How Sunak’s D-Day disappearance blindsided No 10

Shortly after 7am Sunak told aides of his decision to apologise, and at 7.45am he issued a brief, 127-word statement on Twitter/X. “After the conclusion of the British event in Normandy, I returned back to the UK,” he said. “On reflection, it was a mistake not to stay in France longer — and I apologise.”

Public apologies during election campaigns are rare. The last prominent one came in 2010, when Gordon Brown apologised after he was recorded calling Gillian Duffy, a Labour supporter, a “bigoted woman” after she raised concerns about the level of immigration.

Sunak’s mea culpa, however, was caveated. During a broadcast interview he said the decision not to attend the event with other world leaders had been made “weeks ago”. He had, he said, “fully participated in all the British events with the British veterans”.

His answer was revealing in and of itself. Shortly before Sunak called the general election he was presented with an itinerary by officials, with the international leaders’ event marked as “optional”. Sunak and his aides decided he should not attend in part because it was the “French event” and was therefore considered less significant.

• The Times view on D-Day tributes: Shadow Over Europe

The decision to return early was also driven by concerns about the amount of time Sunak was having to take off campaigning to perform his official duties as prime minister. This week’s D-Day commemorations lasted for two days, and next week the prime minister is attending the G7 summit of world leaders in Italy on Thursday and Friday. For a prime minister more than 20 points behind in the polls, getting back on the front foot and campaigning was viewed as more important.

It was a huge miscalculation. The event turned out to be the most poignant and the most photographed of the entire commemorations.

David Johnson, the children’s minister, found himself out of his depth on the morning round yesterday as he tried to answer the unanswerable — where was the prime minister during the commemoration? He replied to the best of his abilities, saying that he was only “the junior minister for education” and was “not party to the PM’s diary”.

The apology, however, did little to stifle the backlash. No 10 was forced to issue an extraordinary denial of persistent reports that Sunak had considered not travelling to Normandy at all.

Cabinet ministers were furious. “It’s a significant and very serious error,” one said. Another added: “The cut-through is huge because it’s wrong on every level… It’s a failure of leadership. The ­real question for this election is not whether Keir Starmer wins. That’s a given. It’s how many people are left on the green benches opposite.” After the fallout, the mood in Conservative Campaign Headquarters was described as “funereal”. One insider said: “I’ve never heard it so quiet.”

After Sunak’s apology, as the backlash grew into wall-to-wall coverage, staff were so rattled that they resorted to shouting profanities at the television. Labour strategists could not believe their luck. “It’s genuinely mind-boggling why he/they made that decision,” said one senior party figure.

On the back benches the despair was absolute. “It’s a shitshow, a total disaster,” said one Tory candidate who is expecting to lose their seat. “He’s made Theresa May’s 2017 campaign look competent. In an election that’s framed around defence and security it’s a spectacular misjudgment. It feels like the Reform crossover is inevitable now.”

The “crossover” feared by Tories is the point at which Reform overtakes the Conservative Party in the polls. The return of Nigel Farage to the political front line this week makes it a realistic possibility. Sunak’s decision to call an early election was motivated in part by the hope to kill off the threat of Farage.

At first it appeared to have worked, with Farage announcing that he would not stand. All that changed on Monday afternoon, however, when he ­announced he intended to lead a “political revolt”. He said that the Tories were “on the verge of collapse”, adding in typical Farage fashion that he had changed his mind because he thought the campaign was “the dullest, most boring election campaign we have ever seen in our lives” and needed “gingering up”.

On Wednesday he descended on Clacton-on-Sea, where he is standing, and repeated his message to hundreds of people on the seafront. His walkabout culminated in a woman throwing a banana milkshake over him.

Reform has the potential to seriously hit the Tory vote, particularly among those who backed the party when Boris Johnson was prime minister. An analysis by The Times this week suggested that a four-point Reform bounce in the polls would reduce the Tories to only 95 seats, while a five-point bounce would leave them with 78.

The Tories are now pinning their hopes on the manifesto, which is being launched on Tuesday. Tax cuts will feature prominently, including a pledge to permanently abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on the first £425,000 of a property’s value. Labour’s manifesto is expected to contain few surprises as Starmer attempts to make the target for the Tories as small as possible. It will be published on Thursday.

Civil servants have been put on notice to accelerate preparations for the incoming government next week. In one Whitehall department the focus on Labour was such that the permanent secretary gave a speech to staff saying they must make sure “we’re open to all of “Keir’s invigorating ideas”.