Bold predictions: Royals repeat as World Series champions
As the 2016 Major League Baseball season begins, USA TODAY Sports' baseball staff lays out its bold predictions for the six months ahead:
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Advanced metrics don’t seem to favor the Kansas City Royals. Once again, statistical prognosticators aren’t picking them to reach the playoffs, let alone repeat as World Series champions.
Why shouldn’t Kansas City defy doubters again, as it did in 2014 and 2015? There’s no reason the Royals shouldn’t be the favorites to be baseball’s first repeat World Series champion since the 2000 New York Yankees.
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The team has most of it most crucial members back, minus starter Johnny Cueto, who wasn’t effective down the stretch; outfielder Alex Rios, who fizzled in his one season with them (.640 on-base-plus-slugging percentage); and reliever Ryan Madson, who should be spelled by the addition of Joakim Soria. Much more important is the return of most of the key figures from the bullpen that overwhelmed the competition in October.
The opportunistic, contact-first offense also returns. The Royals’ offensive execution was so successful last season that several teams have tried this offseason to emulate Kansas City by adding contact guys to their rosters (not to mention beefing up their bullpens to shorten games).
You might say that because other clubs will be doing things the way the Royals do this season, their game plan will be blunted by teams throwing the same strategy back at them. But the Royals are likely to again prove to be best at the strategy. In consecutive runs to the World Series, they have crafted a winning machine with the perfect combination of attacking hitters, aggressive baserunners, strong defense and relievers who shut down opponents from the sixth inning on.
Every member of the roster seems to make a critical contribution, such as a defensive substitution or a pinch-hit from Christian Colon or a stolen base from Jarrod Dyson. The Royals might lack a superstar, but they have well-oiled parts that work well in unison.
Most teams would take their bullpen, which had the AL’s best ERA (2.72) last season by more than a half a run, over a 40-homer hitter. Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar and Wade Davis have overpowered opponents, and Kansas City has added Soria (8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.53 ERA, 1.094 WHIP last season). The bullpen allows the Royals to hold leads or stay within striking distance, as they did in Game 4 of last year’s AL Division Series before an eight-run outburst buried the Houston Astros.
2016 MLB predictions: Our World Series picks
The bullpen makes the Royals dangerous in October, whether they sneak in as a wild card or win the AL Central. It’s hard to pick against the Royals in a winner-take-all game.
Yes, the rotation finished last in innings and 12th in the AL in ERA last season, but Kansas City won 95 games. The Royals have added an innings eater in starter Ian Kennedy, a fresh bullpen arm in Soria and essentially another one in Danny Duffy, who appears to be shifting from the rotation and has thrived in brief relief opportunities in his career.
This team and its approach are familiar, which should frighten its foes.
