Saturday Tailgate: Evaluating contenders for BCS bowls

• Three teams have a shot at the AAC%27s one and only automatic BCS bid
• A one-loss Clemson team could be highly attractive to BCS selectors
• Fresno State is in good position to represent the non-AQ leagues in the BCS

Even if Alabama and Florida State control the fate of the BCS National Championship Game, several additional teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision enter the final weeks of the regular season within range of a BCS berth. Some are playing for an automatic BCS bid, like Baylor in the Big 12, Oregon in the Pac-12 and Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference. Others remain in line for an at-large BCS bid, like Clemson in the ACC.

Entering Week 13 of the 2013 season, here's where the top tier of the FBS stand in the BCS race.

(All scenarios stand alone; for example, assumptions made for one team do not extend to another team's BCS path. The roads to the BCS also include a dose of reason: It's easy to envision how Clemson can reach a BCS bowl, for example, but harder to imagine how the Tigers can play for the national title. More unrealistic scenarios are not evaluated.)

Central Florida (9-1), American. To take the American's automatic bid, UCF needs to beat South Florida and SMU to finish 8-0 in league play. The Knights can also win the conference by taking one of two and having Louisville lose once. If UCF and Cincinnati end the year tied atop the conference at 7-1, UCF would likely win the league's bid as a result of its higher ranking in the final BCS standings.

Louisville (9-1), American. The Cardinals need to win out and have UCF lose twice. That would leave Louisville at 7-1 and UCF at 6-2, negating the Knights' head-to-head tiebreaker.

Cincinnati (8-2), American. As noted, Cincinnati would need to win out, beating Louisville along the way, to finish 7-1 in league play. Because they don't play the Knights during the regular season, the Bearcats would also need UCF to lose to USF and SMU to go 6-2.

Florida State (10-0), ACC. To win the ACC title, FSU needs to defeat the winner of the Coastal Division on Dec. 7. To play for the national title, the Seminoles need to beat Idaho, Florida and the Coastal representative.

Clemson (9-1), ACC. No longer eligible for the ACC crown, Clemson's hopes of earning an at-large BCS bid demand a victory against rival South Carolina in the season finale. If FSU goes 13-0 and plays for the national title, Clemson would be very appealing to the BCS.

Baylor (9-0), Big 12. To reach the national championship game, Baylor would need to beat Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas, and have one of Florida State and Alabama lose before the postseason. Even then, the Bears would land a stiff challenge from Ohio State for the second spot in the BCS. Baylor can still win the Big 12 outright by defeating Oklahoma State and Texas.

Oklahoma State (9-1), Big 12. The Cowboys will win the Big 12 by beating Baylor and Oklahoma. That would leave the Cowboys at 8-1 overall in league play, with tiebreakers against the Bears and Longhorns.

Texas (7-3), Big 12. It's a tough road. Texas would need to win out and finish 8-1 in Big 12 play. The Longhorns would then need Oklahoma State to beat Baylor and then lose to Oklahoma. That would leave Texas at 8-1 and Baylor and Oklahoma State at 7-2.

Michigan State (9-1), Big Ten. The Spartans could earn an at-large bid by finishing 11-1 and losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. MSU could obviously land the league's automatic bid to the Rose Bowl by beating the Buckeyes.

Ohio State (10-0), Big Ten. OSU can still play for the national title by going 13-0 and having Alabama or FSU lose once – though, in a reverse scenario, Baylor could be in play for second in the final BCS standings. Reaching the Rose Bowl demands an easier road: OSU can clinch the Legends Division by beating Indiana or Michigan, and then take the Big Ten by knocking off Michigan State on Dec. 7.

Wisconsin (8-2), Big Ten. Winning the Legends would demand the impossible – Indiana and Michigan beating the Buckeyes. But Wisconsin would be very much a contender for an at-large bid by going 10-2. That could get the Badgers a BCS spot even if OSU doesn't play for the national title.

Northern Illinois (11-0), MAC. NIU could miss out on another BCS berth even if it finishes 13-0, thanks to Fresno State. But if Fresno loses and the Huskies win out, they could earn a trip to the BCS by finishing higher than the winner of the American in the final BCS standings.

Fresno State (9-0), Mountain West. Fresno currently holds a pretty sizable advantage in the BCS standings against Northern Illinois. By winning out and finishing ahead of the American winner, the Bulldogs are likely headed to the BCS.

Oregon (9-1), Pac-12. Three of the four undefeated teams would need to lose in order for Oregon to have a chance at reaching the BCS championship game. What's more likely, barring a huge surprise, is that the Ducks play in the Rose Bowl by beating Arizona, Oregon State and the Pac-12 South Division winner to go 12-1.

Stanford (8-2), Pac-12. With its at-large hopes crippled by losses to Utah and USC, Stanford's hope is that Oregon loses one of two to end the regular season; that would give the Cardinal the North Division. Stanford would then play Arizona State, UCLA or USC for a shot at the Rose Bowl.

Arizona State (8-2), Pac-12. Arizona State would need to beat UCLA this weekend and then beat either Oregon or Stanford in the Pac-12 title game to reach the Rose Bowl.

UCLA (8-2), Pac-12. UCLA would need to beat Arizona State and USC to win the South Division, then top the North winner in the conference championship game.

USC (8-3), Pac-12. USC needs to root for UCLA to beat Arizona State – a weird feeling, I know – and then beat the Bruins a week later. In addition, the Trojans need Arizona to beat ASU to remove the Sun Devils' tiebreaker. If this occurs, USC would be 7-2 in the Pac-12, UCLA would be 7-2 and ASU 6-3. Then comes Oregon or Stanford in December.

Missouri (9-1), SEC. The Tigers can take the SEC East Division by beating Mississippi and Texas A&M to finish 7-1 in league play. One loss, however, would hand the division to South Carolina. Even if Missouri loses to Alabama or Auburn on Dec. 7, it would be in play for the SEC's second BCS bid with an 11-2 record.

South Carolina (8-2), SEC. Even if Missouri wins out, South Carolina would have a BCS case to make by virtue of wins against the Tigers and rival Clemson – the latter in the season finale. The Gamecocks could also take the more traditional route of winning the East and taking the SEC title game.

Alabama (10-0), SEC. Easy, and familiar: Alabama will reach the BCS title game by beating Chattanooga, Auburn and the winner of the SEC East. The Tide would also reach an at-large BCS bowl by beating Chattanooga and finishing either 11-1 (losing to Auburn on Nov. 30) or 12-1 (losing the SEC title game).

Auburn (10-1), SEC. Can Auburn play for the national title? Only with some help. (A lot of help.) But the Tigers have two roads to the BCS. One entails beating Alabama to win the SEC West Division and then winning the SEC championship. The second involves a loss to Alabama joined by losses from Texas A&M, Missouri and South Carolina, the latter to Alabama on Dec. 7. Make sense? If Auburn is 10-2, A&M 9-3, Missouri 10-2 and South Carolina 10-3, the Tigers would land the SEC's at-large bid. It gets complicated.

Texas A&M (8-2), SEC. Well, let's see. Auburn absolutely needs to lose to Alabama – and by the more the better. A&M needs to beat LSU and Missouri on the road. South Carolina needs to lose to Alabama as well. That would leave the Aggies 10-2, and make Johnny Manziel and A&M a very attractive candidate for an at-large bid.

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Interim coach Ed Orgeron and USC will face Colorado in the snow today. Former Trojans coach Lane Kiffin said Friday that Orgeron deserves many more days on the Trojans sideline.

Speaking of Orgeron, CBSSports.com evaluated interim coaches who were elevated to the permanent job since 1992.

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Football Four is on Twitter @TheFootballFour. Paul Myerberg, a national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports, is on Twitter @PaulMyerberg.

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