Ad Rates Are Now Really High in Swing States
The cost of running a single television advertisement has jumped in key markets across the country as candidates, party committees, and independent groups race to get their advertisements on the airwaves.
Pity the poor car dealer in Norfolk, Va. Advertising his business has become a lot more expensive in recent months, thanks to presidential campaigns and outside political groups that have poured millions into television advertising there -- and in dozens of other ad markets around the country.
The cost of running a single television advertisement has jumped in key markets across the country as candidates, party committees, and independent groups race to get their advertisements on the airwaves. Because the television market is finite and supply does not increase along with demand, prices spike as inventory shrinks.
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And that's starting to happen: In Norfolk earlier this year, a single gross ratings point -- the measure of how much of the population sees an advertisement -- cost $95; now, it's spiked to $250, according to some estimates. That's because presidential contenders and outside groups have spent more than $7.2 million in that market alone -- a market that reaches just 21 percent of the state's voters. Prices in Richmond, Va., have more than doubled; costs in Tampa, Las Vegas, Cleveland, and elsewhere have jumped 30 percent or more.
At the height of a campaign's advertising blitz, running 1,000 to 2,000 points is considered sufficient to reach everyone in a district enough to allow a message to sink in. President Obama, Mitt Romney and, in some cases, even Senate campaigns are already hitting those marks.
Campaigns and outside groups have planned for higher prices. It helps that a candidate pays a lower rate than an outside group, as Federal Communications Commission rules require, but even the lowest unit rates for which campaigns are eligible are spiking.
"If you're doing your job right, you always factor in some level of rate increases. But the campaigns are going to feel it too," said Carl Forti, a Republican strategist who helps make advertising decisions for Restore Our Future and American Crossroads. "It just reinforces how expensive some of these media markets are. You've got to be careful how you're spending your money."
Both Democrats and Republicans fighting for control of the Senate have moved to lock down their share of advertising time. That means campaigns are spending money much earlier on advertising that won't run until September or October. It's no longer practical to use just two metrics -- the amount a candidate has raised and how much they have on hand -- to judge its health. Now, observers must include the amount of television time the campaign has already purchased.