Marriage ruling will impact 2016, not 2014, campaigns

Don't expect political fallout from the Supreme Court's action, or inaction, on same-sex marriage — at least not before next year when presidential campaigns get fully into gear.

In this fall's midterm elections, the issue isn't likely to surge to prominence as a result of the court allowing to stand lower court rulings upholding gay marriage — even in the closely contested Senate and governor's races in states immediately affected by court's actions.

In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker, who had backed the state's ban on same-sex marriage struck down by the federal court, said little about the issue Monday. "For us, It's over in Wisconsin,'' he said, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. As for a possible constitutional amendment on the issue, Walker said only, "Others will have to talk about the federal level.'' Walker is in a toss-up re-election contest against Democrat Mary Burke, who applauded the Supreme Court's action.

Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway called the action a "non-event'' for the November elections. "Voters are focused on other issues in the homestretch, and all of the Democratic candidates in hotly contested swing races are avoiding gay marriage almost as much as they are avoiding President Obama,'' she said.

Races are turning on local issues and the qualities of the candidates, said former Democratic National Committee spokesman Hari Sevugan. Same-sex marriage isn't on the ballot, "nor is there a readily identifiable proxy on the ballot.'' Impact on races from the Supreme Court action? "I don't see it.''

Same-sex marriage can still be a "wedge issue,'' said CNN political analyst Hilary Rosen, a Democrat. "But the edge of that wedge doesn't cut nearly enough to win elections. Indeed, GOP candidates for marriage have a better shot to win independents if they support it.'' Though some candidates may use the issue to try to turn out conservative voters, "they do so at the peril of getting caught by the moderate middle," Rosen said.

A decade ago, Republicans encouraged a ballot referendum banning same-sex marriage as a way to ensure GOP voters would turn out in droves to pass it — and re-elect President George W. Bush in the process.

Now, more than half of Americans live in states where same-sex marriage is legal, and by the time they vote in the next presidential election, as many as 39 states could allow same-sex unions. Karl Rove, the Bush political strategist who engineering the ballot issues to help his candidate's re-election, said last year he could picture a GOP presidential nominee in 2016 who supports same-sex marriage.

"I've honestly never seen a social issue change as quickly as this one. It really is quite extraordinary,'' said Democratic political strategist Jim Manley, former spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "It doesn't mean that people won't try to exploit this, but depending on the district there's a decent chance they're going to get some blowback. It's not where the country's going, and it's not where the (Republican) party going.''

Democrats generally have been quicker to embrace same-sex marriage, but some, including Reid, President Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, have had to revise their positions — from supporting only civil unions to embracing marriage — as legalization spread.

Former senator Jim Webb of Virginia went on Meet the Press Sunday to talk about his potential presidential campaign — and got the issue out of the way quickly when he said he is "really comfortable" with the "evolution" of marriage laws.

Some Republicans said they would have liked the court to rule on the issue, including former GOP nominee Mitt Romney, who said on Bloomberg television Monday he would have liked a ruling "this year.''

That would settle the issue before the 2016 presidential race, which poses a different dynamic on same-sex marriage than the midterm elections in November. Next year, Republican presidential candidates will woo voters in Iowa, where social conservatives play a big role in the state's presidential caucuses, and South Carolina, usually among the first presidential primary states.

Former senator Rick Santorum, who opposes same-sex marriage, won the Iowa caucus in 2012 and has expressed interest in running for president again. So have Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, both opponents of same-sex marriage. Christie did not fight his state's Supreme Court ruling allowing same-sex marriage in New Jersey.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, also considering a presidential run, said Monday the Supreme Court action was "tragic and indefensible'' and "judicial activism at its worst." Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who has said he is considering running for president, said on CNN Friday that although he opposes same-sex marriage, "I don't really think the government needs to be too involved,'' and "a lot of people have rethought" opposition to legalization.

The issue resonates among Iowa Republicans because of the way same-sex marriage became legal in the state — through a 2009 state Supreme Court ruling, said Ed Kilgore, a Democratic political blogger. Social conservatives in the state organized a recall election and ousted three of the justices in a judicial retention election the next year.

"If the first (contest) were in New Hampshire, I'd be tempted to say this can kind of go away for them,'' he said. "But the particular salience of this issue for Iowa conservatives makes that problematic.''