): Was one of the most consistently dangerous forwards at the Five Nations. Dynamic improvement in his playmaking and on-ice presence.

Timo Meier (Halifax): His improvement is tied to seeing the ice better and using his linemates more. He's processing the game much better.

Julius Nättinen (Jyvaskyla): We knew he was skilled, but he was lethal on the power play, and one of the most skilled forwards at the Five Nations.

Zach Senyshyn (Sault Ste. Marie): Big, powerful winger who skates hard every shift and makes a point of getting involved in the highest traffic areas.

Loik Leveille (Cape Breton): All three of Red Line's scouts who have seen him in the past month have come away thinking his game and decision-making have taken a leap forward.

Falling

Every Swedish defenseman — Oliver Kylington (Färjestad), Jesper Lindgren (MoDo) , and Jacob Larsson (Frölunda) at times looked lost at the Five Nations.

Jesse Gabrielle (Regina): We loved his game to start the season, but he has done little to capitalize on the increased offensive opportunity he has received in Regina.

News and notes from around the scouting community

-What a month it has been for surprise performances out west. We think we've sniffed out two legitimate draft prospects who essentially failed to make their respective major junior teams to start the season. Before you call us crazy, hear us out.

Brayden Burke has produced immediately since showing up in Lethbridge after failing to stick with Red Deer. A huge scorer in midget, Burke still desperately needs to fill out his undersized frame, but we love everything else about him.

Crafty player uses great hockey sense to constantly sneak behind the play, capitalizing on chances when he does. Supports the puck all over the ice and shows great flow to his game. Always makes himself an outlet to receive a pass. Uses tight stickhandling to weave through traffic and extend plays. We see no reason he won't become a big scorer in the Western Hockey League and his hockey IQ should allow him to make the jump to the pros someday.

-After being cut by Regina last September, Adam Berg went to the Calgary Mustangs and showed as one of the top prospects available in the Alberta Tier II circuit. In a midseason call-up by the Pats, we were able to catch him in multiple viewings and he looked the part playing with Red Line favorite Austin Wagner.

Working a tireless offensive zone cycle, he helped the Pats dominate puck possession whenever he was on the ice. His confidence level continued to increase during his stint with Regina and in the last few games he started to get rewarded for frequently getting pucks through to the net. Berg is a strong skater for his size and it's not hard to get him confused with Wagner when they are out together.

-One nice story line that came out of last month's CHL Top Prospects Game was the showing of oft-injured Ottawa 67s goalie Liam Herbst. Herbst was considered the top goaltending prospect in Ontario at the age of 15, but has endured a debilitating string of injuries over the past three years — including serious knee and hip injuries that have to be a concern for any teenaged netminding prospect. His unbelievable run of bad luck resulted in Herbst playing a grand total of nine games over the past three seasons.

Herbst — a Sept. 14, 1996, birthdate — was technically eligible for last year's draft, though he would have been the draft's youngest player and only played the equivalent of seven games split between London and Ottawa. So it's a true testament to the kid's perseverance that he has finally emerged again as a solid-looking prospect.

Herbst was very strong against top-notch shooters in the Prospects Game, and has been the backbone in net the past two months as the Ottawa franchise has finally begun to turn the corner into relevance once again. At 6-4, 195 pounds, Herbst has the requisite size NHL clubs are looking for, and has worked hard to regain his form and athletic gifts.

And for sure, he already knows all about overcoming adversity.

Kyle Woodlief is editor and chief scout of Red Line Report. Follow him on Twitter @daredlinereport.