Why Not Pence?
The former vice president might be the GOP’s best bet to move past Trump and win in 2024.
The Republican Party’s strongest alternative to former President Donald Trump is in trouble. Trumpy Republicans want the real thing, not an imitation. Non-Trumpy Republicans just aren’t impressed. The candidate himself has yet to find a compelling message. The result is that once again, as in 2016, Trump is likely to prevail because Republicans cannot coalesce around an alternative—even though a candidate who is experienced in government, solidly conservative, and acceptable to most factions of the party is right there in front of them.
I speak, of course, of former Vice President Mike Pence.
Pence? Seriously? His polling is in the single digits. He had to scramble to get into the first Republican presidential debate. But Republicans, if they’re smart, won’t write him off, because he is their best bet to win in 2024 and move past Trump without splitting the party.
Consider the position Republicans find themselves in. First, and most obviously, their front-running candidate is fighting four criminal prosecutions. To say that this will be a distraction for him and the party is putting it mildly. Trump may be required to attend one or more of his trials in person. Even when he is not physically present, managing his trials will be a full-time job. His campaign, his social media, and his public persona will all be consumed by his legal problems, which are not what most voters want to hear about.
Regardless of Trump’s entanglement with the law, he is a lousy candidate. He has already lost once to Joe Biden, and nothing has changed dramatically in his favor since then. Biden has weaknesses of his own, but his flaws—his age, his lack of vision, his muddled messaging—recede into the background against Trump’s chaotic volatility. He is well positioned to run another version of his 2020 front-porch campaign, emphasizing his steadiness, the strong economy, and a thousand infrastructure projects while Trump noisily defeats himself. Biden is a weak incumbent who is strong only against Trump.
Even on his own terms, Trump is a bad bet. He lost the popular vote twice and drove Republican losses in 2018 and 2022. He is a turnout machine—for Democrats, who will walk over hot coals to vote against him. True, the plurality of the Republican base loves him, but many Republicans do not.
Figure that roughly a third of Republicans are Only Trumpers. They adore him and will not consider anyone else for the nomination. Perhaps another third are Anybody But Trumpers, who want to put Trump in the rear-view mirror. They will jump at a plausible, electable alternative, and almost anyone in the Republican field will do.
That leaves a third group, the Open-Minded Middle. They like Trump, maybe even love him, but are worried about his electability and will consider alternatives. They don’t want to see Trump bad-mouthed, but if the Republican Party were to coalesce around another candidate with a path to victory, they would rally to the cause.
What Republicans need, then, is a candidate who can gather enough Anybody But Trumpers and Open-Minded Middlers to win the nomination and then corral enough independents and swing voters to win the general election. Who is qualified for that job?
First, a candidate who is not Donald Trump and is not involved in multiple criminal trials. Enough said.
Second, a candidate with a reputation for probity and decency. That puts the party on high moral ground and allows it to highlight Biden’s problems with his wayward son, while appealing to voters who want an honest and law-abiding president.
Third, a low-risk proposition—someone who has governed at the highest levels and is ready for the White House; who has knowledge of world affairs and leaders; who has a steady temperament and can be trusted to keep the heat on Russia and not wreck NATO.
Fourth, a proven conservative who can plausibly sell himself as continuing the policies and appointments that conservatives admire without all the baggage and chaos that marred Trump’s effectiveness.
Fifth, someone with a strong connection to the party’s evangelical base. Though perhaps no one can rival Trump’s cultic hold on white evangelicals, a deeply convicted Christian who has actually read the Bible and can be relied on for solid judges and conservative policies would be more than adequate from evangelicals’ point of view.
Only one person checks all those boxes. No one else even comes close. The presumptive rival to Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has no foreign-policy experience, no message except anti-wokeness, and a persona that makes Grumpy Cat seem genial. He would unify Democrats in opposition and drive them to the polls as no one other than Trump himself will do. And, as of now, he is falling to pieces.
The three anti-Trump candidates—Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd—have no message other than being anti-Trump, and they alienate not just the party’s Only Trump faction but also its Open-Minded Middle, which tunes out candidates who repudiate Trump. Former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott have governing chops and personal appeal, and they have been shrewd about keeping Trump at a distance without seeming to attack him, but they are relative newbies and unknown quantities in national politics—high-risk propositions against an incumbent. The remaining candidates flunk the plausibility test.
In the days when party insiders played a key role in choosing presidential candidates, they looked for exactly the qualities that Mike Pence exhibits: the ability to govern, to unify the party, and to win in November. From their point of view, Pence should be the obvious favorite. Though humbled by Trump’s populist revolution, the party establishment still matters. It ought to be investing in Pence by talking up his chances, opening the dollar spigots, and offering support and endorsements. Party elders should see him, not DeSantis, as the logical alternative to Trump. They cannot coronate him (even if they wanted to), but they can boost his credibility now and signal that, should he do well in the early contests next year, they will quickly close ranks behind him.
The other Republican candidates should be prepared to do the same. In 2016, Trump won the nomination because too many candidates stayed in the race too long. In 2020, Biden won the presidency because most of the other candidates cleared the field for him as soon as he emerged as the front-runner. The lesson for Republicans is not rocket science. Strategic discipline—coalescing quickly around an alternative to Trump—is essential in 2024.
Of course, Pence’s chances depend mainly on Mike Pence. No amount of boosting can rescue him if he withers on the stump or voters simply don’t want him. Still, given his many strengths, pundits and politicians have been too quick to write him off. Remember, after all, the story of John McCain in 2008. Though his campaign seemingly collapsed, he came back to win the nomination because primary voters saw that he was their most electable candidate. Much the same happened to Biden himself in 2020.
The noisiest Republicans may love Trump’s abrasive style and entertainment value. But to most of the rank-and-file Republicans who show up at the polls, electability matters. On that score, Pence is far and away their strongest bet. Which is why smart Republicans should put money on him now. And if they wait too long? We know how that story ends.