France's far-right Marine Le Pen hopes no-shows hand her Trump-like upset
PARIS — Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen hopes to stage a Donald-Trump-like upset in Sunday's runoff, but her best chance depends on far-left voters boycotting the presidential election.
That could happen because polls show up to a quarter of French voters don't like either of the two candidates and could abstain from voting, which might help her close a sizeable gap her opponent holds in the latest polls.
Many are repulsed by Le Pen's fiery rhetoric against immigrants, particularly Muslims, and continued French membership in the European Union. Others are turned off by front-runner Emmanuel Macron's background as a former investment banker and what they see as his support for the status quo.
In a televised debate Wednesday night, the candidates hurled harsh attacks at each other. Le Pen assailed Macron's financial connections and said he is a defender of "savage globalization." Macron called Le Pen an extremist who poses a "threat to our institutions."
Post-debate polls showed Macron the clear winner of the confrontation, as he headed into the campaign's final stretch with a double-digit lead.
"Many voters feel a sincere repulsion for the National Front and for Marine Le Pen. They don't want her for president,” said Serge Galam, who studies elections at the French National Center for Scientific Research. “But to show this they have to cast their ballot for Macron. Many voters feel an aversion to Macron. A good number of them will look for any excuse to forget to cast their ballot."
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Macron, running as an independent centrist who has never held elective office, leads Le Pen 59% to 41% in the latest Cevipof/IPSOS/France 3 poll. But 24% are likely to sit out the election, possibly eroding Macron's lead. A poll by Boston-based Suffolk University Political Research Center showed Macron leading, 47% to 31%, with 15% saying they intended to leave their ballots blank and 7% undecided.
Leaders of France's two mainstream parties, which have ruled the country since the end of World War II, were defeated in the first round of voting April 23 and quickly endorsed Macron. However, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, likened to Sen. Bernie Sanders in the United States, has refused to endorse the front-runner.
Mélenchon came in a surprising fourth place with 19.6% of the vote in the first round, and two-thirds of his supporters would probably not vote or leave their ballots blank Sunday, according to a recent online survey.
Macron, 39, founder of a new third party, En Marche (Forward), criticized the mainstream parties during the campaign, but now depends on their supporters to become the youngest president in French history.
"They will have to swallow a bitter pill on voting day," Galam said.
Macron’s supporters argue that his image as a political maverick will appeal to French voters looking for change after suffering through years of economic stagnation and a series of terror attacks, problems that plagued unpopular incumbent François Hollande, who decided against seeking a second term.
Macron "is reshuffling the political cards of the country,” said student Kevin Le Nouail, 24. “He is offering a true overhaul of political life."
Le Nouail acknowledged that a large number of abstentions Sunday "could create an upset" for Le Pen, 48, who would be the first woman to lead France.
Le Pen supporters are expected to turn out en masse, and she is climbing in the polls — a 5-point bump since Monday. Like Trump in the U.S. election, Le Pen is very popular in rural areas and among French who resent an influx of immigration, especially from Muslim nations.
Her gain in the polls comes as Le Pen's National Front plays up Macron’s lack of experience. Macron served as economy minister under Hollande.
"People don't really know what Macron's platform is," said National Front supporter Aymeric Merlaud, 25, a student. "They elected a face on a glazed paper, a poster boy, on the evening of the first round," Merlaud said of the telegenic candidate. "But I'm not certain that it's enough to make a good president."
Le Pen has been portrayed by her opponents as an extremist whose father and National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, was a Nazi sympathizer.
Nathalie Dulac, 55, is one of those who supported Mélenchon in the first round but doesn't like Macron. “Personally I will not vote in the second round," she said.
She doesn't like Le Pen either and would consider voting for Macron if he didn't have such a big lead in the polls. "If it had been closer, I would think differently maybe," Dulac said.