Arnold J. Toynbee

A prominent British historian predicted that Europe would become more politically fragmented but more economically united.

BY ARNOLD J. TOYNBEE

The year after he came down from Oxford, ARNOLD J. TOYNBEE was a student in the British Archeological School at Athens. His sojourn in Greece had this effect: in the Athens cafés he became aware of current international affairs; and as he worked on the ruins of ancient civilizations, he began to ponder upon their relationship to our time. In 1915 Mr. Toynbee entered the service of the British Government; in 1925 he became Research Professor of International History at the University of London. Meantime his books were taking shape. In 1922 he jotted down on a half sheet of writing paper his bold original design for A Study of History and he has been writing at it ever since. Six volumes have already been published and there are more to come.

Nineteen civilizations have had their turn upon this planet during the 6000 years of recorded history. Today five of them survive — all in different states of development — and our lives depend upon their striking a balance. With Olympian discernment ARNOLD J. TOYNBEE,one of the most eminent living historians,examines these five contending civilizations in an effort to foretell which will survive if man elects to live in peace,and which will survive if the most civilized of us run amok.