Cook Political Report: Trump likely to win, avoid contested covention
A new analysis by the non-partisan Cook Political Report concludes that the odds of a contested Republican convention have "dramatically declined" after Donald Trump's big victories this week in five key Northeast primaries.
"For the first time since mid-March, (Trump is) ahead of where we estimate he needs to be to reach 1,237 delegates and clinch the GOP nomination," wrote David Wasserman in a column posted Friday. "In fact, current polling in the remaining ten states is consistent with a scenario in which Trump could capture as many as 1,400 delegates by June 7. Indiana is now a must win for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTrump movement, but the odds of a contested convention have dramatically declined."
Trump has won 956 bound delegates, Wasserman wrote, "But if you include 32 additional 'unbound' delegates from Pennsylvania and other states that have publicly stated their support for Trump, Trump would only need 249 additional delegates — or 50 percent of the 502 remaining delegates — to reach 1,237. Sizing up the remaining states, he's extremely likely to get there."